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Gruhn A.,TU Hamburg - Harburg | Salecker D.,TU Hamburg - Harburg | Frohle P.,TU Hamburg - Harburg | Schuttrumpf H.,RWTH Aachen | Thorenz F.,Coastal Defence and Nature Conservation Agency NLWKN
Proceedings of the Coastal Engineering Conference | Year: 2012

Low lying coastal areas have always been preferred settlement areas as well as trading and industrial areas. Unfortunately, those areas are strongly endangered by extreme storm surges. In the event of a flood defence failure, protected areas are flooded and damages have to be expected. For the assessment and management of flood risk, the European Union approved the "Directive of the European Parliament and the Council on the assessment and management of flood risk". As one part of a risk and damage analysis the risk of flooding - being the product of failure probability of a certain flood defence and the damages resulting from a failure of this flood defence - has to be determined. One possibility for the assessment of the failure probability is provided by fragility curves. A method for the derivation of fragility curves for flood defence dunes is described. Hence, the applied dune erosion model as well as the method for the derivation of the required input data is explained. Furthermore, first results of the calculation of failure probabilities and fragility curves are presented.


Gruhn A.,TU Hamburg - Harburg | Salecker D.,TU Hamburg - Harburg | Frohle P.,TU Hamburg - Harburg | Schuttrumpf H.,RWTH Aachen | Thorenz F.,Coastal Defence and Nature Conservation Agency NLWKN
6th Chinese-German Joint Symposium on Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, CGJOINT 2012 | Year: 2012

Low lying coastal areas have always been preferred settlement areas as well as trading and industrial areas. Unfortunately, those areas are strongly endangered by extreme storm surges. In the event of a flood defence failure, protected areas are flooded and damages have to be expected. For the assessment and management of flood risk, the European Union approved the "Directive of the European Parliament and the Council on the assessment and management of flood risk". As one part of a risk and damage analysis the risk of flooding - being the product of failure probability of a certain flood defence and the damages resulting from a failure of this flood defence - has to be determined. One possibility for the assessment of the failure probability is provided by fragility curves. A method for the derivation of fragility curves for flood defence dunes is described. Hence, the applied dune erosion model as well as the method for the derivation of the required input data is explained. Furthermore, first results of the calculation of failure probabilities and fragility curves are presented.


Bachmann D.,RWTH Aachen | Grimm C.,RWTH Aachen | Frohle P.,TU Hamburg - Harburg | Thorenz F.,Coastal Defence and Nature Conservation Agency NLWKN | Schuttrumpf H.,RWTH Aachen
6th Chinese-German Joint Symposium on Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, CGJOINT 2012 | Year: 2012

On February 16th 2012 the German public commemorates the 50th anniversary of the North Sea flood of 1962. Over 340 people died and approx. 28,000 apartments or houses were damaged. Since 1962 huge efforts were made and a lot of money was spent on coastal protection measures in northern regions of Germany. Nevertheless, the expected global climate change and the resulting acceleration of sea level rise require a re-evaluation of coastal protection measures and flood risk management strategies for coastal regions. The practical realisation of risk adaption and mitigation is a major task for coastal authorities. The development of methods and computer based tools to support this process is one of the major challenges for research. Therefore, the Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management of RWTH Aachen University developed the software package PROMAIDES. It integrates modules for reliability analysis, hydrodynamic analysis, analysis of consequences as well as the combining risk analysis. This paper focuses on the adaption of the PROMAIDES system for an application to coastal regions. The development process and the verification on selected study sites is part of the HoRisK-project, presented in this paper.


Vennebusch M.,Leibniz University of Hanover | Albert L.,Leibniz University of Hanover | Schon S.,Leibniz University of Hanover | Kube F.,Leibniz University of Hanover | And 4 more authors.
Record - IEEE PLANS, Position Location and Navigation Symposium | Year: 2012

For many water engineering tasks, precise information about the water flow characteristics is required to model discharge and sediment transport. In many cases, the Global Positioning System (GPS) is used to measure floater trajectories and to derive flow velocities indirectly from floater positions. In this paper, we describe a new GPS-based measurement system that avoids the use of expensive equipment and which uses a direct velocity determination approach. Despite its low costs, the new floater system achieves position accuracies of several meters and accuracies of about 5 cm/s for velocities. We describe both hardware and software details of the new system. Results from a first measurement campaign show the system's capabilities for hydrometric applications. © 2012 IEEE.


Singer A.,Senckenberg Institute | Singer A.,University of Bremen | Schuckel U.,Senckenberg Institute | Beck M.,Carl von Ossietzky University | And 12 more authors.
Marine Ecology Progress Series | Year: 2016

We used small-scale species distribution models to predict the past and present spatial distribution of 7 characteristic macrofauna species in response to climatic and environmental changes that have been recorded for the Jade Bay (German Wadden Sea) over the last 4 decades (1970s to 2009). Four presence-absence modelling algorithms (RF, MARS, GLM, GBM) were merged within the ensemble forecasting platform 'biomod2'. The present spatial distribution (representing 2009) was modelled based on statistical relationships between species presences, true species absences and 7 high-resolution (5 m) environmental grids. The past spatial distribution (representing the 1970s) was then hindcast in response to climate change-induced (1) sea-level rise, (2) water temperature increase and (3) seagrass recovery due to de-eutrophication. The past distribution scenario was evaluated using independent historical macrofauna data from the 1970s. Present ensemble prediction maps accurately captured the potential ecological niches of the modelled species throughout Jade Bay (i.e. good to excellent true skill statistic [TSS] and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] evaluation measures). The predicted present macrofauna distribution correlated most significantly with hydrodynamic conditions (submergence time, shear stress) and sediment characteristics (mud content). The past distribution scenario revealed significant changes in small-scale spatial distribution patterns of the characteristic modelled species (1970s to 2009) and showed a very good match with historical macrofauna data. Climate change-induced sea-level rise and its local implications for Jade Bay (changes in topo - graphy, tidal range and submergence time), and water temperature increase explained the potential macrofauna distribution shifts over the last 4 decades. © 2016 Inter-Research.

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