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Grant
Agency: Cordis | Branch: FP7 | Program: CP-FP | Phase: SPA.2013.2.3-01 | Award Amount: 2.54M | Year: 2013

Over the last ten years the number of satellites on orbit has grown significantly to more than 1000. We also depend on satellites more than ever for applications such as TV, internet, mobile phones, navigation, banking and finance. All these satellites must be designed to withstand the harsh radiation in space for up to 15 years or more. Space weather events can increase radiation levels by five orders of magnitude in the Earths radiation belts and trigger bursts of high energy particles which can disrupt satellite operations and sometimes cause a complete satellite loss. Europe is investing heavily in space with the Galileo radio-navigation system and developing a competitive space industry. It is therefore important that we assess and mitigate the impact of space weather, particularly extreme events. This proposal brings together scientists and engineers from across Europe with commercial stakeholders to assess the impact of space weather and develop mitigation strategies. We will undertake studies of past space weather events using state-of-the-art computer models and data analysis techniques. We will reconstruct 30 years of the radiation environment for medium Earth orbit for Galileo, and for geostationary orbit. We will use data, models, and plasma theory to define the radiation environment for extreme space weather events, and conduct simulations and experiments to determine the impact on systems and components. We will assess the risk and develop new mitigation guidelines. We will perform experiments on new materials and techniques to reduce surface charging on solar arrays, and develop better physical models to forecast the radiation belts to provide warnings and alerts. We will develop a stakeholder community and deliver the results in a form accessible to the public. The project will deliver data, mitigation guidelines and experimental results that will continue long after the project and which will improve the design of future satellites.


Grant
Agency: Cordis | Branch: FP7 | Program: CPCSA | Phase: INFRA-2011-1.2.2. | Award Amount: 5.89M | Year: 2011

The ESPAS project will provide the e-Infrastructure necessary to support the access to observations, the modeling and prediction of the Near-Earth Space environment. This includes the plasma and energetic particle environments that surround our planet as well as the neutral atmosphere at altitudes above 60 km. These environments are an important target for future research in areas such as space weather and Sun-climate studies. The ESPAS interface will provide access to a diverse set of databases that have been developed for the needs of different users. Thus a primary goal is to facilitate user access to heterogeneous data from multiple providers, ranging from ground-based observations acquired with multiple instruments and techniques, to data from satellite experiments, using a mixture of in-situ and remotely sensed techniques. The results of searches will be delivered in a scientist-friendly manner based on existing standards and protocols. The infrastructure will also be used as a test-bed for development of methodologies and standards for validation of models of the near-Earth environment. This will lead to validated predictions of conditions in that environment, and thus promote the transfer of space environment science products into commercial and operational applications.


Sandberg I.,Institute of Accelerating Systems and Applications | Sandberg I.,National and Kapodistrian University of Athens | Sandberg I.,National institute for astrophysics | Jiggens P.,European Space Agency | And 3 more authors.
Geophysical Research Letters | Year: 2014

Solar proton flux measurements onboard Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) are of great importance as they cover several solar cycles, increasingly contributing to the development of long-term solar proton models and to operational purposes such as now-casting and forecasting of space weather. A novel approach for the cross calibration of GOES solar proton detectors is developed using as reference energetic solar proton flux measurements of NASA IMP-8 Goddard Medium Energy Experiment (GME). The spurious behavior in a part of IMP-8/GME measurements is reduced through the derivation of a nonlinear intercalibration function. The effective energy values of GOES solar proton detectors lead to a significant reduction of the uncertainties in spectra and may be used to refine existing scientific results, available models, and data products based on measurements over the last three decades. The methods presented herein are generic and may be used for calibration processes of other data sets as well. Key Points Calibration of NOAA GOES/EPS energy proton channels Correction of NASA IMP-8/GME data set Novel generic calibration techniques are presented ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.


