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Kitous A.,Enerdata Energy Services Company | Criqui P.,French National Center for Scientific Research | Bellevrat E.,Enerdata Energy Services Company | Chateau B.,Enerdata Energy Services Company
Energy Journal | Year: 2010

This paper presents a long-term assessment of the worldwide energy system in scenarios ranging from a baseline to a very low greenhouse gas stabilization, using the energy model POLES. Despite improved energy efficiency, the baseline scenario would lead to a doubling in energy consumption by 2050 increasing further thereafter. CO2 emissions would continue rising, driven by the coal consumed in the power production which roughly follows the GDP growth; the scarcity of oil resources would trigger the development of alternative vehicles. Conversely, a 400 ppm CO2 eq stabilization case would lead to drastic changes in supply (renewables - biomass), transformation (carbon capture and storage) and demand (low energy technologies). It transpires that the contribution to the reduction effort of low stabilization compared to a baseline scenario would be similar for final consumption (36% efficiency and 10% fuel mix) and for the power sector (25% renewables, 25% CCS, 4% nuclear). In addition this low emission scenario would alleviate the tensions on fossil energy markets. Copyright © 2010 by the IAEE.


Edenhofer O.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | Knopf B.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | Barker T.,University of Cambridge | Baumstark L.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | And 12 more authors.
Energy Journal | Year: 2010

This study gives a synthesis of a model comparison assessing the technological feasibility and economic consequences of achieving greenhouse gas concentration targets that are sufficiently low to keep the increase in global mean temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. All five global energy-environment-economy models show that achieving low greenhouse gas concentration targets is technically feasible and economically viable. The ranking of the importance of individual technology options is robust across models. For the lowest stabilization target (400 ppm CO2 eq), the use of bio-energy in combination with CCS plays a crucial role, and biomass potential dominates the cost of reaching this target. Without CCS or the considerable extension of renewables the 400 ppm CO2 eq target is not achievable. Across the models, estimated aggregate costs up to 2100 are below 0.8% global GDP for 550 ppm CO2 eq stabilization and below 2.5% for the 400 ppm CO2 eq pathway. Copyright © 2010 by the IAEE.

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