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den Elzen M.G.J.,PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency | Olivier J.G.J.,PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency | Hohne N.,Ecofys Germany | Hohne N.,Wageningen University | Janssens-Maenhout G.,European Commission - Joint Research Center Ispra
Climatic Change | Year: 2013

In the context of recent discussions at the UN climate negotiations we compared several ways of calculating historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and assessed the effect of these different approaches on countries' relative contributions to cumulative global emissions. Elements not covered before are: (i) including recent historical emissions (2000-2010), (ii) discounting historical emissions to account for technological progress; (iii) deducting emissions for 'basic needs'; (iv) including projected emissions up to 2020, based on countries' unconditional reduction proposals for 2020. Our analysis shows that countries' contributions vary significantly based on the choices made in the calculation: e.g. the relative contribution of developed countries as a group can be as high as 80 % when excluding recent emissions, non-CO2 GHGs, and land-use change and forestry CO2; or about 48 % when including all these emissions and discounting historical emissions for technological progress. Excluding non-CO2 GHGs and land-use change and forestry CO2 significantly changes relative historical contributions for many countries, altering countries' relative contributions by multiplicative factors ranging from 0.15 to 1.5 compared to reference values (i.e. reference contribution calculations cover the period 1850-2010 and all GHG emissions). Excluding 2000-2010 emissions decreases the contributions of most emerging economies (factor of up to 0.8). Discounting historical emissions for technological progress reduces the relative contributions of some developed countries (factor of 0.8) and increases those of some developing countries (factor of 1.2-1.5). Deducting emissions for 'basic needs' results in smaller contributions for countries with low per capita emissions (factor of 0.3-0.5). Finally, including projected emissions up to 2020 further increases the relative contributions of emerging economies by a factor of 1.2, or 1.5 when discounting pre-2020 emissions for technological progress. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Dubash N.K.,Center for Policy Research | Hagemann M.,Ecofys Germany | Hagemann M.,University Utrecht | Hohne N.,Ecofys Germany | And 2 more authors.
Climate Policy | Year: 2013

The results are presented from a survey of national legislation and strategies to mitigate climate change covering almost all United Nations member states between 2007 and 2012. This data set is distinguished from the existing literature in its breadth of coverage, its focus on national policies (rather than international pledges), and on the use of objective metrics rather than normative criteria. The focus of the data is limited to national climate legislation and strategies and does not cover subnational or sectoral measures. Climate legislation and strategies are important because they can: enhance incentives for climate mitigation; provide mechanisms for mainstreaming; and provide a focal point for actors. Three broad findings emerge. First, there has been a substantial increase in climate legislation and strategies between 2007 and 2012: 67% of global GHG emissions are now under national climate legislation or strategy compared to 45% in 2007. Second, there are substantial regional effects to the patterns, with most increases in non-Annex I countries, particularly in Asia and Latin America. Third, many more countries have adopted climate strategies than have adopted climate legislation between 2007 and 2012. The article concludes with recommendations for future research.Policy relevance The increase in climate legislation and strategy is significant. This spread suggests that, at the national level, there is some movement in reshaping climate governance despite the relatively slow pace of global negotiations, although the exact implications of this spread require further research on stringency of actions and their implementation. Asia and Latin America represent the biggest improvements, while OECD countries, which start from a high base, remain relatively stagnant. Implications of regional patterns are further refined by an analysis by emissions, which shows that some areas of low levels of legislation and strategy are also areas of relatively low emissions. A broad trend toward an emphasis on strategies rather than legislation, with the significant exception of China, calls for enhanced research into the practical impact of national non-binding climate strategies versus binding legislation on countries' actual emissions over time. © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

Graus W.,University Utrecht | Roglieri M.,Thetis SpA | Jaworski P.,Ecofys Germany | Alberio L.,Ecofys bv | Worrell E.,University Utrecht
Climate Policy | Year: 2011

To what degree are recently built and planned power plants in the EU 'capture-ready' for carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Survey results show that most recently built fossil fuel power plants have not been designed as capture-ready. For 20 planned coal-fired plants, 13 were said to be capture-ready (65%). For 31 planned gas-fired power plants, only 2 were indicated to be capture-ready (6%). Recently built or planned power plants are expected to cover a large share of fossil fuel capacity by 2030 and thereby have a large impact on the possibility to implement CCS after 2020. It is estimated that around 15-30% of fossil fuel capacity by 2030 can be capture-ready or have CO2 capture implemented from the start. If CCS is implemented at these plants, 14-28% of baseline CO2 emissions from fossil fuel power generation in 2030 could be mitigated, equivalent to 220-410 MtCO2. A key reason indicated by utilities for building a capture-ready plant is (expected) national or EU policies. In addition, financial incentives and expected high CO2 prices are important. The implementation of a long-term regulatory framework for CCS with clear definitions of 'capturereadiness' and policy requirements will be important challenges. © 2011 Earthscan.