Sandberg I.,National institute for astrophysics | Sandberg I.,National and Kapodistrian University of Athens | Daglis I.A.,National and Kapodistrian University of Athens | Daglis I.A.,National institute for astrophysics | And 5 more authors.
IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science | Year: 2014

In this work we present the development of the electron Slot Region Radiation Environment Model (e-SRREM). e-SRREM is a data-based statistical model which has been built on fifteen years of electron flux measurements. The model describes the trapped electron radiation in a region that includes the slot region between the inner and the outer electron radiation belts. The model provides energetic electron fluxes with their uncertainties determined by confidence levels for user-defined mission orbit and duration. First comparisons of e-SRREM with the AE8 and International Radiation Environment Near Earth (IRENE) AE9 models show that the aforementioned models underestimate the electron flux levels along highly elliptic orbit that crosses the slot region. Extensive testings and comparisons will follow in future work. © 2013 IEEE.


Grant
Agency: Cordis | Branch: FP7 | Program: CP | Phase: SPA.2010.2.1-03;SPA.2010.2.3-1 | Award Amount: 2.48M | Year: 2010

The SEPServer project will address the topic SPA.2010.2.1-03, Exploitation of space science and exploration data, of the call FP7-SPACE-2010-1. Through its impact, the project may also support other projects funded through the topic SPA.2010.2.3-01, Security of space assets from space weather events. The main objective of the SEPServer project is to produce a new tool, which greatly facilitates the investigation of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and their origin: a server providing SEP data, related electromagnetic (EM) observations and analysis methods, a comprehensive catalogue of the observed SEP events, and educational/outreach material on solar eruptions. The SEPServer project is coordinated by Dr. Rami Vainio, University of Helsinki. The project will combine data and knowledge from 11 European partners and several collaborating parties from Europe and US. The work is organised in 7 work packages (WPs): 1 Management; 2 SEP observations; 3 EM observations; 4 Simulations and inversion tools; 5 Scientific data analysis; 6 Server development; and 7 Dissemination and external coordination. WPs 2-5 provide data and analysis tools to the server development (WP6); the scientific data analysis (WP5) then makes use of these data and tools making sure that they meet the needs of the lead users. SEPServer will add value to several space missions and earth-based observations by facilitating the coordinated exploitation of and open access to SEP data and related EM observations, and promoting correct use of these data for the entire space research community. This will lead to new knowledge on the production and transport of SEPs during solar eruptions and facilitate the development of models for predicting solar radiation storms and calculation of expected fluxes/fluences of SEPs encountered by spacecraft in the interplanetary medium. SEPServer will, thus, add value to the national and European activities by combining them to a comprehensive space storm analysis service.


Grant
Agency: Cordis | Branch: FP7 | Program: CP | Phase: SPA.2010.2.3-1 | Award Amount: 2.54M | Year: 2011

Solar activity can trigger sporadic bursts of energetic particles and increase the number of high energy (MeV) particles trapped inside the Earths radiation belts. These high energy particles cause damage to satellites and are a hazard for manned spaceflight and aviation. They are difficult to predict due to uncertainties over the basic physical processes, and the need to access reliable data in real time. European space policy is committed to the Galileo radionavigation system consisting of 30 satellites, the use of space assets to protect the security of its citizens (GMES), and a strong and competitive space industry. It is therefore imperative that Europe develops the means to protect these space assets from all forms of space weather hazards, and especially now as solar activity will increase to a maximum over the next few years and will increase the hazard risk. This proposal will draw together European and international partners to increase knowledge, reduce uncertainty, and to develop a forecasting capability. We will undertake targeted studies of particle source, transport, acceleration and loss processes in the Earths radiation belts to improve understanding of how they respond to solar activity. We will transform research models into space weather models to forecast the radiation belts in near real time, and provide alerts for periods of high risk to stakeholders. We will test models of how solar energetic particles are accelerated by shocks in the solar wind, and are transported through the interplanetary medium, in order to improve engineering tools for predicting the intensity and fluence of solar energetic particle events. We will develop a stakeholder community for valuable feedback and deliver the results in a form accessible to the public. The project will deliver a space weather forecasting capability that will continue beyond the lifetime of the project and which will lay the foundation for an operational system.


