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Elovitz K.M.,Energy Economics Inc.
ASHRAE Journal | Year: 2014

An important element of an engineer's responsibility When designing an HVAC system is to prepare plans and specifications that provide the level of information reasonably required to construct the project in conformance with applicable codes and sound design practice. The end suction pump and the air cooled chiller are two examples of the situations engineers encounter every day when they evaluate proposed equals. The engineer must be sure the specifications match the basis of design, and enforce the specs fairly and uniformly. He should be clear preferably in the contract documents, about who is responsible for minor or not so minor design or coordination changes. Public contracts typically strongly encourage the engineer to identify multiple suppliers in the name of fostering competition. An engineer should read guide specs carefully before incorporating them into a project specification. Not every manufacturer's product is suitable for every application. Some products are better suited for certain niches than others.

Calvin K.,Pacific Northwest National Laboratory | Wise M.,Pacific Northwest National Laboratory | Luckow P.,Energy Economics Inc. | Kyle P.,Pacific Northwest National Laboratory | And 2 more authors.
Climatic Change | Year: 2016

The magnitude and character of the global resource base of fossil fuels is a key determinant of the evolution of the future global energy system and corresponding fossil fuel carbon emissions. What is less well understood is the potential magnitude of impact of the availability of fossil fuels, due to the interaction with biomass energy, on agriculture, land use, ecosystems and therefore carbon emissions from land-use change. This paper explores these links and implications. We show that if oil resources are limited, then the consequently higher price for liquids induces both the use of coal-to-liquids technology deployment, but also enhanced production of bioenergy crops particularly in a business-as-usual scenario. This in turn implies greater pressure to convert unmanaged ecosystems to produce bioenergy, and higher rates of terrestrial carbon emissions from land use. © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Calvin K.,Pacific Northwest National Laboratory | Edmonds J.,Pacific Northwest National Laboratory | Bakken B.,Sintef | Wise M.,Pacific Northwest National Laboratory | And 4 more authors.
Climate Policy | Year: 2014

The EU has established an aggressive portfolio with explicit near-term targets for 2020 – to reduce GHG emissions by 20%, rising to 30% if the conditions are right, to increase the share of renewable energy to 20%, and to make a 20% improvement in energy efficiency – intended to be the first step in a long-term strategy to limit climate forcing. The effectiveness and cost of extending these measures in time are considered along with the ambition and propagation to the rest of the world. Numerical results are reported and analysed for the contribution of the portfolio's various elements through a set of sensitivity experiments. It is found that the hypothetical programme leads to very substantial reductions in GHG emissions, dramatic increases in use of electricity, and substantial changes in land-use including reduced deforestation, but at the expense of higher food prices. The GHG emissions reductions are driven primarily by the direct limits. Although the carbon price is lower under the hypothetical protocol than it would be under the emissions cap alone, the economic cost of the portfolio is higher, between 13% and 22%. © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

Edmonds J.,Pacific Northwest National Laboratory | Luckow P.,Energy Economics Inc. | Calvin K.,Pacific Northwest National Laboratory | Wise M.,Pacific Northwest National Laboratory | And 5 more authors.
Climatic Change | Year: 2013

Combining bioenergy and carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technologies (BECCS) has the potential to remove CO2 from the atmosphere while producing useful energy. BECCS has played a central role in scenarios that reduce climate forcing to low levels such as 2. 6 Wm-2. In this paper we consider whether BECCS is essential to limiting radiative forcing (RF) to 2. 6 Wm-2 by 2100 using the Global Change Assessment Model, a closely coupled model of biogeophysical and human Earth systems. We show that BECCS can potentially reduce the cost of limiting RF to 2. 6 Wm-2 by 2100 but that a variety of technology combinations that do not include BECCS can also achieve this goal, under appropriate emissions mitigation policies. We note that with appropriate supporting land-use policies terrestrial sequestration could deliver carbon storage ranging from 200 to 700 PgCO2-equiavalent over the 21st century. We explore substantial delays in participation by some geopolitical regions. We find that the value of BECCS is substantially higher under delay and that delay results in higher transient RF and climate change. However, when major regions postponed mitigation indefinitely, it was impossible to return RF to 2. 6 Wm-2 by 2100. Neither finite land resources nor finite potential geologic storage capacity represented a meaningful technical limit on the ability of BECCS to contribute to emissions mitigation in the numerical experiments reported in this paper. © 2013 The Author(s).

Elovitz K.M.,Energy Economics Inc.
HPAC Heating, Piping, AirConditioning Engineering | Year: 2013

The first step in most HVAC design projects is to calculate heating and cooling loads. These calculations become the basis for sizing equipment and, when required, projecting energy use. While energy-use projections can be data- and calculation-intensive, even the most sophisticated procedures consist of little more than calculating the heating or cooling load at each outdoor temperature of interest, multiplying by the number of hours of each outdoor-temperature occurrence in a year, and summing. Engineers might not realize they can apply the process in reverse: use historical energy-use and weather data to infer building heating or cooling loads and understand how a building uses energy.

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