Klockl B.,Verbund AG |
Papaefthymiou G.,Ecofys GmbH
Electric Power Systems Research | Year: 2010
This paper presents an applied statistics method for the synthesis of multivariate time series of stochastic generation for planning purposes in power systems. It is shown that a suited model should represent satisfactorily the individual univariate stochastic processes and also reproduce the stochastic dependence structure between them. In order to fulfill all requirements, the method proposes the transformation of a set of recorded time series to the multivariate normal domain, the identification of a vector autoregressive model, the synthetization of a multivariate time series with desired length, and subsequently the back-transformation into the initial domain. The method can capture density functions, chronological persistence, diurnal periodicities and dependence structures of and between an arbitrary number of distributed system infeeds. Application can be found in the expansion of short data records into statistically significant synthetic time series for power system studies with distributed and uncertain resources. A simple practical example is given for illustration. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Source
Warnecke C.,Ecofys GmbH
Climate Policy | Year: 2014
Monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) requirements in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) are perceived to be of high quality, but also complex and stringent. Only one-third of the registered projects successfully managed initial verification and already received carbon credits. The time required to achieve first issuance remains high despite considerable improvements in other CDM project cycle steps. This leads to the question of whether MRV provisions in the CDM represent barriers that could be lowered while ensuring the CDM's integrity. The CDM requirements are compared with the MRV provisions of the EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS). The comparison shows that CDM-MRV provisions are often stricter and less flexible compared to similar provisions in the EU ETS. Due to structural differences between the EU ETS and the CDM, some different MRV approaches are justified and reflect the CDM's disparate objectives and complexity. It is found that some CDM provisions result in barriers which seem avoidable and do not contribute to the CDM's environmental integrity. Recommendations are made for CDM-specific improvements and general structural changes to improve cost-efficiency and reduce uncertainty with relevance to policy developments around future market mechanisms. © 2014 © 2014 Taylor & Francis. Source
Doering M.,Ecofys GmbH
Energy Procedia | Year: 2015
In the federal state Schleswig-Holstein (SH) the installed capacity of distributed generation has been growing faster than the transport capacity of power networks. Currently, this causes network congestions and requires corrective measures as curtailment. In 2012, around 3.5% of renewable generation in SH was curtailed. As one possible option for reducing these yield losses energy storage has been suggested. In a project for the state government of SH Ecofys and Fraunhofer IWES investigated potential benefits of storage technologies in electricity networks in this region. The analysis was carried out separately for the transmission and distribution levels. Based on hourly simulations of future renewable generation and load time series of a 2025 scenario, congestion effects on the transmission grid level were evaluated by using residual load analysis. By matching situations of negative residual load against current and future transfer capacities in SH it becomes obvious, that an appreciable amount of surplus situations for a potential utilization of energy storage only occurs with current transfer capacities. It diminishes with the planned expansion of transmission grid. On distribution grid level, Ecofys assessed the characteristics of curtailment applied during recent years with detailed empirical data. The analysis of congestion management actions showed that the storage's cycling intensity related to curtailment will be low whereas power intensity is potentially high. The economic benefits of reducing RES-E losses do not offset the costs of storage. Hence, application of storage for reducing curtailment losses is viably only if part of the investment costs are socialised in one way or another. Finally, the paper identifies a number of arguments supporting the development of storage technologies and describes key framework conditions which could be changed to support storage projects. © 2015 The Authors. Source
Agency: Cordis | Branch: H2020 | Program: CSA | Phase: LCE-04-2014 | Award Amount: 1.55M | Year: 2015
Auctions, as a competitive and market-based mechanism, are on the verge of becoming a prevailing feature in support policies for renewable energy in Europe. A comprehensive assessment of auctions and their suitability for renewable support in Europe is urgently needed to facilitate their successful design and cost-efficient implementation. Auctions have the potential to significantly improve the performance of renewable electricity support in Europe, but there are potential pitfalls and difficulties to be avoided. AURES combines dedicated, detailed and target-oriented analysis of auctions and their interactions with other energy policy mechanisms and markets with capacity building of policy makers and market participants. The project will identify and evaluate suitable auction design options and their effects under different market conditions using tailored theoretical, empirical, experimental, and model-based approaches, and so develop best practices and policy recommendations for future auction design. Building on worldwide experiences with auctions in energy policy and other industries and on close cooperation with ongoing auction implementation cases in Europe, a strong knowledge base will be developed, enabling policy makers and market participants to make informed decisions. This knowledge base will be processed in a flexible policy support tool that provides policy makers with tailor-made information suited to their specific situation and policy preferences. By facilitating an intense and continuous stakeholder dialogue and by establishing a knowledge sharing network via workshops, webinars, bilateral meetings, and expert consultations, the project will serve as capacity building platform. The project consortium consists of eight renowned public institutions and private firms representing seven European countries and includes some of the leading energy policy experts in Europe, with an impressive track record of successful research and coordination projects.
Greenhouse gas emitted by 2,440 potential coal plants -- on top of those already in operation -- would breach the UN target of restricting the planet's temperature rise, according to a mid-range estimate by Climate Action Tracker (AFP Photo/Patrik Stollarz) More Le Bourget (France) (AFP) - While scientists agree humanity needs to phase out coal within 35 years, thousands of new plants are being planned that would doom hopes of keeping global warming to safer levels, analysts said Tuesday. Greenhouse gas emitted by these 2,440 potential plants -- on top of those already in operation -- would breach the UN target of restricting the planet's temperature rise, according to a mid-range estimate by Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a respected research group. Members of the UN are striving for a pact to keep warming under two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than pre-industrial levels. Even if no new plants are built, emissions from coal-fired power generation in 2030 would be about 150 percent higher than they should be for staying under the 2C ceiling, said the CAT report, issued on the sidelines of the climate talks in Le Bourget. "There is a solution to this issue of too many coal plants on the books: cancel them," said Pieter van Breevoort of Ecofys, an energy research organisation which is part of the CAT project. "Renewable energy and stricter pollution standards are making coal plants obsolete around the world, and the earlier a coal plant is taken out of the planning process, the less it will cost." Cutting emissions is a core aim of 195 nations spending the next 10 days in Paris negotiating what is touted as a landmark post-2020 deal to roll back global warming. Despite the need to phase out greenhouse gas pollution from the energy sector, many nations -- including the United States and European Union countries -- are planning to build new coal-burning plants. New capacity is also a key plank in the energy strategies of emerging giants like China and India, seeking a cheap and plentiful fuel for their growing economies and populations. The planned new plants -- along with existing ones which will still be running in 2030 -- would send global emissions some 400 percent over the trajectory 2 C, according to the CAT report, compiled by four climate change research bodies. The estimate is based on a middle-of-the-range scenario for emissions. It said there are ways to increase coal use safely, but these would require large sums of money spent in the second half of the century on technology, including capturing and storing carbon emissions. With carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, emissions from power plants and other sources like steel mills are trapped and stored underground, out of harm's way. Doing so would add significantly to the cost of cutting emissions, raising questions of its viability. "Renewables are so cheap that it does not make sense to deploy CCS... It's simply too expensive," Bill Hare, chief executive of the Climate Analytics thinktank, told reporters in Paris. "From the CO2 emissions reduction perspective, we are far better off going to renewables and efficiency."