Connolly D.,University of Aalborg |
Lund H.,University of Aalborg |
Mathiesen B.V.,University of Aalborg |
Werner S.,Halmstad University |
And 6 more authors.
Energy Policy | Year: 2014
Six different strategies have recently been proposed for the European Union (EU) energy system in the European Commission's report, Energy Roadmap 2050. The objective for these strategies is to identify how the EU can reach its target of an 80% reduction in annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 compared to 1990 levels. None of these scenarios involve the large-scale implementation of district heating, but instead they focus on the electrification of the heating sector (primarily using heat pumps) and/or the large-scale implementation of electricity and heat savings. In this paper, the potential for district heating in the EU between now and 2050 is identified, based on extensive and detailed mapping of the EU heat demand and various supply options. Subsequently, a new 'district heating plus heat savings' scenario is technically and economically assessed from an energy systems perspective. The results indicate that with district heating, the EU energy system will be able to achieve the same reductions in primary energy supply and carbon dioxide emissions as the existing alternatives proposed. However, with district heating these goals can be achieved at a lower cost, with heating and cooling costs reduced by approximately 15%. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. Source
Papaefthymiou G.,Ecofys |
Papaefthymiou G.,Technical University of Delft |
Dragoon K.,Flink Energy Consulting
Energy Policy | Year: 2016
Relying almost entirely on energy from variable renewable resources such as wind and solar energy will require a transformation in the way power systems are planned and operated. This paper outlines the necessary steps in creating power systems with the flexibility needed to maintain stability and reliability while relying primarily on variable energy resources. These steps are provided in the form of a comprehensive overview of policies, technical changes, and institutional systems, organized in three development phases: an initial phase (penetration up to about 10%) characterized by relatively mild changes to conventional power system operations and structures; a dynamic middle phase (up to about 50% penetration) characterized by phasing out conventional generation and a concerted effort to wring flexibility from existing infrastructure; and the high penetration phase that inevitably addresses how power systems operate over longer periods of weeks or months when variable generation will be in either short supply, or in over-abundance. Although this transition is likely a decades-long and incremental process and depends on the specifics of each system, the needed policies, research, demonstration projects and institutional changes need to start now precisely because of the complexity of the transformation. The list of policy actions presented in this paper can serve as a guideline to policy makers on effectuating the transition and on tracking the preparedness of systems. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. Source
Korsholm U.S.,Danish Meteorological Institute |
Amstrup B.,Danish Meteorological Institute |
Boermans T.,Ecofys |
Sorensen J.H.,Danish Meteorological Institute |
Zhuang S.,Danish Meteorological Institute
Atmospheric Environment | Year: 2012
The effects of building insulation on ground-level concentration levels of air pollutants are considered. We have estimated regionally averaged reductions in energy consumption between 2005 and 2020 by comparing a business as usual with a very low energy building scenario for the EU-25. The corresponding reductions in air pollutant emissions were calculated using emission factors. Annual simulations with an air-quality model, where only the emission reductions due to insulation was accounted for, were compared for the scenarios, and statistically significant changes in ground-level mass concentration of main air pollutants were found. Emission reductions of up to 9% in particulate matter and 6.3% for sulphur dioxide were found in north-western Europe. Emission changes were negligible for volatile organic compounds, and carbon monoxide decreased by 0.6% over southern Europe while nitrogen oxides changed by up to 2.5% in the Baltic region. Seasonally and regionally averaged changes in ground-level mass concentrations showed that sulphur dioxide decreased by up to 6.2% and particulate matter by up to 3.6% in north-western Europe. Nitrogen oxide concentrations decreased by 1.7% in Poland and increases of up to 0.6% were found for ozone. Carbon monoxide changes were negligible throughout the modelling domain. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. Source
On March 11, 2016, a consortium made up of Ecofys, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , and E4tech announced that the final report on the Land Use Change study is now available online. The study was commissioned and funded by the European Commission and was focused on using the GLOBIOM model to determine ILUC associated with the ten percent renewable energy use target for transportation mandated by the European Union's 2020 goals. Start the conversation, or Read more at JD Supra.
Greenhouse gas emitted by 2,440 potential coal plants -- on top of those already in operation -- would breach the UN target of restricting the planet's temperature rise, according to a mid-range estimate by Climate Action Tracker (AFP Photo/Patrik Stollarz) More Le Bourget (France) (AFP) - While scientists agree humanity needs to phase out coal within 35 years, thousands of new plants are being planned that would doom hopes of keeping global warming to safer levels, analysts said Tuesday. Greenhouse gas emitted by these 2,440 potential plants -- on top of those already in operation -- would breach the UN target of restricting the planet's temperature rise, according to a mid-range estimate by Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a respected research group. Members of the UN are striving for a pact to keep warming under two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than pre-industrial levels. Even if no new plants are built, emissions from coal-fired power generation in 2030 would be about 150 percent higher than they should be for staying under the 2C ceiling, said the CAT report, issued on the sidelines of the climate talks in Le Bourget. "There is a solution to this issue of too many coal plants on the books: cancel them," said Pieter van Breevoort of Ecofys, an energy research organisation which is part of the CAT project. "Renewable energy and stricter pollution standards are making coal plants obsolete around the world, and the earlier a coal plant is taken out of the planning process, the less it will cost." Cutting emissions is a core aim of 195 nations spending the next 10 days in Paris negotiating what is touted as a landmark post-2020 deal to roll back global warming. Despite the need to phase out greenhouse gas pollution from the energy sector, many nations -- including the United States and European Union countries -- are planning to build new coal-burning plants. New capacity is also a key plank in the energy strategies of emerging giants like China and India, seeking a cheap and plentiful fuel for their growing economies and populations. The planned new plants -- along with existing ones which will still be running in 2030 -- would send global emissions some 400 percent over the trajectory 2 C, according to the CAT report, compiled by four climate change research bodies. The estimate is based on a middle-of-the-range scenario for emissions. It said there are ways to increase coal use safely, but these would require large sums of money spent in the second half of the century on technology, including capturing and storing carbon emissions. With carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, emissions from power plants and other sources like steel mills are trapped and stored underground, out of harm's way. Doing so would add significantly to the cost of cutting emissions, raising questions of its viability. "Renewables are so cheap that it does not make sense to deploy CCS... It's simply too expensive," Bill Hare, chief executive of the Climate Analytics thinktank, told reporters in Paris. "From the CO2 emissions reduction perspective, we are far better off going to renewables and efficiency."