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Clarke L.,Pacific Northwest National Laboratory | McFarland J.,U.S. Environmental Protection Agency | Octaviano C.,Massachusetts Institute of Technology | van Ruijven B.,U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research | And 10 more authors.
Energy Economics | Year: 2016

This paper provides perspectives on the role of Latin American and Latin American countries in meeting global abatement goals, based on the scenarios developed through the CLIMACAP–LAMP modeling study. Abatement potential in Latin America, among other things, is influenced by its development status, the large contributions of non-CO2 and land use change CO2 emissions, and energy endowments. In most scenarios in this study, the economic potential to reduce fossil fuel CO2 as well as non-CO2 emissions in Latin America in 2050 is lower than in the rest of the world (in total) when measured against 2010 emissions, due largely to higher emission growth in Latin America than in the rest of the world in the absence of abatement. The potential to reduce land use change CO2 emissions is complicated by a wide range of factors and is not addressed in this paper (land use emissions are largely addressed in a companion paper). The study confirms the results of previous research that the variation in abatement costs across models may vary by an order of magnitude or more, limiting the value of these assessments and supporting continued calls for research on the degree to which models are effectively representing key local circumstances that influence costs and available abatement options. Finally, a review of policies in place in several Latin American countries at the time of this writing finds that they would be of varying success in meeting the emission levels proposed by the most recent IPCC reports to limit global temperature change to 2 °C. © 2016 Source

Chiodi A.,University College Cork | Giannakidis G.,Center for Renewable Energy Sources CRES | Labriet M.,Eneris Environment Energy Consultants | Gallachoir B.,University College Cork | Tosato G.,ASATREM
Lecture Notes in Energy | Year: 2015

The role that energy modelling plays in improving the evidence base underpinning policy decisions is being increasingly recognized and valued. The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program is a unique network of energy modelling teams from all around the world, cooperating to establish, maintain and expand a consistent energy/economy/environment/engineering analytical capability mainly based on the MARKAL/TIMES family of models, under the aegis of the International Energy Agency. Energy systems models like MARKAL/TIMES models provide technology rich, least cost future energy systems pathways and have been used extensively to explore least cost options for transitioning to an energy secure system and a low carbon future. This chapter presents an overview of ETSAP’s history and objectives, introduces the main principles of energy system modelling and summarizes the different chapters of the book. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015. Source

Labriet M.,Eneris Environment Energy Consultants | Cabal H.,CIEMAT | Lechon Y.,CIEMAT | Giannakidis G.,Center for Renewable Energy Sources CRES | Kanudia A.,KanORS Consultants and 4 CSC Market
Energy Policy | Year: 2010

Based on the European project RES2020, the analysis evaluates the energy strategies to be implemented in Spain in order to satisfy the EU Renewable Directive. The modelling framework relies on the technico-economic model TIMES-Spain, part of the Pan-European TIMES model used in the project. TIMES is a bottom-up technology rich optimisation model representing the whole energy systems of the countries. Among the results, it appears that the gap regarding the renewable deployment in Spain between the Business-as-Usual case (including the existing policies) and the EU Directive should be compensated mainly by the penetration of bioenergy in transport and industry, and by the implementation of conservation measures, which contribute to reduce the total energy demand and thus makes useless additional investments in renewable power plants compared to the Business-as-Usual case. Only higher climate mitigation ambitions result in an absolute increase in the renewable-based electricity generation compared to the Business-as-Usual case. Moreover, when allowed, Spain is offering renewable energy credits under the statistical transfer mechanism to other European countries. The cost increase of the modelled renewable and climate policies compared to the Business-as-Usual remains relatively minor. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Source

Labriet M.,Eneris Environment Energy Consultants | Joshi S.R.,Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne | Vielle M.,Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne | Holden P.B.,Open University Milton Keynes | And 4 more authors.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change | Year: 2015

The energy sector is not only a major contributor to greenhouse gases, it is also vulnerable to climate change and will have to adapt to future climate conditions. The objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of changes in future temperatures on the heating and cooling services of buildings and the resulting energy and macro-economic effects at global and regional levels. For this purpose, the techno-economic TIAM-WORLD (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) and the general equilibrium GEMINI-E3 (General Equilibrium Model of International-National Interactions between Economy, Energy and Environment) models are coupled with a climate model, PLASIM-ENTS (Planet-Simulator- Efficient Numerical Terrestrial Scheme). The key results are as follows. At the global level, the climate feedback induced by adaptation of the energy system to heating and cooling is found to be insignificant, partly because heating and cooling-induced changes compensate and partly because they represent a limited share of total final energy consumption. However, significant changes are observed at regional levels, more particularly in terms of additional power capacity required to satisfy additional cooling services, resulting in increases in electricity prices. In terms of macro-economic impacts, welfare gains and losses are associated more with changes in energy exports and imports than with changes in energy consumption for heating and cooling. The rebound effect appears to be non-negligible. To conclude, the coupling of models of different nature was successful and showed that the energy and economic impacts of climate change on heating and cooling remain small at the global level, but changes in energy needs will be visible at more local scale. © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Source

Labriet M.,Eneris Environment Energy Consultants | Biberacher M.,Research Studios Austria Forschungsgesellschaft MbH | Holden P.B.,Open University Milton Keynes | Edwards N.R.,Open University Milton Keynes | And 2 more authors.
Lecture Notes in Energy | Year: 2015

Much research is still needed to understand the climate vulnerability of the energy sector and to identify cost-effective adaptation options. This chapter explores the coupling of the World TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM-WORLD) with an emulated version of the climate model PLASIM-ENTS to assess the impacts of future temperature and precipitation changes on the heating and cooling subsector and available hydropower. An absence of climate feedback induced by the adaptation of the energy system to future heating and cooling needs was found for a 1.6–5.7 °C range of long-term global mean temperature increase: when aggregated at the global level, some changes compensate others, and heating and cooling represent a relatively small contributor to total energy consumption. However, significant changes are observed at the regional level in terms of additional power capacity, mostly coal power plants, to satisfy the additional cooling needs. Reduced needs for heating affect gas and coal heating systems more than biomass and electric heaters, reflecting higher costs of these heating options in the longer term. Available hydropower is estimated to increase on a seasonal basis in most regions under future climate change. It could therefore contribute to supply the additional electricity needed for cooling in regions where both future cooling needs and hydropower potential are expected to increase. Hydropower results are however characterized by high uncertainty due to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes as well as the relatively coarse resolution of PLASIM-ENTS. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015. Source

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