McKenna-Lawlor S.,National University of Ireland, Maynooth | Goncalves P.,Portuguese Laboratory of Instrumentation and Experimental Particle Physics | Keating A.,Portuguese Laboratory of Instrumentation and Experimental Particle Physics | Morgado B.,Portuguese Laboratory of Instrumentation and Experimental Particle Physics | And 8 more authors.
Icarus | Year: 2012

The 'Mars Energetic Radiation Environment Models' (dMEREM and eMEREM) recently developed for the European Space Agency are herein used to estimate, for the first time, background Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) radiation and flare related solar energetic particle (SEP) events at three candidate martian landing sites under conditions where particle arrival occurred at solar minimum (December, 2006) and solar maximum (April, 2002) during Solar Cycle 23. The three landing sites were selected on the basis that they are characterized by significantly different hydrological conditions and soil compositions. Energetic particle data sets recorded on orbit at Mars at the relevant times were incomplete because of gaps in the measurements due to operational constraints. Thus, in the present study, comprehensive near-Earth particle measurements made aboard the GOES spacecraft were used as proxies to estimate the overall particle doses at each perspective landing site, assuming in each case that the fluxes fell off as 1/r 2 (where r is the helio-radial distance) and that good magnetic connectivity always prevailed. The results indicate that the particle radiation environment on Mars can vary according to the epoch concerned and the landing site selected. Particle estimations obtained using MEREM are in reasonable agreement, given the inherent differences between the models, with the related NASA Heavy Ion-Nucleon Transport Code for Space Radiation/HZETRN. Both sets of results indicated that, for short (30days) stays, the atmosphere of Mars, in the cases of the SEPs studied and the then prevailing background galactic cosmic radiation, provided sufficient shielding at the planetary surface to maintain annual skin and blood forming organ/BFO dose levels below currently accepted ionizing radiation exposure limits. The threat of occurrence of a hard spectrum SEP during Cruise-Phase transfers to/from Mars over 400days, combined with the associated cumulative effect of prolonged GCR exposure, poses an as yet unsolved hazard to prospective onboard personnel. © 2011 Elsevier Inc..


Yu Ganushkina N.,Finnish Meteorological Institute | Yu Ganushkina N.,University of Michigan | Amariutei O.A.,Finnish Meteorological Institute | Welling D.,University of Michigan | Heynderickx D.,DH Consultancy
Space Weather | Year: 2015

We present the nowcast model for low-energy (< 200 keV) electrons in the inner magnetosphere, which is the version of the Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration Model (IMPTAM) for electrons. Low-energy electron fluxes are very important to specify when hazardous satellite surface-charging phenomena are considered. The presented model provides the low-energy electron flux at all L shells and at all satellite orbits, when necessary. The model is driven by the real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters with 1 h time shift for propagation to the Earth's magnetopause and by the real time Dst index. Real-time geostationary GOES 13 or GOES 15 (whenever each is available) data on electron fluxes in three energies, such as 40 keV, 75 keV, and 150 keV, are used for comparison and validation of IMPTAM running online. On average, the model provides quite reasonable agreement with the data; the basic level of the observed fluxes is reproduced. The best agreement between the modeled and the observed fluxes are found for <100 keV electrons. At the same time, not all the peaks and dropouts in the observed electron fluxes are reproduced. For 150 keV electrons, the modeled fluxes are often smaller than the observed ones by an order of magnitude. The normalized root-mean-square deviation is found to range from 0.015 to 0.0324. Though these metrics are buoyed by large standard deviations, owing to the dynamic nature of the fluxes, they demonstrate that IMPTAM, on average, predicts the observed fluxes satisfactorily. The computed binary event tables for predicting high flux values within each 1 h window reveal reasonable hit rates being 0.660-0.318 for flux thresholds of 5·104-2·105 cm-2 s-1 sr-1 keV-1 for 40 keV electrons, 0.739-0.367 for flux thresholds of 3·104 -1·105 cm-2 s-1 sr-1 keV-1 for 75 keV electrons, and 0.485-0.438 for flux thresholds of 3·103 -3.5·103 cm-2 s-1 sr-1 keV-1 for 150 keV electrons but rather small Heidke Skill Scores (0.17 and below). This is the first attempt to model low-energy electrons in real time at 10 min resolution. The output of this model can serve as an input of electron seed population for real-time higher-energy radiation belt modeling. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.


