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Mark O.,DHI Horsholm Denmark | Jorgensen C.,DHI Horsholm Denmark | Hammond M.,University of Exeter | Khan D.,Institute for Water Modelling Dhaka Bangladesh | And 3 more authors.
Journal of Flood Risk Management | Year: 2015

The phenomenon of urban flooding due to rainfall exceeding the design capacity of drainage systems is a global problem and can have significant economic and social consequences. This is even more extreme in developing countries, where poor sanitation still causes a high infectious disease burden and mortality, especially during floods. At present, there are no software tools capable of combining hydrodynamic modelling and health risk analyses, and the links between urban flooding and the health risk for the population due to direct contact with the flood water are poorly understood. The present paper outlines a novel methodology for linking dynamic urban flood modelling with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This provides a unique possibility for understanding the interaction between urban flooding and health risk caused by direct human contact with the flood water and hence gives an option for reducing the burden of disease in the population by use of intelligent urban flood risk management. The model linking urban flooding and health risk is applied to Dhaka City in Bangladesh, where waterborne diseases including cholera are endemic. The application to Dhaka City is supported by measurements of pathogens in the urban drainage system. The outcome of the application indicates that direct contact with polluted flood water is a plausible route of primary transmission of cholera and demonstrates the applicability and the potential for linking urban flood models with QMRA in order to identify interventions to reduce the burden of disease on the population in Dhaka City. © 2015 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rene J.-R.,University of Exeter | Djordjevic S.,University of Exeter | Butler D.,University of Exeter | Mark O.,DHI Horsholm Denmark | And 3 more authors.
Journal of Flood Risk Management | Year: 2015

In the last decade, real-time flood forecasting has become a more feasible approach to reducing the impacts of flooding in urban areas. Two key tools in this context are high resolution hydrodynamic modelling in combination with accurate hydrological forcing. In some cases, when it is not possible to produce such accurate flood forecasts based on high resolution models and data, it may nevertheless be possible to use the resources currently available, accepting that there is a greater degree of uncertainty involved. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of a remotely controlled, real-time, pluvial flood forecasting system for Castries, St. Lucia that utilises the limited data available locally. The results from the study suggest that although Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall data may be considered coarse for urban applications, there is still a significant amount of skill and usability after it is postprocessed and used in combination with observed rainfall data. Evidence from the study also suggests that the use of images from different sources is invaluable for 2D overland model calibration and validation in urban areas. Conclusions from the study are potentially transferable to other sites in similar data-scare and resource-limited locations. © 2015 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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