Ecofys GmbH

Koln, Germany

Ecofys GmbH

Koln, Germany

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Schueler V.,Research Consultant | Weddige U.,Ecofys GmbH | Beringer T.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | Gamba L.,Ecofys GmbH | And 2 more authors.
GCB Bioenergy | Year: 2013

The political will to reduce global GHG emissions has largely contributed to increased global biofuel production and trade. The expanding cultivation of energy crops may drive changes in the terrestrial ecosystems such as land cover and biodiversity loss. When biomass replaces fossil energy carriers, sustainability criteria are therefore crucial to avoid adverse impacts and ensure a net positive GHG balance. The European Union has set mandatory sustainability criteria for liquid biofuels in its Renewable Energy Directive (RED) 2009/28/EC to ensure net positive impacts of its biofuel policy. The adoption of sustainability criteria in other world regions and their extension to solid and gaseous biomass in the EU is ongoing. This paper examines the effect of the EU RED sustainability criteria on the availability of biomass resources at global and regional scale. It quantifies the relevance of sustainability criteria in biomass resource assessments taking into account the criteria's spatial distribution. This assessment does not include agricultural and forestry residues and aquatic biomass. Previously unknown interrelations between sustainability criteria are examined and described for ten world regions. The analysis concludes that roughly 10% (98.5 EJ) of the total theoretical potential of 977.2 EJ occurs in areas free of sustainability concerns. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.


Schimschar S.,Ecofys GmbH | Blok K.,Ecofys bv | Boermans T.,Ecofys GmbH | Hermelink A.,Ecofys GmbH
Energy Policy | Year: 2011

On 19 May 2010, the European Union adopted a Directive stipulating that by the end of 2020, Member States must ensure that all newly constructed buildings consume 'nearly zero' energy. In Germany, drastic reductions of energy demand for space heating have already become a policy target over the last decade, both for new and existing dwellings. In this article, we evaluate the impact of past and future policies on the development of buildings with a very high energy performance (VHEP) and on their primary energy demand and emissions. These dwellings account for 4% of all dwellings which have been constructed since 2001 and 1% of the total building stock. We have defined different policy scenarios, all of which assume a gradual increase of requirements for new and existing buildings and a continuation of the support policies that stimulate both new constructions and ambitious refurbishments. In the most ambitious scenario, the proportion of VHEP dwellings will increase by up to 30% of the total stock in 2020 and the share of nearly zero and zero-energy dwellings will then make up 6%. This will lead to emission reductions of over 50% of the 1990 level and primary energy reductions of 25% compared with today. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.


Klockl B.,Verbund AG | Papaefthymiou G.,Ecofys GmbH
Electric Power Systems Research | Year: 2010

This paper presents an applied statistics method for the synthesis of multivariate time series of stochastic generation for planning purposes in power systems. It is shown that a suited model should represent satisfactorily the individual univariate stochastic processes and also reproduce the stochastic dependence structure between them. In order to fulfill all requirements, the method proposes the transformation of a set of recorded time series to the multivariate normal domain, the identification of a vector autoregressive model, the synthetization of a multivariate time series with desired length, and subsequently the back-transformation into the initial domain. The method can capture density functions, chronological persistence, diurnal periodicities and dependence structures of and between an arbitrary number of distributed system infeeds. Application can be found in the expansion of short data records into statistically significant synthetic time series for power system studies with distributed and uncertain resources. A simple practical example is given for illustration. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


Ekholm T.,VTT Technical Research Center of Finland | Ekholm T.,Aalto University | Soimakallio S.,VTT Technical Research Center of Finland | Moltmann S.,Ecofys GmbH | And 3 more authors.
Energy Policy | Year: 2010

The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050, either - 10 % or - 50 % from 1990 levels, and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry, while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches, Triptych and Multistage, were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries, with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is, however, no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches, as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last, challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions, the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


Lojowska A.,Technical University of Delft | Kurowicka D.,Technical University of Delft | Papaefthymiou G.,Technical University of Delft | Papaefthymiou G.,Ecofys GmbH | Van Der Sluis L.,Technical University of Delft
IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting | Year: 2011

This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation approach for the modeling of the power demand of electric vehicles under the scenario of uncontrolled domestic charging. A detailed transportation dataset for the Netherlands is used to derive the stochastic characteristics of the behavior of vehicles. The stochastic variables are the start/end-time of each trip and the respective travelled distance while the battery state of charge at the beginning of charging is derived by the consideration of the distance traveled since the last charging and the charging history. The stochastic variables are modeled using normal copula function based on the respective correlations and marginal distributions. The total load due to electric vehicles is computed based on the combination of the simulated commuting pattern with the charging profile of a typical electric vehicle battery. The results show that the EV power demand reaches the highest value during the evening peak hours for the residential load, however the peak is significantly lower than maximum which is mainly caused by the low charging time due to a generally low mean traveled distance. © 2011 IEEE.


