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O'Hagan J.J.,Centers for Disease Control and Prevention | O'Hagan J.J.,IHRC Inc. | Wong K.K.,NCIRD | Campbell A.P.,Epidemiology and Prevention Branch | And 5 more authors.
Clinical Infectious Diseases

Following the detection of a novel influenza strain A(H7N9), we modeled the use of antiviral treatment in the United States to mitigate severe disease across a range of hypothetical pandemic scenarios. Our outcomes were total demand for antiviral (neuraminidase inhibitor) treatment and the number of hospitalizations and deaths averted. The model included estimates of attack rate, healthcare-seeking behavior, prescription rates, adherence, disease severity, and the potential effect of antivirals on the risks of hospitalization and death. Based on these inputs, the total antiviral regimens estimated to be available in the United States (as of April 2013) were sufficient to meet treatment needs for the scenarios considered. However, distribution logistics were not examined and should be addressed in future work. Treatment was estimated to avert many severe outcomes (5200-248 000 deaths; 4800-504 000 hospitalizations); however, large numbers remained (25 000-425 000 deaths; 580 000-3 700 000 hospitalizations), suggesting that the impact of combinations of interventions should be examined. © 2015 © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. Source

Donnelly C.A.,Imperial College London | Finelli L.,Epidemiology and Prevention Branch | Cauchemez S.,Imperial College London | Doshi S.,National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases | And 8 more authors.
Clinical Infectious Diseases

A critical issue during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic was determining the appropriate duration of time individuals with influenza-like illness (ILI) should remain isolated to reduce onward transmission while limiting societal disruption. Ideally this is based on knowledge of the relative infectiousness of ill individuals at each point during the course of the infection. Data on 261 clinically apparent pH1N1 infector-infectee pairs in households, from 7 epidemiological studies conducted in the United States early in 2009, were analyzed to estimate the distribution of times from symptom onset in an infector to symptom onset in the household contacts they infect (mean, 2.9 days, not correcting for tertiary transmission). Only 5% of transmission events were estimated to take place >3 days after the onset of clinical symptoms among those ill with pH1N1 virus. These results will inform future recommendations on duration of isolation of individuals with ILI. © 2011 The Author. Source

Garg S.,Epidemiology and Prevention Branch | Garg S.,Centers for Disease Control and Prevention | Chaves S.S.,Epidemiology and Prevention Branch | Perez A.,Epidemiology and Prevention Branch | And 10 more authors.
Clinical Infectious Diseases

Influenza antiviral treatment is recommended for all persons hospitalized with influenza virus infection. During the 2010-2011 influenza season, antiviral treatment of children and adults hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza declined significantly compared with treatment during the 2009 pandemic (children, 56 vs 77; adults, 77 vs 82; both P <. 01). © 2012 The Author. Source

Garg S.,Epidemiology and Prevention Branch | Jain S.,Epidemiology and Prevention Branch | Dawood F.S.,Epidemiology and Prevention Branch | Jhung M.,Epidemiology and Prevention Branch | And 15 more authors.
BMC Infectious Diseases

Background: Influenza and pneumonia combined are the leading causes of death due to infectious diseases in the United States. We describe factors associated with pneumonia among adults hospitalized with influenza. Methods: Through the Emerging Infections Program, we identified adults ≥ 18 years, who were hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza during October 2005 through April 2008, and had a chest radiograph (CXR) performed. Pneumonia was defined as the presence of a CXR infiltrate and either an ICD-9-CM code or discharge summary diagnosis of pneumonia. Results: Among 4,765 adults hospitalized with influenza, 1392 (29 %) had pneumonia. In multivariable analysis, factors associated with pneumonia included: age ≥ 75 years, adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.27 (95 % confidence interval 1.10-1.46), white race AOR 1.24 (1.03-1.49), nursing home residence AOR 1.37 (1.14-1.66), chronic lung disease AOR 1.37 (1.18-1.59), immunosuppression AOR 1.45 (1.19-1.78), and asthma AOR 0.76 (0.62-0.92). Patients with pneumonia were significantly more likely to require intensive care unit (ICU) admission (27 % vs. 10 %), mechanical ventilation (18 % vs. 5 %), and to die (9 % vs. 2 %). Conclusions: Pneumonia was present in nearly one-third of adults hospitalized with influenza and was associated with ICU admission and death. Among patients hospitalized with influenza, older patients and those with certain underlying conditions are more likely to have pneumonia. Pneumonia is common among adults hospitalized with influenza and should be evaluated and treated promptly. © 2015 Garg et al. Source

Thompson M.G.,Epidemiology and Prevention Branch | Naleway A.,Kaiser Permanente | Fry A.M.,Epidemiology and Prevention Branch | Ball S.,Abt Associates | And 6 more authors.

Background: Recently, lower estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against A(H3N2) virus illness among those vaccinated during the previous season or multiple seasons have been reported; however, it is unclear whether these effects are due to differences in immunogenicity. Methods: We performed hemagglutination inhibition antibody (HI) assays on serum collected at preseason, ~30 days post-vaccination, and postseason from a prospective cohort of healthcare personnel (HCP). Eligible participants had medical and vaccination records for at least four years (since July, 2006), including 578 HCP who received 2010-11 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine [IIV3, containing A/Perth/16/2009-like A(H3N2)] and 209 HCP who declined vaccination. Estimates of the percentage with high titers (≥40 and > 100) and geometric mean fold change ratios (GMRs) to A/Perth/16/2009-like virus by number of prior vaccinations were adjusted for age, sex, race, education, household size, hospital care responsibilities, and study site. Results: Post-vaccination GMRs were inversely associated with the number of prior vaccinations, increasing from 2.3 among those with 4 prior vaccinations to 6.2 among HCP with zero prior vaccinations (F[4,567] = 9.97, p < .0005). Thirty-two percent of HCP with 1 prior vaccination achieved titers >100 compared to only 11% of HCP with 4 prior vaccinations (adjusted odds ratio = 6.8, 95% CI = 3.1 - 15.3). Conclusion: Our findings point to an exposure-response association between repeated IIV3 vaccination and HI for A(H3N2) and are consistent with recent VE observations. Ultimately, better vaccines and vaccine strategies may be needed in order to optimize immunogenicity and VE for HCP and other repeated vaccinees. © 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Source

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