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Pieprzyk B.,ERA Energy Research Architecture | Lahl U.,TU Darmstadt
International Journal of Technology | Year: 2013

ILUC is the abbreviation for Indirect Land Use Change. ILUC predictions mainly depend on the assumptions about how the additional agricultural demand for biomass production is covered. But iLUC due to agricultural growth varied strongly in the past among the different regions worldwide. Therefore, we analyzed the correlation between the development of the agricultural production and the land use changes and investigated which options (expansion of the agricultural area, increasing productivity, forest clearing etc.) supplied the feedstock demand for the growing agriculture sector in the past. Our investigations altogether show what the essential option for the increase of the biomass production has been and how it is related to the intensification of the usage of existing agricultural area, globally and even in countries with a high deforestation rate. Besides this the analysis of the main drivers of land use change in the past due to agriculture growth is essential for iLUC predictions and prevention policy. One driver was the loss of agricultural land in important areas all over the world. Our analysis shows that governance has a central influence on the development of land use. If the decoupling of production increase from the expansion of agricultural area for biomass production into nature areas wants to be achieved, it will have to happen via governance in the relevant countries. Therefore, instruments have to be developed and implemented that are able to regulate land use sophistically corresponding to the individual countries. © IJTech 2013. Source


Pieprzyk B.,ERA Energy Research Architecture | Hilje P.R.,ERA Energy Research Architecture | Kortluke N.,Municipality of Wetzlar
Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining | Year: 2013

Our report analyzes the substitution of marginal oil with biofuels. For that, we evaluate the effects that infl uence the substitution process in the short, mid and long term. We identify OPEC, resource nationalism, and geopolitical issues as important infl uence factors and arrive at the conclusion that in the short term biofuels will replace mainly OPEC oil but not the most expensive petroleum. In the medium and long term biofuels will replace the most expensive petroleum because OPEC production cuts are only possible on a temporary basis and in restricted quantities. Our comparison of the costs of the different fossil fuels with their greenhouse gas emissions shows that there is no direct correlation between the level of greenhouse gas emissions and production costs. However, we see strong evidence every time that the marginal oil gets more carbon-intensive and that biofuels will increasingly displace these carbon-intensive fossil fuels. That is shown especially in the increase of unconventional fossil fuels and new frontier oil (Amazon, deep-sea, etc.). The investments in these technologies are very price-sensitive, like the financial crisis 2008/2009 has showed. Further evidence brings the decline of the energy return on investment (EROI) of the oil production worldwide and the increase of the marginal oil costs from 25 to almost 100 dollars/barrel in the last 10 years. We expect that the increase of the carbon intensity of marginal oil will further enlarge the climate effects of global petroleum production. Marginal oil as an indirect effect of the biofuel use should therefore get the same significance value as indirect land-use change (ILUC) in the current climate protection debate. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Source


Pieprzyk B.,ERA Energy Research Architecture | Rojas Hilje P.,ERA Energy Research Architecture | Kortluke N.,Municipality of Wetzlar
Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining | Year: 2013

Our report analyzes the substitution of marginal oil with biofuels. For that, we evaluate the effects that influence the substitution process in the short, mid and long term. We identify OPEC, resource nationalism, and geopolitical issues as important influence factors and arrive at the conclusion that in the short term biofuels will replace mainly OPEC oil but not the most expensive petroleum. In the medium and long term biofuels will replace the most expensive petroleum because OPEC production cuts are only possible on a temporary basis and in restricted quantities. Our comparison of the costs of the different fossil fuels with their greenhouse gas emissions shows that there is no direct correlation between the level of greenhouse gas emissions and production costs. However, we see strong evidence every time that the marginal oil gets more carbon-intensive and that biofuels will increasingly displace these carbon-intensive fossil fuels. That is shown especially in the increase of unconventional fossil fuels and new frontier oil (Amazon, deep-sea, etc.). The investments in these technologies are very price-sensitive, like the financial crisis 2008/2009 has showed. Further evidence brings the decline of the energy return on investment (EROI) of the oil production worldwide and the increase of the marginal oil costs from 25 to almost 100 dollars/barrel in the last 10years. We expect that the increase of the carbon intensity of marginal oil will further enlarge the climate effects of global petroleum production. Marginal oil as an indirect effect of the biofuel use should therefore get the same significance value as indirect land-use change (ILUC) in the current climate protection debate. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Source

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