Diomede T.,Emilia Romagna Regional Agency for Environmental Protection |
Marsigli C.,Emilia Romagna Regional Agency for Environmental Protection |
Montani A.,Emilia Romagna Regional Agency for Environmental Protection |
Nerozzi F.,Emilia Romagna Regional Agency for Environmental Protection |
Paccagnella T.,Emilia Romagna Regional Agency for Environmental Protection
Monthly Weather Review | Year: 2014
The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of calibration for limited-area ensemble precipitation forecasts, to be used for driving discharge predictions up to 5 days in advance. A reforecast dataset, which spans 30 years, based on the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO-LEPS) was used for testing the calibration strategy. Three calibration techniques were applied: quantile-to-quantile mapping, linear regression, and analogs. The performance of these methodologies was evaluated in terms of statistical scores for the precipitation forecasts operationally provided by COSMO-LEPS in the years 2003-07 over Germany, Switzerland, and the Emilia-Romagna region (northern Italy). The calibration provided a beneficial impact for the ensemble forecast over Switzerland and Germany; whereas, it resulted as less effective for Emilia-Romagna. The analog-based method seemed to be preferred because of its capability of correct position errors and spread deficiencies. A suitable spatial domain for the analog search can help to handle model spatial errors as systematic errors. However, the performance of the analog-based method may degrade in cases where a limited training dataset is available. The quantile-to-quantile mapping and linear regression methods were less effective, mainly because the forecast-analysis relation was not so strong for the available training dataset. The verification of the calibration process was then performed by coupling ensemble precipitation forecasts with a distributed rainfall-runoff model. This test was carried out for a medium-sized catchment located in Emilia-Romagna, showing a beneficial impact of the analog-based method on the reduction of missed events for discharge predictions. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.