Energy and Environment unit

Rotterdam, Netherlands

Energy and Environment unit

Rotterdam, Netherlands
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Lise W.,AF Mercados EMI | Lise W.,ECORYS Research and Consulting | Lise W.,Energy and Environment unit | van der Laan J.,Trinomics | van der Laan J.,Energy and Environment unit
Energy for Sustainable Development | Year: 2015

Climate change is expected to have impacts on the power sector, leading to, among others, a need for adaptation measures in the sector in the near future. This paper analyses the need to adapt to climate change impacts for power generation technologies in Europe until 2100. Europe is broadly divided into four geographic climate zones, for which regional climate change impacts are quantified with the help of the ENSEMBLES RT2b data. The European future technology mix is based on two Eurelectric energy scenarios: 'Baseline 2009' and 'Power Choices'. A Risk Assessment Model is formulated which assesses the cost to power plants for adapting to climate change. The analysis shows that thermal generation units most urgently need adaptation measures against floods, whereas off-shore wind power plants would need to take adaptation investments against sea level rise. Furthermore, electricity grids need to adapt to the increased incidence of storms. Finally, hydro generation in the Mediterranean regions needs to adapt to lower levels of precipitation. © 2015 International Energy Initiative.


Lise W.,AF Mercados EMI | Lise W.,ECORYS Research and Consulting | van der Laan J.,Energy and Environment unit | Nieuwenhout F.,Energy Research Center of the Netherlands | Rademaekers K.,Energy and Environment unit
Energy Policy | Year: 2013

Power system balancing will become increasingly important to secure a reliable European energy supply, as the share of intermittent supply increases (e.g. variable generation from wind and solar PV). This paper shows, in a quantitative way, the limitations of relying exclusively on flexibility in generation as the future shares of intermittent supply increase. Literature and data on intermittent supply and existing scenarios are reviewed. Costs related to increasing shares of intermittent supply are assessed. Quantifiable indicators relevant for electricity systems with a high share of intermittent supply are developed, namely (a) flexible supply (generation units that can quickly change output); (b) balancing need (which measures the needed flexibility of the power system as the difference between peak and off-peak residual demand (net of intermittent supply)). There is an externality of increasing the share of intermittent supply by increasing the power system balancing costs. If the cost of integrating intermittent generation was to be limited to about 25 billion EUR per year, which is an addition of 24% per unit intermittent generation cost, the intermittent supply share cannot reach more than 40% in the European power market. The final choice of an acceptable cost increase will be a political choice. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

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