EuroMediterranean Center on Climate Change

Viterbo, Italy

EuroMediterranean Center on Climate Change

Viterbo, Italy
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Sierra J.P.,Polytechnic University of Catalonia | Sierra J.P.,Center Internacional Dinvestigacio Dels Recursos Costaners Ciirc | Genius A.,Polytechnic University of Catalonia | Lionello P.,University of Salento | And 6 more authors.
Ocean Engineering | Year: 2017

Harbours are essential infrastructures for economic activity that are susceptible to impacts from climate change driven processes, like sea level rise (SLR), or alterations in wave patterns. In this paper, the impact of climate change on wave agitation in ports (oscillations due to wind waves) and, therefore, on port operability is analyzed. This is carried out through a numerical model suite, considering the RCP8.5 scenario to project changes in wave fields, and three values of SLR. The study is particularized for the port of Barcelona (NW Mediterranean), but the used methodology can be applied to other harbours. Results suggest that changes due only to waves will be minimal and with a general trend to slightly decrease wave agitation. On the contrary, the effect of SLR and the associated increase of water depth will favor the penetration of waves within the harbour, leading to a certain reduction of port operability, the magnitude of which will depend on the SLR value. However, the complexity of wave patterns within the harbours, due to multiple reflections of waves on port structures, implies that the reduction of operability strongly varies according to the position and orientation of the berthing zones inside the harbour. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd

Standardi G.,EuroMediterranean Center on Climate Change | Standardi G.,Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei | Cai Y.,CSIRO | Cai Y.,Australian National University | Yeh S.,Chalmers University of Technology
Energy Economics | Year: 2017

Model differences in technological and geographical scales are common, but their contributions to uncertainties have not been systematically quantified in the climate policy literature. This paper carries out a systematic assessment on the sensitivity of Computable General Equilibrium models to technological and geographical scales in evaluating the economic impacts of carbon mitigation policies. In particular, we examine the impacts of sub-national details and technological details of power generation on the estimate of carbon price and economic cost. Taking Italy as an example, we find that the estimation for carbon price and the economic cost of a de-carbonization pathway by means of a model with technological and regional details can be lower than a model without such details by up to 40%. Additionally, the effect of representing regional details appears to be far more important than the effect of representing the details of electricity technology in both the estimated carbon prices and the estimated economic impacts. Our results for Italy highlight the importance of modeling uncertainties of these two key assumptions, which should be appropriately acknowledged when applying CGE models for policy impact assessment. Our conclusions can be generalized to different countries and policy scenarios not in terms of absolute numbers but in terms of economic explanations. In particular, intra-national trade and the sub-national sectoral/technological specialization are important variables for understanding the economic dynamics behind these outcomes. © 2017 Elsevier B.V.

Sanchez-Arcilla A.,Polytechnic University of Catalonia | Sanchez-Arcilla A.,Center Internacional Dinvestigacio Dels Recursos Costaners Ciirc | Sierra J.P.,Polytechnic University of Catalonia | Sierra J.P.,Center Internacional Dinvestigacio Dels Recursos Costaners Ciirc | And 6 more authors.
Regional Environmental Change | Year: 2016

The potential impact of climate change on port operations and infrastructures has received much less attention than the corresponding impact for beach systems. However, ports have always been vulnerable to weather extremes and climate change could enhance such occurrences at timescales comparable to the design lifetime of harbour engineering structures. The analysis in this paper starts with the main climatic variables affecting harbour engineering and exploitation. It continues with a review of the available projections for such variables first at global scale and then at a regional scale (Catalan coast in the western Mediterranean) as a study case for similar environments in the planet. The detailed assessment of impacts starts from downscaled projections for mean sea level and wave storms (wind not considered in the paper). This is followed by an analysis of the port operations and infrastructure performance that are relevant from a climate perspective. The key climatic factors here considered are relative sea level, wave storm features (height, period, direction and duration) and their combined effect, which is expected to produce the highest impacts. The paper ends with a discussion and some examples of analyses aiming at port adaptation to future climate change. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

Garcia-Herrera R.F.,Complutense University of Madrid | Lionello P.,University of Salento | Lionello P.,EuroMediterranean Center on Climate Change | Ulbrich U.,Free University of Berlin
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences | Year: 2014

There is an increasing interest of scientists on climate extremes. A progressively larger number of papers dealing with climate issues have been produced in the past 15 yr, and those dealing with extremes have increased at an even faster pace. The number of papers on extremes in the Mediterranean follows this overall trend and confirms how extremes are perceived to be important by the scientific community and by society. This special issue (which is mainly related to activities of the MedCLIVAR (Mediterranean CLImate VARiability and Predictability) and CIRCE (Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment) projects), contains thirteen papers that are representative of current research on extremes in the Mediterranean region. Five have precipitation as its main target, four temperature (one paper addresses both variables), and two droughts; the remaining papers consider sea level, winds and impacts on society. Results are quite clear concerning climate evolution toward progressively hotter temperature extremes, but more controversial for precipitation, though in the published literature there are indications for a future increasing intensity of hydrological extremes (intense precipitation events and droughts). Scenario simulations suggest an attenuation of extreme storms, winds, waves and surges, but more results are requested for confirming this future change. © Author(s) 2014.

