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Lamers P.,Ecofys Germany | Hamelinck C.,Ecofys bv | Junginger M.,University Utrecht | Faaij A.,University Utrecht
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews | Year: 2011

Policies aimed to promote biofuels locally had tremendous effects on global market developments across the past decade. This article develops insights into the interaction of these policies and market forces via a comprehensive collection and analysis of international production and trade data. It shows that world biofuel production and trade has grown exponentially: from below 30 PJ in 2000 to 572 PJ in 2009 for biodiesel; from 340 PJ in 2000 to over 1540 PJ in 2009 for fuel ethanol. The EU has dominated world biodiesel, whereas the US and Brazil have led fuel ethanol production. World net biofuel trade reached 120-130 PJ in 2009 and was directed towards the most lucrative markets. For biodiesel, this has been the EU whose imports rose to 92 PJ in 2008 and remained at 70 PJ in 2009. Regarding fuel ethanol, both the US and the EU have been prime destinations for competitively priced exports, the vast majority of which originated in Brazil. International biofuel trade is both supply and demand driven. The demand side was shaped by support policies which generally increased the domestic market value of biofuels. Trade developed wherever these policies/prices were not accompanied by respective measures. It is found that import duties largely influenced trade volumes, whereas trade routes were mainly driven by tariff preferences. Trade regimes appear to have been designed and adapted unilaterally along national interests causing market disruptions, trade inefficiencies and disputes. To avoid these, it is important to explicitly consider international trade implications of national trade policies. A prerequisite is to improve the understanding of the underlying, complex and interwoven links within the market. The current lack of adequate, homogeneous, international reporting of biofuel production and trade statistics could be bridged via internationally standardized custom clarifications. Trade factor interrelations also need to be investigated further. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Source

Graus W.,University Utrecht | Roglieri M.,Thetis SpA | Jaworski P.,Ecofys Germany | Alberio L.,Ecofys bv | Worrell E.,University Utrecht
Climate Policy | Year: 2011

To what degree are recently built and planned power plants in the EU 'capture-ready' for carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Survey results show that most recently built fossil fuel power plants have not been designed as capture-ready. For 20 planned coal-fired plants, 13 were said to be capture-ready (65%). For 31 planned gas-fired power plants, only 2 were indicated to be capture-ready (6%). Recently built or planned power plants are expected to cover a large share of fossil fuel capacity by 2030 and thereby have a large impact on the possibility to implement CCS after 2020. It is estimated that around 15-30% of fossil fuel capacity by 2030 can be capture-ready or have CO2 capture implemented from the start. If CCS is implemented at these plants, 14-28% of baseline CO2 emissions from fossil fuel power generation in 2030 could be mitigated, equivalent to 220-410 MtCO2. A key reason indicated by utilities for building a capture-ready plant is (expected) national or EU policies. In addition, financial incentives and expected high CO2 prices are important. The implementation of a long-term regulatory framework for CCS with clear definitions of 'capturereadiness' and policy requirements will be important challenges. © 2011 Earthscan. Source

den Elzen M.G.J.,PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency | Olivier J.G.J.,PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency | Hohne N.,Ecofys Germany | Hohne N.,Wageningen University | Janssens-Maenhout G.,European Commission - Joint Research Center Ispra
Climatic Change | Year: 2013

