Toronto, Canada
Toronto, Canada

Time filter

Source Type

Bridges T.S.,U.S. Army | Kovacs D.,Decision Partners LLC | Wood M.D.,U.S. Army | Baker K.,U.S. Army | And 3 more authors.
Environment Systems and Decisions | Year: 2013

The potential impacts of climate change are varied and highly uncertain, and pose a significant challenge to agencies charged with managing environmental risks. This paper presents a comprehensive and structured Mental Modeling approach to elicit, organize and present relevant information from experts and stakeholders about the factors influencing environmental risk management in the face of climate change. We present and review an initiative undertaken by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to characterize climate change challenges to USACE environmental risk management activities, and to identify gaps with respect to science, engineering, and organizational processes for addressing these challenges. By employing Mental Modeling, the research has characterized the influences of climate change on USACE environmental risk management, and aggregating recommendations from 28 experts. In addition, the study identifies the most important opportunities to improve organizational response to climate change, ranging from focused research and development of technical capabilities to broad paradigm shifts and systemic organizational improvements within the USACE environmental risk management programs. This study demonstrates that Mental Modeling is a useful tool for understanding complex problems, identifying gaps, and formulating strategies, and can be used by a multitude of organizations and agencies. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York (outside the USA).


Wood M.,U.S. Army | Kovacs D.,Decision Partners LLC | Bostrom A.,University of Washington | Bridges T.,U.S. Army | Linkov I.,U.S. Army
Risk Analysis | Year: 2012

Recent severe storm experiences in the U.S. Gulf Coast illustrate the importance of an integrated approach to flood preparedness planning that harmonizes stakeholder and agency efforts. Risk management decisions that are informed by and address decision maker and stakeholder risk perceptions and behavior are essential for effective risk management policy. A literature review and two expert models/mental models studies were undertaken to identify areas of importance in the flood risk management process for layperson, non-USACE-expert, and two USACE-expert groups. In characterizing and mapping stakeholder beliefs about risks in the literature onto current risk management practice, recommendations for accommodating and changing stakeholder perceptions of flood risks and their management are identified. Needs of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) flood preparedness and response program are discussed in the context of flood risk mental models. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.


Galada H.C.,Drexel University | Gurian P.L.,Drexel University | Olson M.S.,Drexel University | Teng J.,Drexel University | And 4 more authors.
Water Environment Research | Year: 2013

Although deviations from standard guidance for land application of biosolids occur in practice, their importance is largely unknown. A list of such deviations (plausible failure scenarios) were identified at a workshop of industry, regulators, and academic professionals. Next, a survey of similar professionals was conducted to rank the plausible failure scenarios according to their severity, frequency, incentive to ignore control measures, gaps in existing control processes, public concern, and overall concern. Survey participants rated intentional dumping (unpermitted disposal) as the most severe of the failure scenarios, lack of worker protection as the most frequent scenario, and application of Class A biosolids that have failed to meet treatment standards as the scenario for which incentives to ignore control measures are highest. Failure of public access restrictions to application sites was the scenario for which existing controls were judged the weakest; application of biosolids too close to wells was ranked highest for public concern and for overall concern. Two scenarios for which existing controls were considered weaker, site restriction violations and animal contact leading to human exposure, were also rated as frequently occurring. Both scenarios are related in that they (1) involve inappropriate access to a site before the required time has elapsed, and (2) could be addressed through similar biosolids management measures.


Patent
Decision Partners LLC | Date: 2016-01-06

A mental modeling method and system may include providing at least one expert model, the at least one expert model including an analytical framework that summarizes subject matter expert-level knowledge. At least one mental model of at least one individual that summarizes subject matter individual-level knowledge is provided. The at least one expert model is modified based on the at least one mental model to provide at least one updated expert model.


Patent
Decision Partners LLC | Date: 2013-08-30

A mental modeling method and system may include providing at least one expert model, the at least one expert model including an analytical framework that summarizes subject matter expert-level knowledge. At least one mental model of at least one individual that summarizes subject matter individual-level knowledge is provided. The at least one expert model is modified based on the at least one mental model to provide at least one updated expert model.

Loading Decision Partners LLC collaborators
Loading Decision Partners LLC collaborators