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Mason B.W.,Communicable Disease Surveillance Center | Chalmers R.M.,UK Cryptosporidium Reference Unit | Carnicer-Pont D.,Health Protection Team | Casemore D.P.,Aberystwyth University
Journal of Water and Health | Year: 2010

An outbreak in the autumn of 2005 resulted in 218 confirmed cases of Cryptosporidium hominis. The attack rate (relative risk 4.1, 95%CI 2.8-9.1) was significantly higher in the population supplied by Cwellyn Water Treatment Works (WTW). A case-control study demonstrated a statistically significant association (odds ratio 6.1, 95% CI 1.8-23.8) between drinking unboiled tap water and C. hominis infection. The association remained significant in a logistic regression analysis, with an adjusted odds ratio of 1.30 (95 CI 1.05-1.61) per glass of unboiled tap water consumed per day. This evidence together with environmental and associated microbiological investigations, and the absence of effective treatment to remove Cryptosporidium oocysts at the WTW, led to the conclusion that the outbreak was waterborne. Oocyst counts in final treated water at the WTW and at different points in the distribution system were consistently very low, maximum count in continuous monitoring 0.08 oocysts per 10 litres. Data from continuous monitoring and the epidemic curve is consistent with the hypothesis that low numbers of oocysts of C hominis were present in treated water continuously during the outbreak and these were of sufficient infectivity to cause illness. All surface water derived water supplies present a potential risk to human health and appropriate control measures should be in place to minimise these risks. © IWA Publishing 2010. Source

Roberts J.R.,Public Health NHS Bristol | Mason B.W.,Communicable Disease Surveillance Center | Paranjothy S.,University of Cardiff | Palmer S.R.,University of Cardiff
Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal | Year: 2012

Little is known about the risk of tuberculosis transmission from children. We reviewed the published literature on the transmission of tuberculosis during outbreaks involving children 3 to 11 years of age and report that transmission rates among close contacts in school outbreaks are on average higher (weighted average 69.8% vs. 39.3%) if the index case is a child than an adult. © 2012 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. Source

Wyer M.D.,Aberystwyth University | Wyn-Jones A.P.,Aberystwyth University | Kay D.,Aberystwyth University | Au-Yeung H.K.C.,Communicable Disease Surveillance Center | And 5 more authors.
Water Research | Year: 2012

Human adenoviruses (HAdV) may be implicated in some disease outbreaks associated with recreational water exposures, typically in swimming pools. Modern molecular methods can be used to detect HAdV in environmental water samples. During the EU FP6 Project VIROBATHE a database of over 290 HAdV analyses with corresponding faecal indicator organism (FIO) determinations was gathered and used to explore statistical associations between HAdV and FIO results. The FIOs measured were Escherichia coli, intestinal enterococci and somatic coliphage. Statistically significant trends of increasing proportions of HAdV-positive results in categories of increasing FIO concentration were found in freshwater but not seawater samples. The analysis of these trends in freshwater samples was refined, the trends remaining statistically significant when using categories of 0.5 log10 intervals of FIO concentration. Logistic regression models were then developed to predict the probability of a HAdV-positive outcome from FIO concentration. Potential applications of these models to predict the probability of HAdV-positive outcomes from routine FIO determinations used to describe recreational water quality exposures and to classify recreational water quality are discussed. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. Source

Jebbari H.,Public Health England | Simms I.,Public Health England | Conti S.,Public Health England | Marongiu A.,Public Health England | And 5 more authors.
Sexually Transmitted Infections | Year: 2011

Objective: To investigate factors associated with variations in diagnoses of primary, secondary and early latent syphilis in England and Wales. Methods: Data were derived from two sources: diagnoses made in genitourinary medicine clinics reported on form KC60, and information collected through National Enhanced Syphilis Surveillance (NESS). Multinomial regression modelling was used for data analysis. Results: Between 1999 and 2008, 12 021 NESS reports were received, 54% of KC60 reports. The dominant profile of the epidemic was one of white men who have sex with men aged 35-44, often co-infected with HIV, centred in larger cities. During this period, the proportion of primary cases increased over time, while the proportion of secondary cases fell. Primary cases exceeded secondary cases by 2004. The proportion of early latent cases remained relatively stable over time and tended to be lower than that of primary and secondary infection. Patients who attended because they had symptoms of infection, had been identified through partner notification, were HIV positive, and were UK born were more likely to present with primary or secondary infection than with early latent infection. A higher proportion of early latent cases were seen among patients who were Asian, had contacted sexual partners through saunas, bars and the internet, had untraceable partners, and had acquired infection in Manchester. Conclusions: The continuing syphilis epidemic indicates that control has only been partially effective, with ongoing transmission being sustained. Intensive and targeted efforts delivered locally are required to interrupt further transmission. Source

Lale A.S.,University of Cardiff | Temple J.M.F.,Communicable Disease Surveillance Center
Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine | Year: 2016

Objectives: To determine if NHS reforms affect population mortality. Design: Retrospective study using routinely published data. Setting & participants: Resident population of England and Wales 1948 to 2012 Main outcome measure: All cause age sex directly standardised mortality England and Wales 1948 to 2012. Methods: Using the CuSum technique and Change-Point Analysis to identify sustained changes in the improving age-standardised mortality rates for the period 1948-2012, and comparing the time of these changes with periods of NHS reform. Where observed changes did not fit with NHS reform, changes external to the NHS were sought as a possible explanation of changes observed. Results: CuSum plotting and CPA showed no significant changes in female mortality trend between 1948 and 2012. However, this analysis identified a sustained improvement in the male mortality trend, occurring in the mid-1970s. A further change in the rate of male mortality decline was found around the Millennium. Conclusion: The 1974 NHS reorganisation, changing service arrangements predominantly for women and children, is considered an unlikely explanation of the improved rate of male mortality decline. Thus, centrally led NHS reorganisation has never had any detectable effect on either male or female mortality and must be considered ineffective for this purpose. But some evidence supporting the view that increased funding improves outcomes is found. © 2016, © The Royal Society of Medicine. Source

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