In the context of recent discussions at the UN climate negotiations we compared several ways of calculating historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and assessed the effect of these different approaches on countries' relative contributions to cumulative global emissions. Elements not covered before are: (i) including recent historical emissions (2000-2010), (ii) discounting historical emissions to account for technological progress; (iii) deducting emissions for 'basic needs'; (iv) including projected emissions up to 2020, based on countries' unconditional reduction proposals for 2020. Our analysis shows that countries' contributions vary significantly based on the choices made in the calculation: e.g. the relative contribution of developed countries as a group can be as high as 80 % when excluding recent emissions, non-CO2 GHGs, and land-use change and forestry CO2; or about 48 % when including all these emissions and discounting historical emissions for technological progress. Excluding non-CO2 GHGs and land-use change and forestry CO2 significantly changes relative historical contributions for many countries, altering countries' relative contributions by multiplicative factors ranging from 0.15 to 1.5 compared to reference values (i.e. reference contribution calculations cover the period 1850-2010 and all GHG emissions). Excluding 2000-2010 emissions decreases the contributions of most emerging economies (factor of up to 0.8). Discounting historical emissions for technological progress reduces the relative contributions of some developed countries (factor of 0.8) and increases those of some developing countries (factor of 1.2-1.5). Deducting emissions for 'basic needs' results in smaller contributions for countries with low per capita emissions (factor of 0.3-0.5). Finally, including projected emissions up to 2020 further increases the relative contributions of emerging economies by a factor of 1.2, or 1.5 when discounting pre-2020 emissions for technological progress. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Source

Klessmann C.,Ecofys Germany | Held A.,Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research | Rathmann M.,Ecofys bv | Ragwitz M.,Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research
Energy Policy | Year: 2011

This article evaluates the status of current RES deployment, policies and barriers in the EU-27 member states and compares it to the required to meet the 2020 targets. The evaluation relies strongly on the quantitative deployment status and policy effectiveness indicators. European RES deployment and policy has progressed strongly in recent years, but the growth here has been mainly driven by effective policies in a small or medium number of top runner countries. Across Europe, the highest average policy effectiveness over six years was reached for onshore wind (4.2%), biofuels (3.6%) and biomass electricity (2.7%), while in the heat sector, all technologies score below 2%. Comparing the recent progress to the required growth for meeting the 2020 target, it appears that some countries largely exceed the interim targets of the RES Directive 2009/28/EC. Despite this, Europe will need additional policy effort to reach the 2020 target. Critical success factors include implementing effective and efficient policies that attract sufficient investments, reducing administrative and grid related barriers, especially in currently less advanced countries, upgrading the power grid infrastructure, dismantling financial barriers in the heat sector, realising sustainability standards for biomass, and lowering energy demand through increased energy efficiency efforts. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. Source

Lamers P.,Ecofys Germany | Lamers P.,University Utrecht | Junginger M.,University Utrecht | Hamelinck C.,Ecofys bv | Faaij A.,University Utrecht
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews | Year: 2012

This paper presents and analyses international solid biofuel trade and concludes upon interactions with bioenergy policies and market factors. It shows that trade has grown from about 56 to 300 PJ between 2000 and 2010. Wood pellets grew strongest, i.e. from 8.5 to 120 PJ. Other relevant streams by 2010 included wood waste (77 PJ), fuelwood (76 PJ), wood chips (17 PJ), residues (9 PJ), and roundwood (2.4 PJ). Intra-EU trade covered two thirds of global trade by 2010. Underlying markets are highly heterogeneous; generally though trade evolved whenever supply side market factors coincided with existing/emerging demand patterns. Market factors and policies both defined trade volumes; though policy changes did not have as prominent effects on trade developments as in the liquid biofuel sector. Economic viability is the key limiting factor. Main exporting countries have low feedstock costs and already existing wood processing industries. Trade-relevant aspects are the commodity's monetary value; determined by its homogeneity, heating value, and bulk density. Consumer markets are diverse: in residential heating, demand/trade patterns have been influenced by local biofuel availability and short-term price signals, i.e. mainly price competitiveness and investment support for boilers/stoves. Commodities are mainly sourced regionally, but price differences have triggered a growing trade. The industrial segment is greatly influenced by policy frameworks but more mature (e.g. established routes). Trade is strictly linked to margins (defined mainly by policies) and combustion technologies. Uncertainties in the analysis are due to data gaps across and within databases regarding import/export declarations. To estimate bioenergy related trade, anecdotal data was indispensable. We believe datasets should be streamlined across international institutions to eventually enable reporting of global trade beyond digit-6-level. Research is needed to provide further insights into informal markets. Interrelations between trade factors are particularly relevant when mapping future trade streams under different policy/trade regime scenarios. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Source

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