Connolly D.,University of Aalborg |
Lund H.,University of Aalborg |
Mathiesen B.V.,University of Aalborg |
Werner S.,Halmstad University |
And 6 more authors.
Energy Policy | Year: 2014
Six different strategies have recently been proposed for the European Union (EU) energy system in the European Commission's report, Energy Roadmap 2050. The objective for these strategies is to identify how the EU can reach its target of an 80% reduction in annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 compared to 1990 levels. None of these scenarios involve the large-scale implementation of district heating, but instead they focus on the electrification of the heating sector (primarily using heat pumps) and/or the large-scale implementation of electricity and heat savings. In this paper, the potential for district heating in the EU between now and 2050 is identified, based on extensive and detailed mapping of the EU heat demand and various supply options. Subsequently, a new 'district heating plus heat savings' scenario is technically and economically assessed from an energy systems perspective. The results indicate that with district heating, the EU energy system will be able to achieve the same reductions in primary energy supply and carbon dioxide emissions as the existing alternatives proposed. However, with district heating these goals can be achieved at a lower cost, with heating and cooling costs reduced by approximately 15%. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. Source
Papaefthymiou G.,Ecofys |
Papaefthymiou G.,Technical University of Delft |
Dragoon K.,Flink Energy Consulting
Energy Policy | Year: 2016
Relying almost entirely on energy from variable renewable resources such as wind and solar energy will require a transformation in the way power systems are planned and operated. This paper outlines the necessary steps in creating power systems with the flexibility needed to maintain stability and reliability while relying primarily on variable energy resources. These steps are provided in the form of a comprehensive overview of policies, technical changes, and institutional systems, organized in three development phases: an initial phase (penetration up to about 10%) characterized by relatively mild changes to conventional power system operations and structures; a dynamic middle phase (up to about 50% penetration) characterized by phasing out conventional generation and a concerted effort to wring flexibility from existing infrastructure; and the high penetration phase that inevitably addresses how power systems operate over longer periods of weeks or months when variable generation will be in either short supply, or in over-abundance. Although this transition is likely a decades-long and incremental process and depends on the specifics of each system, the needed policies, research, demonstration projects and institutional changes need to start now precisely because of the complexity of the transformation. The list of policy actions presented in this paper can serve as a guideline to policy makers on effectuating the transition and on tracking the preparedness of systems. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. Source
Korsholm U.S.,Danish Meteorological Institute |
Amstrup B.,Danish Meteorological Institute |
Boermans T.,Ecofys |
Sorensen J.H.,Danish Meteorological Institute |
Zhuang S.,Danish Meteorological Institute
Atmospheric Environment | Year: 2012
The effects of building insulation on ground-level concentration levels of air pollutants are considered. We have estimated regionally averaged reductions in energy consumption between 2005 and 2020 by comparing a business as usual with a very low energy building scenario for the EU-25. The corresponding reductions in air pollutant emissions were calculated using emission factors. Annual simulations with an air-quality model, where only the emission reductions due to insulation was accounted for, were compared for the scenarios, and statistically significant changes in ground-level mass concentration of main air pollutants were found. Emission reductions of up to 9% in particulate matter and 6.3% for sulphur dioxide were found in north-western Europe. Emission changes were negligible for volatile organic compounds, and carbon monoxide decreased by 0.6% over southern Europe while nitrogen oxides changed by up to 2.5% in the Baltic region. Seasonally and regionally averaged changes in ground-level mass concentrations showed that sulphur dioxide decreased by up to 6.2% and particulate matter by up to 3.6% in north-western Europe. Nitrogen oxide concentrations decreased by 1.7% in Poland and increases of up to 0.6% were found for ozone. Carbon monoxide changes were negligible throughout the modelling domain. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. Source
On March 11, 2016, a consortium made up of Ecofys, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , and E4tech announced that the final report on the Land Use Change study is now available online. The study was commissioned and funded by the European Commission and was focused on using the GLOBIOM model to determine ILUC associated with the ten percent renewable energy use target for transportation mandated by the European Union's 2020 goals. Start the conversation, or Read more at JD Supra.
News Article | April 14, 2016
A new report has concluded that even the most efficient coal plants are incompatible with global climate change goals. With world leaders heading to New York to sign the Paris Climate Change Agreement, a new report conducted by Ecofys and commissioned by WWF has concluded that any level of coal-fired power generation will tilt the world off-course from the internationally agreed-upon target of keeping temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. “The future of coal-fired power plants, even of ‘efficient’ ones, looks bleak due to the drastic CO2 emission reductions in the power sector that are needed to limit the global average temperature rise to well below 2°C, let alone the 1.5°C limit agreed in Paris,” said David de Jager, Principal Consultant at Ecofys. “This report discredits claims from the coal industry and governments such as those of Japan, Germany, South Korea, Australia, and Poland that efficient coal plants are compatible with climate action,” added Sebastien Godinot, Economist at WWF’s European Policy Office. “It is clear that in a post-Paris world, there is quite simply no role for coal, however ‘efficient’.” According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s assessment of various global emissions scenarios, the global electricity sector needs to be decarbonized by 2050 in order to meet commitments to keep temperature rise “to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.” Some governments and the coal industry itself have publicized the possibility that high-efficient low-emission (HELF) coal-fired plants are one way the energy sector could move towards near-zero emissions, while still maintaining the use of coal. However, according to the new Ecofys study, “HELF coal-fired electricity generation is incompatible with the goal to keep temperature rise under 2°C.” Specifically, according to the report’s authors, “The global carbon budget and the time remaining to reduce greenhouse gas emissions simply do not allow for replacement of retired coal plants with new more efficient coal plants, let alone capacity expansions.” As such, WWF has concluded and immediately called on governments to end public financial support for coal, and to phase out all coal plants by 2035 in OECD countries and 2050 globally. HELF technologies could reduce emissions — of that there is little doubt. The report claims that HELF technologies for coal-fired power generation could reduce emissions from over 1,000 gCO2/kWh for current operational coal plants, down to 670 gCO2/kWh for future “most efficient” coal plants. However, even that compares unfavorably with 350-490 gCO2/kWh for gas turbines or 0 gCO2/kWh direct emissions for wind and solar power. On top of that, there is currently 1,400 GW of additional coal capacity currently planned, and even if this whole figure was built using HELF technologies, it would still push the 2°C beyond reach. “With the G7 meeting in Japan, some of the biggest coal nations have a unique opportunity to begin to phase out coal subsidies and coal use,” concluded Godinot. Drive an electric car? Complete one of our short surveys for our next electric car report. Keep up to date with all the hottest cleantech news by subscribing to our (free) cleantech newsletter, or keep an eye on sector-specific news by getting our (also free) solar energy newsletter, electric vehicle newsletter, or wind energy newsletter.