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Chiodi A.,University College Cork | Giannakidis G.,Center for Renewable Energy Sources CRES | Labriet M.,Eneris Environment Energy Consultants | Gallachoir B.,University College Cork | Tosato G.,Asatrem
Lecture Notes in Energy | Year: 2015

The role that energy modelling plays in improving the evidence base underpinning policy decisions is being increasingly recognized and valued. The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program is a unique network of energy modelling teams from all around the world, cooperating to establish, maintain and expand a consistent energy/economy/environment/engineering analytical capability mainly based on the MARKAL/TIMES family of models, under the aegis of the International Energy Agency. Energy systems models like MARKAL/TIMES models provide technology rich, least cost future energy systems pathways and have been used extensively to explore least cost options for transitioning to an energy secure system and a low carbon future. This chapter presents an overview of ETSAP’s history and objectives, introduces the main principles of energy system modelling and summarizes the different chapters of the book. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015.

Labriet M.,Eneris Environment Energy Consultants | Biberacher M.,Research Studios Austria Forschungsgesellschaft mbH | Holden P.B.,Open University Milton Keynes | Edwards N.R.,Open University Milton Keynes | And 2 more authors.
Lecture Notes in Energy | Year: 2015

Much research is still needed to understand the climate vulnerability of the energy sector and to identify cost-effective adaptation options. This chapter explores the coupling of the World TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM-WORLD) with an emulated version of the climate model PLASIM-ENTS to assess the impacts of future temperature and precipitation changes on the heating and cooling subsector and available hydropower. An absence of climate feedback induced by the adaptation of the energy system to future heating and cooling needs was found for a 1.6–5.7 °C range of long-term global mean temperature increase: when aggregated at the global level, some changes compensate others, and heating and cooling represent a relatively small contributor to total energy consumption. However, significant changes are observed at the regional level in terms of additional power capacity, mostly coal power plants, to satisfy the additional cooling needs. Reduced needs for heating affect gas and coal heating systems more than biomass and electric heaters, reflecting higher costs of these heating options in the longer term. Available hydropower is estimated to increase on a seasonal basis in most regions under future climate change. It could therefore contribute to supply the additional electricity needed for cooling in regions where both future cooling needs and hydropower potential are expected to increase. Hydropower results are however characterized by high uncertainty due to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes as well as the relatively coarse resolution of PLASIM-ENTS. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015.

Labriet M.,Eneris Environment Energy Consultants | Joshi S.R.,Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne | Vielle M.,Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne | Holden P.B.,Open University Milton Keynes | And 4 more authors.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change | Year: 2015

The energy sector is not only a major contributor to greenhouse gases, it is also vulnerable to climate change and will have to adapt to future climate conditions. The objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of changes in future temperatures on the heating and cooling services of buildings and the resulting energy and macro-economic effects at global and regional levels. For this purpose, the techno-economic TIAM-WORLD (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) and the general equilibrium GEMINI-E3 (General Equilibrium Model of International-National Interactions between Economy, Energy and Environment) models are coupled with a climate model, PLASIM-ENTS (Planet-Simulator- Efficient Numerical Terrestrial Scheme). The key results are as follows. At the global level, the climate feedback induced by adaptation of the energy system to heating and cooling is found to be insignificant, partly because heating and cooling-induced changes compensate and partly because they represent a limited share of total final energy consumption. However, significant changes are observed at regional levels, more particularly in terms of additional power capacity required to satisfy additional cooling services, resulting in increases in electricity prices. In terms of macro-economic impacts, welfare gains and losses are associated more with changes in energy exports and imports than with changes in energy consumption for heating and cooling. The rebound effect appears to be non-negligible. To conclude, the coupling of models of different nature was successful and showed that the energy and economic impacts of climate change on heating and cooling remain small at the global level, but changes in energy needs will be visible at more local scale. © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Kober T.,Energy Research Center of the Netherlands | Falzon J.,Energy Research Center of the Netherlands | van der Zwaan B.,Energy Research Center of the Netherlands | van der Zwaan B.,University of Amsterdam | And 4 more authors.
Energy Economics | Year: 2016