Lamers P.,Ecofys Germany | Hamelinck C.,Ecofys bv | Junginger M.,University Utrecht | Faaij A.,University Utrecht
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews | Year: 2011

Policies aimed to promote biofuels locally had tremendous effects on global market developments across the past decade. This article develops insights into the interaction of these policies and market forces via a comprehensive collection and analysis of international production and trade data. It shows that world biofuel production and trade has grown exponentially: from below 30 PJ in 2000 to 572 PJ in 2009 for biodiesel; from 340 PJ in 2000 to over 1540 PJ in 2009 for fuel ethanol. The EU has dominated world biodiesel, whereas the US and Brazil have led fuel ethanol production. World net biofuel trade reached 120-130 PJ in 2009 and was directed towards the most lucrative markets. For biodiesel, this has been the EU whose imports rose to 92 PJ in 2008 and remained at 70 PJ in 2009. Regarding fuel ethanol, both the US and the EU have been prime destinations for competitively priced exports, the vast majority of which originated in Brazil. International biofuel trade is both supply and demand driven. The demand side was shaped by support policies which generally increased the domestic market value of biofuels. Trade developed wherever these policies/prices were not accompanied by respective measures. It is found that import duties largely influenced trade volumes, whereas trade routes were mainly driven by tariff preferences. Trade regimes appear to have been designed and adapted unilaterally along national interests causing market disruptions, trade inefficiencies and disputes. To avoid these, it is important to explicitly consider international trade implications of national trade policies. A prerequisite is to improve the understanding of the underlying, complex and interwoven links within the market. The current lack of adequate, homogeneous, international reporting of biofuel production and trade statistics could be bridged via internationally standardized custom clarifications. Trade factor interrelations also need to be investigated further. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Klessmann C.,Ecofys Germany | Held A.,Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research | Rathmann M.,Ecofys bv | Ragwitz M.,Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research
Energy Policy | Year: 2011

This article evaluates the status of current RES deployment, policies and barriers in the EU-27 member states and compares it to the required to meet the 2020 targets. The evaluation relies strongly on the quantitative deployment status and policy effectiveness indicators. European RES deployment and policy has progressed strongly in recent years, but the growth here has been mainly driven by effective policies in a small or medium number of top runner countries. Across Europe, the highest average policy effectiveness over six years was reached for onshore wind (4.2%), biofuels (3.6%) and biomass electricity (2.7%), while in the heat sector, all technologies score below 2%. Comparing the recent progress to the required growth for meeting the 2020 target, it appears that some countries largely exceed the interim targets of the RES Directive 2009/28/EC. Despite this, Europe will need additional policy effort to reach the 2020 target. Critical success factors include implementing effective and efficient policies that attract sufficient investments, reducing administrative and grid related barriers, especially in currently less advanced countries, upgrading the power grid infrastructure, dismantling financial barriers in the heat sector, realising sustainability standards for biomass, and lowering energy demand through increased energy efficiency efforts. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Lamers P.,Ecofys Germany | Lamers P.,University Utrecht | Junginger M.,University Utrecht | Hamelinck C.,Ecofys bv | Faaij A.,University Utrecht
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews | Year: 2012

This paper presents and analyses international solid biofuel trade and concludes upon interactions with bioenergy policies and market factors. It shows that trade has grown from about 56 to 300 PJ between 2000 and 2010. Wood pellets grew strongest, i.e. from 8.5 to 120 PJ. Other relevant streams by 2010 included wood waste (77 PJ), fuelwood (76 PJ), wood chips (17 PJ), residues (9 PJ), and roundwood (2.4 PJ). Intra-EU trade covered two thirds of global trade by 2010. Underlying markets are highly heterogeneous; generally though trade evolved whenever supply side market factors coincided with existing/emerging demand patterns. Market factors and policies both defined trade volumes; though policy changes did not have as prominent effects on trade developments as in the liquid biofuel sector. Economic viability is the key limiting factor. Main exporting countries have low feedstock costs and already existing wood processing industries. Trade-relevant aspects are the commodity's monetary value; determined by its homogeneity, heating value, and bulk density. Consumer markets are diverse: in residential heating, demand/trade patterns have been influenced by local biofuel availability and short-term price signals, i.e. mainly price competitiveness and investment support for boilers/stoves. Commodities are mainly sourced regionally, but price differences have triggered a growing trade. The industrial segment is greatly influenced by policy frameworks but more mature (e.g. established routes). Trade is strictly linked to margins (defined mainly by policies) and combustion technologies. Uncertainties in the analysis are due to data gaps across and within databases regarding import/export declarations. To estimate bioenergy related trade, anecdotal data was indispensable. We believe datasets should be streamlined across international institutions to eventually enable reporting of global trade beyond digit-6-level. Research is needed to provide further insights into informal markets. Interrelations between trade factors are particularly relevant when mapping future trade streams under different policy/trade regime scenarios. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Klessmann C.,Ecofys Germany | Rathmann M.,Ecofys bv | de Jager D.,Ecofys bv | Gazzo A.,Ernst And Young | And 3 more authors.
Renewable Energy | Year: 2013