Rillo V.,EuroMediterranean Center on Climate Change | Zollo A.L.,EuroMediterranean Center on Climate Change | Zollo A.L.,Italian Aerospace Research Center | Mercogliano P.,EuroMediterranean Center on Climate Change | And 2 more authors.
2nd IEEE International Workshop on Metrology for Aerospace, MetroAeroSpace 2015 - Proceedings | Year: 2015

Convective clouds are among the most dangerous meteorological phenomena for aviation because they are responsible of the presence of thunderstorms causing heavy rains, hailstorms, lightnings, wind shear, turbulence and icing phenomena. For this reason it is crucial to detect and early forecast them. In the present work different algorithms have been implemented for reaching this aim using Meteosat Second Generation satellite data and comparing brightness temperatures of two satellite images in different channels. In addition convective clouds have been simplified in order to report on board only the relevant information about hazardous areas to be avoided during the flight and to reduce the information weight. In order to provide forecasts in the following 24-48 hours, the algorithms developed have been applied to synthetic satellite images produced by the radiative transfer model RTTOV, a model simulating the radiances and brightness temperatures as they could be seen from satellite. © 2015 IEEE.

Pastorello G.,Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory | Agarwal D.,Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory | Papale D.,University of Tuscia | Samak T.,Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory | And 7 more authors.
Proceedings - 2014 IEEE 10th International Conference on eScience, eScience 2014 | Year: 2014

Observational data are fundamental for scientific research in almost any domain. Recent advances in sensor and data management technologies are enabling unprecedented amounts of observational data to be collected and analyzed. However, an essential part of using observational data is not currently as scalable as data collection and analysis methods: data quality assurance and control. While specialized tools for very narrow domains do exist, general methods are harder to create. This paper explores the identification of data issues that lead to the creation of data tests and tools to perform data quality control activities. Developing this identification step in a systematic manner allows for better and more general quality control tools. As our case study, we use carbon, water, and energy fluxes as well as micro-meteorological data collected at field sites that are part of FLUXNET, a network of over 400 ecosystem-level monitoring stations. In an effort toward the release of a new global data set of fluxes, we are doing data quality control for these data. The experience from this work led to the creation of a catalog of issues identified in the data. This paper presents this catalog and its generalization into a set of patterns of data quality issues that can be detected in observational data. © 2014 IEEE.

Chiti T.,University of Tuscia | Chiti T.,Euromediterranean Center on Climate Change | Grieco E.,University of Tuscia | Grieco E.,Euromediterranean Center on Climate Change | And 6 more authors.
Plant and Soil | Year: 2014

Background and aims: In the Jomoro district in Ghana, tree plantations were the first cause of deforestation in the past, drastically reducing the area occupied by primary forests. The aim of this study was to quantify soil organic carbon (SOC) losses due to a change in land use from primary forest to tree plantations (cocoa, coconut, rubber, oil palm) on the different substrates of the district. Secondary forests and mixed plantations were also included in the study. Methods: Soils were sampled at different depths up to 100 cm along a series of chronosequences in each of the three substrates (Granite, Lower Birrimian and Tertiary Sands) present in the area. Results: The highest SOC losses in the 0-30 cm layer were caused by the conversion of primary forests to tree plantations: cocoa -61 % of the original SOC stock, coconut -55 %, rubber -35 % and oil palm 28 %, while mixed plantations and secondary forests showed a loss of 23 % and 21 % of the original SOC stock, respectively. C losses were less apparent from the entire profile (to a depth of 100 cm). Conclusions: All conversions to tree plantations caused substantial SOC losses, comparable to the conversion of forests to agricultural systems. Secondary forests and mixed plantations were the only sustainable land uses that restricted SOC losses considerably. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Conte D.,EuroMediterranean Center on Climate Change | Lionello P.,EuroMediterranean Center on Climate Change | Lionello P.,University of Salento
Global and Planetary Change | Year: 2013

This study analyzes large positive and negative storm surges along the Mediterranean coast in a 7-member climate model ensemble covering the period 1951-2050 under the A1B emission scenario. A hydro-dynamical shallow water model (HYPSE, Hydrostatic Padua Sea Elevation model) is driven by 6-hourly meteorological fields produced by the state-of-the-art global and regional climate models that have been used in the CIRCE fp6 project (Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment). Model validation is based on the comparison of a model hindcast (1958-2001) and climate simulations with observed sea level (SL) values at 21 tide gauges. The accuracy of the models in reproducing large positive and negative storm surges appears to depend primarily on the quality of the atmospheric forcing (which is mainly related to their space resolution). Also the resolution of the hydro-dynamical model is somehow relevant along some stretches of the coastline. Climate signal is computed as the difference between the surge statistics in the 2021-2050 and 1971-2000 periods. The choice of the global climate simulation, which is used for the boundary conditions of the regional climate models, is shown to be the largest source of uncertainty for the assessment of the climate change signal. Other, less relevant, sources of uncertainty are the choice of the regional climate model and that of the hydro-dynamical model resolution. In spite of these uncertainties, the model ensemble mean shows a modest (about -. 5%), but clear and widespread decrease of the amplitude of both positive and negative large storm surges along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea. However, increase of mean SL and land subsidence (which are not considered in this study) might increase significantly the hazard posed by coastal floods in spite of the likely attenuation of storminess that is caused by climate change in the Mediterranean Sea.© 2013 Elsevier B.V.

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