In this paper we investigate energy supply investment requirements in Latin America until 2050 through a multi-model approach as jointly applied in the CLIMACAP-LAMP research project. We compare a business-as-usual scenario needed to satisfy anticipated future energy demand with a set of scenarios that aim to significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the region. We find that more than a doubling of annual investments, in absolute terms, occurs in the business-as-usual scenario between 2010 and 2050, while investments may treble over the same time horizon when climate policies are introduced. Investment costs as share of GDP, however, decline over time in the business-as-usual scenario as well as the climate policy scenarios, as a result of the fast economic growth of the region. In the business-as-usual scenario, cumulative investments of 1.4 trillion US$ are anticipated between 2010 and 2050 in electricity supply. These investments increase when additional climate policies are introduced: under a carbon tax of 50 $/tCO2e in 2020 growing with a rate of 4%/yr, an additional 0.6 trillion US$ (+45%) of cumulative investment is needed. Climate control measures lead to increased investment in low-carbon electricity technologies, primarily based on wind and solar resources, as well as CCS applied to fossil fuels and biomass. Our analysis suggests that, in comparison to the business-as-usual case, an average additional 21 billion US$/yr of electricity supply investment is required in Latin America until 2050 under a climate policy aiming at 2°C climate stabilisation. Conversely, there is a disinvestment in fossil fuel extraction and transformation. For oil production, a growth to 130 billion US$ annual investment by 2050 is anticipated in a business-as-usual scenario. Ambitious climate policy reduces this to 28 billion US$. Mobilising the necessary additional investment capital, in particular for low-carbon energy technologies, will be a challenge. Suitable frameworks and enabling environments for a scale-up of public and private investment will be critical to help reach the required low-carbon energy deployment levels. © 2016 The Authors.

Clarke L.,Pacific Northwest National Laboratory | McFarland J.,U.S. Environmental Protection Agency | Octaviano C.,Massachusetts Institute of Technology | van Ruijven B.,U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research | And 11 more authors.
Energy Economics | Year: 2016

This paper provides perspectives on the role of Latin American and Latin American countries in meeting global abatement goals, based on the scenarios developed through the CLIMACAP–LAMP modeling study. Abatement potential in Latin America, among other things, is influenced by its development status, the large contributions of non-CO2 and land use change CO2 emissions, and energy endowments. In most scenarios in this study, the economic potential to reduce fossil fuel CO2 as well as non-CO2 emissions in Latin America in 2050 is lower than in the rest of the world (in total) when measured against 2010 emissions, due largely to higher emission growth in Latin America than in the rest of the world in the absence of abatement. The potential to reduce land use change CO2 emissions is complicated by a wide range of factors and is not addressed in this paper (land use emissions are largely addressed in a companion paper). The study confirms the results of previous research that the variation in abatement costs across models may vary by an order of magnitude or more, limiting the value of these assessments and supporting continued calls for research on the degree to which models are effectively representing key local circumstances that influence costs and available abatement options. Finally, a review of policies in place in several Latin American countries at the time of this writing finds that they would be of varying success in meeting the emission levels proposed by the most recent IPCC reports to limit global temperature change to 2 °C. © 2016

Labriet M.,Eneris Environment Energy Consultants | Nicolas C.,French Institute of Petroleum | Tchung-Ming S.,French Institute of Petroleum | Kanudia A.,KanORS EMR | Loulou R.,McGill University
Lecture Notes in Energy | Year: 2015

Uncertain conditions may deeply affect the relevance of deterministic solutions proposed by optimization or equilibrium models as well as leave the decision maker in a quandary at the moment of defining policy. This chapter presents two applications of stochastic programming and robust optimization to climate and energy decisions using respectively TIAM-WORLD at the global level and MIRET in the case of France. At the global level, stochastic analysis demonstrates that the hedging strategy usually presents a smoother technology transition and is not equivalent to an average of deterministic solutions. Combined with a parametric analysis of the probability of the future outlooks, the approach produces a hedging strategy where the energy system prepares early for high mitigation even in the case of a low probability for such an outcome. Moreover, some technologies appear to be particularly appealing since they penetrate more in the hedging than in deterministic strategies; the penetration of gas power without carbon capture and sequestration in China, coal power plants with carbon capture in India, renewable electricity in Central and South America are examples of these “super-hedging” choices. In the case of the French transportation sector, robust optimization illustrates the crucial role of biofuels as a robust mitigation strategy in both moderate and severe emission reduction cases. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015.

van der Zwaan B.,Energy Research Center of the Netherlands | van der Zwaan B.,University of Amsterdam | Kober T.,Energy Research Center of the Netherlands | Calderon S.,Sub Directorate of Sustainable Development | And 7 more authors.
Energy Economics | Year: 2015