Papaefthymiou G.,Ecofys GmbH | Hasche B.,Ecofys GmbH | Nabe C.,Ecofys GmbH
IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy | Year: 2012

Increasing power system flexibility by responsive demand is a central issue for the incorporation of higher levels of variable wind generation in future power systems. The electrification of the heat sector, except from energy efficiency gains, may offer a vast potential of new forms of flexible demand, by time-shifting of heat production in buildings. The assessment of this potential can, however, be performed only when the limitations imposed by the primary operation of the equipment (space heating) are realistically taken into account. In this paper, a methodology is presented for the quantification of the flexibility offered by the thermal storage of building stock equipped with heat pumps, to power systems with significant penetration of wind power. A model is proposed for the incorporation of the building stock thermal behavior as equivalent energy storage in electricity market models. At the same time, the model allows the coupling to a detailed dynamic thermal model of buildings for the assessment of the respective operational restrictions. The case study presents the results of a project for the evaluation of the flexibility offered by portfolios of high heat pump deployment in conjunction with high wind penetration scenarios for the future German electricity system. © 2010-2012 IEEE.


Idema R.,Technical University of Delft | Papaefthymiou G.,Ecofys GmbH | Papaefthymiou G.,Technical University of Delft | Lahaye D.,Technical University of Delft | And 2 more authors.
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems | Year: 2013

Current and future developments in the power system industry demand fast power flow solvers for larger power flow problems. The established methods are no longer viable for such problems, as they are not scalable in the problem size. In this paper, the use of Newton-Krylov power flow methods is proposed, and a multitude of preconditioning techniques for such methods are discussed and compared. It is shown that incomplete factorizations can perform very well as preconditioner, resulting in a solver that scales in the problem size. It is further shown that using a preconditioned inner-outer Krylov method has no significant advantage over applying the preconditioner directly to the outer iterations. Finally, algebraic multigrid is demonstrated as a preconditioner for Newton-Krylov power flow and argued to be the method of choice in some scenarios. © 2013 IEEE.


Monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) requirements in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) are perceived to be of high quality, but also complex and stringent. Only one-third of the registered projects successfully managed initial verification and already received carbon credits. The time required to achieve first issuance remains high despite considerable improvements in other CDM project cycle steps. This leads to the question of whether MRV provisions in the CDM represent barriers that could be lowered while ensuring the CDM's integrity. The CDM requirements are compared with the MRV provisions of the EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS). The comparison shows that CDM-MRV provisions are often stricter and less flexible compared to similar provisions in the EU ETS. Due to structural differences between the EU ETS and the CDM, some different MRV approaches are justified and reflect the CDM's disparate objectives and complexity. It is found that some CDM provisions result in barriers which seem avoidable and do not contribute to the CDM's environmental integrity. Recommendations are made for CDM-specific improvements and general structural changes to improve cost-efficiency and reduce uncertainty with relevance to policy developments around future market mechanisms. © 2014 © 2014 Taylor & Francis.


Grant
Agency: European Commission | Branch: H2020 | Program: CSA | Phase: LCE-04-2014 | Award Amount: 1.55M | Year: 2015

Auctions, as a competitive and market-based mechanism, are on the verge of becoming a prevailing feature in support policies for renewable energy in Europe. A comprehensive assessment of auctions and their suitability for renewable support in Europe is urgently needed to facilitate their successful design and cost-efficient implementation. Auctions have the potential to significantly improve the performance of renewable electricity support in Europe, but there are potential pitfalls and difficulties to be avoided. AURES combines dedicated, detailed and target-oriented analysis of auctions and their interactions with other energy policy mechanisms and markets with capacity building of policy makers and market participants. The project will identify and evaluate suitable auction design options and their effects under different market conditions using tailored theoretical, empirical, experimental, and model-based approaches, and so develop best practices and policy recommendations for future auction design. Building on worldwide experiences with auctions in energy policy and other industries and on close cooperation with ongoing auction implementation cases in Europe, a strong knowledge base will be developed, enabling policy makers and market participants to make informed decisions. This knowledge base will be processed in a flexible policy support tool that provides policy makers with tailor-made information suited to their specific situation and policy preferences. By facilitating an intense and continuous stakeholder dialogue and by establishing a knowledge sharing network via workshops, webinars, bilateral meetings, and expert consultations, the project will serve as capacity building platform. The project consortium consists of eight renowned public institutions and private firms representing seven European countries and includes some of the leading energy policy experts in Europe, with an impressive track record of successful research and coordination projects.


In the federal state Schleswig-Holstein (SH) the installed capacity of distributed generation has been growing faster than the transport capacity of power networks. Currently, this causes network congestions and requires corrective measures as curtailment. In 2012, around 3.5% of renewable generation in SH was curtailed. As one possible option for reducing these yield losses energy storage has been suggested. In a project for the state government of SH Ecofys and Fraunhofer IWES investigated potential benefits of storage technologies in electricity networks in this region. The analysis was carried out separately for the transmission and distribution levels. Based on hourly simulations of future renewable generation and load time series of a 2025 scenario, congestion effects on the transmission grid level were evaluated by using residual load analysis. By matching situations of negative residual load against current and future transfer capacities in SH it becomes obvious, that an appreciable amount of surplus situations for a potential utilization of energy storage only occurs with current transfer capacities. It diminishes with the planned expansion of transmission grid. On distribution grid level, Ecofys assessed the characteristics of curtailment applied during recent years with detailed empirical data. The analysis of congestion management actions showed that the storage's cycling intensity related to curtailment will be low whereas power intensity is potentially high. The economic benefits of reducing RES-E losses do not offset the costs of storage. Hence, application of storage for reducing curtailment losses is viably only if part of the investment costs are socialised in one way or another. Finally, the paper identifies a number of arguments supporting the development of storage technologies and describes key framework conditions which could be changed to support storage projects. © 2015 The Authors.

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