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Sovacool B.K.,Vermont Law School | Sovacool B.K.,University of Aarhus | Saunders H.,The Breakthrough Institute | Saunders H.,Decision Processes Incorporated
Energy | Year: 2014

To underscore both the diversity and severity of energy security tradeoffs, this study examines five different energy security policy packages-five distinct strategies aimed at reducing oil dependence, enhancing energy affordability, expanding access to modern energy services, responding to climate change, and minimizing the water intensity of energy production. It identifies both compelling synergies and conflicts between each of the five strategies. The central value of the study is that it turns on its head the widely accepted notion of a "portfolio approach" or "all of the above" strategy to energy policymaking. To make this case, the article begins by elucidating the complexity and multidimensionality of energy security as a concept. It then introduces our five energy security policy packages to illustrate how some energy security objectives complement each other whereas others counteract each other. It concludes by noting that energy security is not an absolute state, and that achieving it only "works" by prioritizing some dimensions, or policy goals and packages, more than others. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Tsao J.Y.,Sandia National Laboratories | Wierer Jr. J.J.,Sandia National Laboratories | Rohwer L.E.S.,Sandia National Laboratories | Coltrin M.E.,Sandia National Laboratories | And 7 more authors.
Topics in Applied Physics | Year: 2013

Technologies for artificial lighting, as illustrated on the left side of Fig. 2.1, have made tremendous progress over the centuries: from fire, with an efficiency of about a tenth of a percent; to incandescent lamps, with an efficiency of about 4 %; to gas discharge lamps, with an efficiency of about 20 %; and soon to solid-state lighting (SSL), with efficiencies that in principle could approach 100 %. At this point in time, there is virtually no question that SSL will eventually displace its predecessor technologies. A remaining question, however, is what the final efficiency of SSL will be. Will it be, as illustrated on the right side of Fig. 2.1, 50 %, which is what the community (Haitz and Tsao in Phys. Status Solidi A 208:17-29, 2011) has long targeted as its "efficient" lighting goal? Will it be 70 % or higher, which is what some (Phillips et al. in Laser Photon. Rev. 1:307-333, 2007) have called the "ultra-efficient" lighting goal? Or will it be even beyond an effective efficiency of 100 %, something that might be enabled by smart lighting (Kim and Schubert in Science 308:1274-1278, 2005), in which one doesn't just engineer the efficiency with which light is produced, but the efficiency with which light is used? In this chapter, we give a perspective on the future of SSL, with a focus on ultra-high efficiencies. We ask, and sketch answers to, three questions. First, what are some of the likely characteristics of ultra-efficient SSL? Second, what are some of the economic benefits of ultra-efficient SSL? And, third, what are some of the challenges associated with the various technological approaches that could be explored for ultra-efficient SSL?

Saunders H.D.,Decision Processes Incorporated
Energy Journal | Year: 2015

New research using data spanning centuries reveals the presence of very large energy efficiency rebound magnitudes, calling into question the energy use forecasts relied on by international bodies investigating climate change mitigation policy. This article uses those recent results to highlight and explain the key drivers that future energy modelers need to incorporate. Copyright © 2015 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.

Saunders H.D.,Decision Processes Incorporated
Energy Efficiency | Year: 2015

This communication presents a prescription for changing the way natural gas is used that promises to deliver significant increases in economy-wide energy efficiency. By substituting wherever possible gas for electricity in end uses, economies—especially developing economies—can realize significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, can conserve energy resources, and can reduce the overall financial costs of energy systems. The idea is eminently practical, not speculative. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Tsao J.Y.,Sandia National Laboratories | Saunders H.D.,Decision Processes Incorporated | Creighton J.R.,Sandia National Laboratories | Coltrin M.E.,Sandia National Laboratories | Simmons J.A.,Sandia National Laboratories
Journal of Physics D: Applied Physics | Year: 2010

Artificial light has long been a significant factor contributing to the quality and productivity of human life. As a consequence, we are willing to use huge amounts of energy to produce it. Solid-state lighting (SSL) is an emerging technology that promises performance features and efficiencies well beyond those of traditional artificial lighting, accompanied by potentially massive shifts in (a) the consumption of light, (b) the human productivity and energy use associated with that consumption and (c) the semiconductor chip area inventory and turnover required to support that consumption. In this paper, we provide estimates of the baseline magnitudes of these shifts using simple extrapolations of past behaviour into the future. For past behaviour, we use recent studies of historical and contemporary consumption patterns analysed within a simple energy-economics framework (a Cobb-Douglas production function and profit maximization). For extrapolations into the future, we use recent reviews of believed-achievable long-term performance targets for SSL. We also discuss ways in which the actual magnitudes could differ from the baseline magnitudes of these shifts. These include: changes in human societal demand for light; possible demand for features beyond lumens; and guidelines and regulations aimed at economizing on consumption of light and associated energy. © 2010 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Saunders H.D.,Decision Processes Incorporated | Saunders H.D.,The Breakthrough Institute
Ecological Economics | Year: 2014

Popular trends in ecological economics increasingly consign neoclassical economics to the sidelines of modern-day relevancy. The neoclassical tradition is often seen as reliant for its authenticity on a presumption of human avarice - both unbridled consumerism and corporate cupidity - and demanding for its real-world applicability an assumption of continuous economic growth in a world of hard limits.This article examines the question of whether neoclassical theory could instead provide keys to deeper understanding of sustainable consumption. By combining in a single framework neoclassical growth theory, general equilibrium theory and duality theory - and by explicitly considering leisure time - the analysis demonstrates that neoclassical economics yields several useful insights bearing on long-term sustainability. The analysis confirms several tenets of ecological economics and challenges others.Eight propositions emerge from this analysis that could help speed the development of a robust neoclassical theory of sustainable consumption, here branded "golden age" propositions as they strongly echo the "Golden Rule" discoveries of Edmund Phelps. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Saunders H.,Decision Processes Incorporated
Energy Policy | Year: 2013

This paper examines the question of whether unexpectedly high energy use in the wake of energy efficiency gains can be explained as arising from increases in consumer wealth, as opposed to energy efficiency rebound effects. The analysis concludes that historical energy consumption increases were driven by more than just income levels, with the lowest-income consumers in the US using more energy in 2002 than they did in 1987 despite significant energy use efficiency gains and despite declining average incomes in this category. Further, direct use of energy in households increased for all income categories over this time period. These results point to rebound as being the culprit, not income effects. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

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