In this paper we investigate opportunities for energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO2 abatement scenarios until 2050 we analyze what resources and technologies, notably for electricity generation, could be cost-optimal in the energy sector to significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the region. By way of sensitivity test we perform a cross-model comparison study and inspect whether robust conclusions can be drawn across results from different models as well as different types of models (general versus partial equilibrium). Given the abundance of biomass resources in Latin America, they play a large role in energy supply in all scenarios we inspect. This is especially true for stringent climate policy scenarios, for instance because the use of biomass in power plants in combination with CCS can yield negative CO2 emissions. We find that hydropower, which today contributes about 800 TWh to overall power production in Latin America, could be significantly expanded to meet the climate policies we investigate, typically by about 50%, but potentially by as much as 75%. According to all models, electricity generation increases exponentially with a two- to three-fold expansion between 2010 and 2050. We find that in our climate policy scenarios renewable energy overall expands typically at double-digit growth rates annually, but there is substantial spread in model results for specific options such as wind and solar power: the climate policies that we simulate raise wind power in 2050 on average to half the production level that hydropower provides today, while they raise solar power to either a substantially higher or a much lower level than hydropower supplies at present, depending on which model is used. Also for CCS we observe large diversity in model outcomes, which reflects the uncertainties with regard to its future implementation potential as a result of the challenges this CO2 abatement technology experiences. The extent to which different mitigation options can be used in practice varies greatly between countries within Latin America, depending on factors such as resource potentials, economic performance, environmental impacts, and availability of technical expertise. We provide concise assessments of possible deployment opportunities for some low-carbon energy options, for the region at large and with occasional country-level detail in specific cases. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.

Labriet M.,ENERIS Environment Energy Consultants | Cabal H.,CIEMAT | Lechon Y.,CIEMAT | Giannakidis G.,Center for Renewable Energy Sources CRES | Kanudia A.,KanORS Consultants and 4 CSC Market
Energy Policy | Year: 2010

Based on the European project RES2020, the analysis evaluates the energy strategies to be implemented in Spain in order to satisfy the EU Renewable Directive. The modelling framework relies on the technico-economic model TIMES-Spain, part of the Pan-European TIMES model used in the project. TIMES is a bottom-up technology rich optimisation model representing the whole energy systems of the countries. Among the results, it appears that the gap regarding the renewable deployment in Spain between the Business-as-Usual case (including the existing policies) and the EU Directive should be compensated mainly by the penetration of bioenergy in transport and industry, and by the implementation of conservation measures, which contribute to reduce the total energy demand and thus makes useless additional investments in renewable power plants compared to the Business-as-Usual case. Only higher climate mitigation ambitions result in an absolute increase in the renewable-based electricity generation compared to the Business-as-Usual case. Moreover, when allowed, Spain is offering renewable energy credits under the statistical transfer mechanism to other European countries. The cost increase of the modelled renewable and climate policies compared to the Business-as-Usual remains relatively minor. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calvin K.V.,Joint Global Change Research Institute | Beach R.,Research Triangle Institute | Gurgel A.,Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Labriet M.,Eneris Environment Energy Consultants | Loboguerrero Rodriguez A.M.,CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change
Energy Economics | Year: 2015

Nearly 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Latin America were from agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) in 2008, more than double the global fraction of AFOLU emissions. In this article, we investigate the future trajectory of AFOLU GHG emissions in Latin America, with and without efforts to mitigate, using a multi-model comparison approach. We find significant uncertainty in future emissions with and without climate policy. This uncertainty is due to differences in a variety of assumptions including (1) the role of bioenergy, (2) where and how bioenergy is produced, (3) the availability of afforestation options in climate mitigation policy, and (4) N2O and CH4 emission intensity. With climate policy, these differences in assumptions can lead to significant variance in mitigation potential, with three models indicating reductions in AFOLU GHG emissions and one model indicating modest increases in AFOLU GHG emissions. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.

Labriet M.,Eneris Environment Energy Consultants | Kanudia A.,KanORS EMR | Loulou R.,KanLo Consultants
Energy Economics | Year: 2012

This paper explores the impacts of long-term technology and climate uncertainties on the optimal evolution of the World energy system. Stochastic programming with the TIAM-World model is used for a parametric analysis of hedging strategies, varying the probabilities associated to each of two contrasted technology outlooks. The parametric analysis constitutes an original supplement to the computation of hedging strategies by identifying technologies that are robust under a broad range of probabilities of the two technology outlooks. Natural gas appears to be one of the most appealing robust options in an uncertain technological context, especially in China, given its relatively low emissions and the low capital cost of associated technologies. Natural gas and some other options are in fact considered as "super-hedging" actions, penetrating more in the hedging solution than in any of the deterministic scenarios. Nuclear power and CCS use are less robust: they depend much more on either the level of the climate target or the probabilities of the technology outlooks. The analysis also shows that technological uncertainty has a greater impact under milder climate targets than under more severe ones. Future research might consider a larger set of possible technology outlooks, as well as specific analyses focused on key characteristics of low-carbon technologies. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

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