European governments have agreed to increase the share of renewable energy in final energy consumption to 20% by 2020. A crucial question for policy makers is how to mobilise the additional capital investments in RE and which consumer expenditures are involved. The article describes policy options for reducing renewable energy technology (RET) project costs as well as consumer costs, based on research conducted in de Jager et al., 2011 and Rathmann et al., 2011. The results show that risk-sensitive RET policies are crucial for attracting sufficient RET investments until 2020 and achieving the targets cost-effectively. They not only reduce the RET financing costs, but also the project development costs and market gap. There are also other options that can significantly reduce the RET support costs, i.e. the adjustment of support levels to generation costs, phasing out subsidies for conventional energies, and the cost-optimisation of the supported RET portfolio, either through increased cooperation between member states or through changes in the supported technology mix. Overall, further improvement and coordination of existing policy frameworks seems more promising than drastic system changes, as the latter would create additional uncertainties and potentially negative effects on RET growth and project costs. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Klessmann C.,Ecofys Germany | Lamers P.,Ecofys Germany | Ragwitz M.,Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research | Resch G.,Vienna University of Technology
Energy Policy | Year: 2010

In June 2009, a new EU directive on the promotion of renewable energy sources (RES) entered into effect. The directive 2009/28/EC, provides for three cooperation mechanisms that will allow member states to achieve their national RES target in cooperation with other member states: statistical transfer, joint projects, and joint support schemes. This article analyses the pros and cons of the three mechanisms and explores design options for their implementation through strategic and economic questions: How to counterbalance the major drawbacks of each mechanism? How to reflect a balance of costs and benefits between the involved member states? The analysis identifies a number of design options that respond to these questions, e.g. long term contracts to ensure sufficient flexibility for statistical transfers, a coordinated, standardised joint project approach to increase transparency in the European market, and a stepwise harmonisation of joint support schemes that is based on a cost-effective accounting approach. One conclusion is that the three cooperation mechanisms are closely interlinked. One can consider their relation to be a gradual transition from member state cooperation under fully closed national support systems in case of statistical transfers, to cooperation under fully open national support systems in a joint support scheme. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Gul S.,Ecofys Germany | Spielmann M.,QUANTIS Germany | Lehmann A.,TU Berlin | Eggers D.,thinkstep | And 2 more authors.
International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment | Year: 2015

Purpose: In the process of developing Product Environmental Footprint Category Rules (PEFCR)—currently tested in various pilots in the Single Market for Green Products initiative of the European Commission—the definition of product category benchmarks and environmental performance classes is a crucial element of each PEFCR. Whilst life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology developed over the last 20 years can be used for many other topics to be tackled in the pilots, there is a clear lack of methodology for the determination of benchmarks and environmental performance classes. In this article, hence, we address this gap and develop a procedure for benchmarking and environmental performance classes in LCA. Methods: To do this, given requirements and definitions of the PEF guidelines on both subjects are taken as a basis and are refined by using common LCA techniques like hot spot and sensitivity analyses. The specific steps of the procedure are applied systematically in a case study using sports shoes as an example. Results and discussion: The resulting procedure involves the definition of a scenario vector, which is composed of relevant life cycle phases as well as the lifetime of the product (i.e. sports shoes) as variables. On the basis of the hot spot and sensitivity analyses, these variables are quantified, first, to generate the benchmark and, second, to determine the environmental performance classes around the benchmark for each considered impact category individually. In addition, the influence of data uncertainty on the class distribution is assessed with the help of the Monte Carlo simulation. Conclusions: The results of the application in the case study demonstrate the high impact of the product’s lifetime on the final environmental performance classes, and the importance of data quality. Limitations are identified regarding data availability and the harmonisation of the classes to potentially create a PEF label. A debate is induced on the validity of such a label when considering the fact that the characterisation methods and factors proposed in the PEF guidelines may not be complete or accurate enough. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

den Elzen M.,Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency | Hohne N.,Ecofys Germany
Climate Policy | Year: 2010

In order to stabilize long-term greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm CO2-eq or lower, developed countries as a group should reduce emissions by 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020, while developing countries' emissions need to be reduced by around 15-30%, relative to their baseline levels, according to the IPCC and our earlier work. This study examines 19 other studies on the emission reductions attributed to the developed and developing countries for meeting a 450 ppm target. These studies considered different allocation approaches, according to equity principles. The effect of the assumed global emissions cap in these studies is analysed. For developed countries, the original reduction range of 25-40% by 2020 is still within the average range of all studies, but does not cover it completely. Comparing the studies shows that assuming a global emissions cap of 5-15% above 1990 levels by 2020 generally leads to more stringent reduction targets than when a global emissions cap of 20-30% above 1990 levels is assumed. For developing countries, the reduction range of 15-30% below their baseline levels by 2020 corresponds to an increase on the 1990 level from 70% (about the 2006 level) to 120%. Reducing deforestation emissions by 50% below baseline levels by 2020 may relax the emission reductions for either group of countries; for developing countries by about 7% or for developed countries by about 15% (but not for both). © 2010 Earthscan.

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