Balmaseda M.A.,European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts |
Mogensen K.,European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts |
Weaver A.T.,European Center for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society | Year: 2013
A new operational ocean reanalysis system (ORAS4) has been implemented at ECMWF. It spans the period 1958 to the present. This article describes its main components and evaluates its quality. The adequacy of ORAS4 for the initialization of seasonal forecasts is discussed, along with the robustness of some prominent climate signals. ORAS4 has been evaluated using different metrics, including comparison with observed ocean currents, RAPID-derived transports, sea-level gauges, and GRACE-derived bottom pressure. Compared to a control ocean model simulation, ORAS4 improves the fit to observations, the interannual variability, and seasonal forecast skill. Some problems have been identified, such as the underestimation of meridional overturning at 26°N, the magnitude of which is shown to be sensitive to the treatment of the coastal observations. ORAS4 shows a clear and robust shallowing trend of the Pacific Equatorial thermocline. It also shows a clear and robust nonlinear trend in the 0-700 m ocean heat content, consistent with other observational estimates. Some aspects of these climate signals are sensitive to the choice of sea-surface temperature product and the specification of the observation-error variances. The global sea-level trend is consistent with the altimeter estimate, but the partition into volume and mass variations is more debatable, as inferred by discrepancies in the trend between ORAS4- and GRACE-derived bottom pressure. © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.
Terray L.,European Center for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation
Geophysical Research Letters | Year: 2012
Observed North Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures have changed in a non-monotonic and non-uniform fashion over the last century. Here we assess the relative roles of greenhouses gases, anthropogenic aerosols, natural forcings and internal variability to the North Atlantic surface temperature decadal fluctuations using multi-model climate simulations driven by estimates of observed external forcings. While the latter are the main source of decadal variability in the tropics and subtropics, there is a large contribution from the unforced component to subpolar Atlantic variations. Reconstruction of forced response patterns suggests that anthropogenic forcings are the main causes of the accelerated warming of the last three decades while internal variability has a dominant contribution to the early 20th-century temperature multi-decadal swings and recent abrupt changes in the subpolar Atlantic. Significant inter-model spread with regard to the spatial response patterns to anthropogenic forcing leads to substantial uncertainty as to robust attribution statements for the mid-to-late 20th century North Atlantic warm and cold periods. © 2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Boe J.,European Center for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation
Climate Dynamics | Year: 2013
How soil moisture affects precipitation is an important question-with far reaching consequences, from weather prediction to centennial climate change-, albeit a poorly understood one. In this paper, an analysis of soil moisture-precipitation interactions over France based on observations is presented. A first objective of this paper is to investigate how large scale circulation modulates soil moisture-precipitation interactions, thanks to a weather regime approach. A second objective is to study the influence of soil moisture not only on precipitation but also on the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Indeed, to have a total positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback, the potential decrease in precipitation associated with drier soils should be larger than the decrease in evapotranspiration that drier soils may also cause. A potential limited impact of soil moisture on precipitation is found for some weather regimes, but its sign depends on large scale circulation. Indeed, antecedent dry soil conditions tend to lead to smaller precipitation for the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) regime but to larger precipitation for the Atlantic Low regime. This differential response of precipitation to soil moisture anomalies depending on large scale circulation is traced back to different responses of atmospheric stability. For all circulation regimes, dry soils tend to increase the lifted condensation level, which is unfavorable to precipitation. But for the negative phase of the NAO, low soil moisture tends to lead to an increase of atmospheric stability while it tends to lead to a decrease of stability for Atlantic Low. Even if the impact of soil moisture anomalies varies depending on large scale circulation (it is larger for Atlantic low and the positive phase of the NAO), dry soils always lead to a decrease in evapotranspiration. As the absolute effect of antecedent soil moisture on evapotranspiration is always much larger than its effects on precipitation, for all circulation regimes dry soil anomalies subsequently lead to positive precipitation minus evapotranspiration anomalies i. e. the total soil moisture feedback is found to be negative. This negative feedback is stronger for the Atlantic Low and the positive phase of the NAO regimes. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.
Agency: Cordis | Branch: H2020 | Program: RIA | Phase: EINFRA-5-2015 | Award Amount: 4.95M | Year: 2015
ESiWACE will substantially improve efficiency and productivity of numerical weather and climate simulation on high-performance computing platforms by supporting the end-to-end workflow of global Earth system modelling in HPC environment. This will be obtained by improving and supporting (1) scalability of models, tools and data management on state-of-the-art supercomputer systems (2) Usability of models and tools throughout the European HPC eco-system, and (3) the Exploitability of the huge amount of resulting data. We will develop solutions for cross-cutting HPC challenges particular to the weather and climate domain. This will range from the development of specific software products to the deployment of user facing services for both, computing and storage. ESiWACE leverages two established European networks, namely (1) the European Network for Earth System modelling, representing the European climate modelling community and (2) the world leading European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The governance structure that defines the services to be provided will be driven by the European weather and climate science community. Weather and climate computing have always been one of the key drivers for HPC development, with domain specific scientific and technical requirements that stretch the capability and capacity of existing software and hardware to the limits. By developing solutions for Europe and at European scale, ESiWACE will directly impact on the competitiveness of the European HPC industry by engendering new products, providing opportunities for exploitation beyond the project itself, and by enhancing the skills base of staff in both industry and academia. ESiWACE will be at once thematic, as it focuses on the HPC application domain of climate and weather modeling, transversal, as it covers several aspects of computational science, and challenge-driven, as climate and weather predictability represents a major societal issue.
Agency: Cordis | Branch: H2020 | Program: RIA | Phase: EINFRA-5-2015 | Award Amount: 5.69M | Year: 2015
The aim of the present proposal is to establish an Energy Oriented Centre of Excellence for computing applications, (EoCoE). EoCoE (pronounce Echo) will use the prodigious potential offered by the ever-growing computing infrastructure to foster and accelerate the European transition to a reliable and low carbon energy supply. To achieve this goal, we believe that the present revolution in hardware technology calls for a similar paradigm change in the way application codes are designed. EoCoE will assist the energy transition via targeted support to four renewable energy pillars: Meteo, Materials, Water and Fusion, each with a heavy reliance on numerical modelling. These four pillars will be anchored within a strong transversal multidisciplinary basis providing high-end expertise in applied mathematics and HPC. EoCoE is structured around a central Franco-German hub coordinating a pan-European network, gathering a total of 8 countries and 23 teams. Its partners are strongly engaged in both the HPC and energy fields; a prerequisite for the long-term sustainability of EoCoE and also ensuring that it is deeply integrated in the overall European strategy for HPC. The primary goal of EoCoE is to create a new, long lasting and sustainable community around computational energy science. At the same time, EoCoE is committed to deliver high-impact results within the first three years. It will resolve current bottlenecks in application codes, leading to new modelling capabilities and scientific advances among the four user communities; it will develop cutting-edge mathematical and numerical methods, and tools to foster the usage of Exascale computing. Dedicated services for laboratories and industries will be established to leverage this expertise and to foster an ecosystem around HPC for energy. EoCoE will give birth to new collaborations and working methods and will encourage widely spread best practices.