Horne R.B.,Natural Environment Research Council | Glauert S.A.,Natural Environment Research Council | Meredith N.P.,Natural Environment Research Council | Boscher D.,ONERA | And 3 more authors.
Space Weather | Year: 2013

Satellites can be damaged by high energy charged particles in the Earth's radiation belts and during solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Here we review the growing reliance on satellite services, new vulnerabilities to space weather, and previous events that have led to loss of service. We describe a new European system to forecast the radiation belts up to 3 h ahead, which has three unique features: first, it uses physics-based models, which include wave-particle interactions; second, it provides a forecast for the whole outer radiation belt including geostationary, medium, and slot region orbits; third, it is a truly international effort including Europe, United States, and Japan. During the 8-9 March 2012 storm and SEP event, the models were able to forecast the >800 keV electron flux to within a factor of 2 initially, and later to within a factor of 10 of the GOES data. Although ACE and GOES data became unreliable during the SEP event, the system continued forecasting without interruption using ground-based magnetometers. A forecast of the 24 h electron fluence >2 MeV is used to provide a risk index for satellite operators. We show that including wave-particle interactions for L* > 6.5 improves the agreement with GOES data substantially and that a fast inward motion of the magnetopause to L* < 8 is related to rapid loss of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit. Thus, we suggest that better wave-particle models and better coupling between the solar wind and the models of the magnetopause and radiation belts should lead to better forecasting. Key Points New physics based radiation belt forcasting system Wave-particle interactions can improve radiation belt forecasting significantly Increasing dependence on satelites poses new risk ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.


Ganushkina N.Y.,University of Michigan | Amariutei O.A.,Finnish Meteorological Institute | Welling D.,University of Michigan | Heynderickx D.,DH Consultancy
Space Weather | Year: 2015

We present the nowcast model for low-energy (<200 keV) electrons in the inner magnetosphere, which is the version of the Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration Model (IMPTAM) for electrons. Low-energy electron fluxes are very important to specify when hazardous satellite surface-charging phenomena are considered. The presented model provides the low-energy electron flux at all L shells and at all satellite orbits, when necessary. The model is driven by the real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters with 1 h time shift for propagation to the Earth's magnetopause and by the real time Dst index. Real-time geostationary GOES 13 or GOES 15 (whenever each is available) data on electron fluxes in three energies, such as 40 keV, 75 keV, and 150 keV, are used for comparison and validation of IMPTAM running online. On average, the model provides quite reasonable agreement with the data; the basic level of the observed fluxes is reproduced. The best agreement between the modeled and the observed fluxes are found for <100 keV electrons. At the same time, not all the peaks and dropouts in the observed electron fluxes are reproduced. For 150 keV electrons, the modeled fluxes are often smaller than the observed ones by an order of magnitude. The normalized root-mean-square deviation is found to range from 0.015 to 0.0324. Though these metrics are buoyed by large standard deviations, owing to the dynamic nature of the fluxes, they demonstrate that IMPTAM, on average, predicts the observed fluxes satisfactorily. The computed binary event tables for predicting high flux values within each 1 h window reveal reasonable hit rates being 0.660-0.318 for flux thresholds of 5 ·104-2 ·105 cm-2 s-1 sr-1 keV-1 for 40 keV electrons, 0.739-0.367 for flux thresholds of 3 ·104-1 ·105 cm-2 s-1 sr-1 keV-1 for 75 keV electrons, and 0.485-0.438 for flux thresholds of 3 ·103-3.5 ·103 cm-2 s-1 sr-1 keV-1 for 150 keV electrons but rather small Heidke Skill Scores (0.17 and below). This is the first attempt to model low-energy electrons in real time at 10 min resolution. The output of this model can serve as an input of electron seed population for real-time higher-energy radiation belt modeling. © 2014 American Geophysical Union.

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