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Zhusupbekov A.Zh.,L.N.Gumilyov Eurasian National University | Alibekova N.T.,L.N.Gumilyov Eurasian National University | Abilmazhenov T.,L.N.Gumilyov Eurasian National University | Morev I.,L.N.Gumilyov Eurasian National University | And 4 more authors.
14th Asian Regional Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering | Year: 2011

At present the estimation of geological conditions of territory is impossible without geoinformation technologies. Technologies of geo-information system (GIS) are widely used for engineering-geological mapping, planning of development of territories, the forecast of dangerous natural processes, an estimation of various risks. All similar works are based on the control system of databases of the geological information which allow to receive the new information by modeling geotechnical properties of soils. To estimate engineering-geological conditions on the built-up territory of the city our Japanese colleagues of geotechnics and we have created the first Geoinformation database program based on the materials of geological engineering surveys on the projects of Astana city which allowed to analyze the regional conditions of soils prior to a detailed research. Source


News Article
Site: http://news.yahoo.com/science/

A Japanese volcano that last erupted in 1914 could be set to blow in the next few decades, new research suggests. The pool of liquid magma swelling beneath Sakurajima volcano is growing every year — a sign of a growing threat. "This big reservoir is growing, and it's growing at quite a fast rate," said study co-author James Hickey, a geophysical volcanologist at the University of Exeter's Camborne School of Mines in England. At the current rate, Sakurajima could erupt catastrophically in about 25 years, according to the study. The new analysis could also help scientists better forecast when other big volcanoes could erupt, the researchers said. [Raw Video: Volcano in Southern Japan Erupts] Sakurajima volcano, located on the southwestern edge of Japan's Kyushu island, last erupted in 1914, killing 58 people and causing a massive flood in the nearby seaside city of Kagoshima. Sakurajima is fed by a pool of magma lying beneath the subterranean Aira caldera, and the filling of this magma reservoir causes the volcano to have minor eruptions roughly every day. In the 1950s, scientists tried to quantify the risk of future eruptions at Sakurajima by using a simple model, assuming the Earth's surface above the volcano was flat and that the pool of magma was spherical. The model had a big advantage: "You can basically solve it with pen and paper," Hickey told Live Science. However, over the years, scientists realized that this ultrasimplified model did not match volcanic activity at Sakurajima. To better forecast eruptions at Sakurajima, Hickey and his colleagues developed a much more complicated computer model — one that incorporated the unique topography of the area surrounding the volcano. That model also took into account that the Earth's crust is made up of different layers, with different properties. Then, the team incorporated data from seismometers and highly precise GPS devices placed in and around the volcano. Those sensors revealed tiny changes in the Earth that were clues to the activity of the magma pool deep below. The researchers discovered that the reservoir of magma beneath the caldera was growing at a significant rate. From this model, they forecast that it would take 130 years from the past major eruption for the next one to occur — meaning the region is due for a major explosion around 2044. The new model was better at capturing past behavior at the volcano, the researchers reported today (Sept. 13) in the journal Scientific Reports. It also found that the pool of magma beneath the caldera looks more squashed and oblong than spherical, Hickey said. Volcanologists don't have a crystal ball, however, and the current forecast could be slightly off because they assume a constant growth rate for the magma pool. But if the daily eruptions were to increase to two or three times per day — releasing small amounts of that magma — that could offset the growth of the magma pool, which could delay a deadly eruption for a long time, Hickey said. And even with highly accurate models, volcanoes sometimes surprise experts. For instance, in 2014, Mount Ontake volcano in Japan erupted without warning, killing about 57 people. However, leaders in the region are already prepared for an eruption in the near term: The Kagoshima City Office prepared a new evacuation plan after an eruption scare in August 2015 prompted an evacuation crisis, study co-author Haruhisa Nakamichi, associate professor at the Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, said in a statement. Copyright 2016 LiveScience, a Purch company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


Moya A.,Disaster Prevention Research Institute | Moya A.,University of Costa Rica | Irikura K.,Disaster Prevention Research Institute | Irikura K.,Aichi Institute of Technology
Computers and Geosciences | Year: 2010

We present a velocity model inversion approach using artificial neural networks (NN). We selected four aftershocks from the 2000 Tottori, Japan, earthquake located around station SMNH01 in order to determine a 1D nearby underground velocity model. An NN was trained independently for each earthquake-station profile. We generated many velocity models and computed their corresponding synthetic waveforms. The waveforms were presented to NN as input. Training consisted in associating each waveform to the corresponding velocity model. Once trained, the actual observed records of the four events were presented to the network to predict their velocity models. In that way, four 1D profiles were obtained individually for each of the events. Each model was tested by computing the synthetic waveforms for other events recorded at SMNH01 and at two other nearby stations: TTR007 and TTR009. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. Source


Goda K.,University of BristolBristol | Yasuda T.,Disaster Prevention Research Institute | Mori N.,Disaster Prevention Research Institute | Mai P.M.,Earth Science and Engineering
Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans | Year: 2015

The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints. © 2015. The Authors. Source


Tanaka T.,Disaster Prevention Research Institute
Fire Safety Journal | Year: 2012

Various types of fires occurred following the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March, 2011 in extensive areas across the Tohoku and Kanto districts. It was, of course, difficult for a limited number of fire researchers to thoroughly investigate the fires, which were distributed over extremely wide areas. Nevertheless, it was necessary to make the investigations before the fire scenes had been lost with time. A joint effort was made by people from universities, national research institutes and industries related with fire research and safety. Although it will take some more time before satisfactory results of the investigation are made public, this paper attempts to outline the peculiar features of the fires that have been revealed at this point. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. Source

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