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El Amraoui L.,Meteo - France | Attie J.-L.,Meteo - France | Attie J.-L.,CNRS Laboratory for Aerology | Semane N.,CNRM | And 11 more authors.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Year: 2010

This paper presents a comprehensive characterization of a very deep stratospheric intrusion which occurred over the British Isles on 15 August 2007. The signature of this event is diagnosed using ozonesonde measurements over Lerwick, UK (60.14° N, 1.19° W) and is also well characterized using meteorological analyses from the global operational weather prediction model of Météo- France, ARPEGE. Modelled as well as assimilated fields of both ozone (O 3) and carbon monoxide (CO) have been used in order to better document this event. O 3 and CO from Aura/MLS and Terra/MOPITT instruments, respectively, are assimilated into the three-dimensional chemical transport model MOCAGE of Météo-France using a variational 3-DFGAT (First Guess at Appropriate Time) method. The validation of O 3 and CO assimilated fields is done using selfconsistency diagnostics and by comparison with independent observations such as MOZAIC (O 3 and CO), AIRS (CO) and OMI (O 3). It particularly shows in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere region that the assimilated fields are closer to MOZAIC than the free model run. The O 3 bias between MOZAIC and the analyses is ?11.5 ppbv with a RMS of 22.4 ppbv and a correlation coefficient of 0.93, whereas between MOZAIC and the free model run, the corresponding values are 33 ppbv, 38.5 ppbv and 0.83, respectively. In the same way, for CO, the bias, RMS and correlation coefficient between MOZAIC and the analyses are ?3.16 ppbv, 13 ppbv and 0.79, respectively, whereas between MOZAIC and the free model they are 6.3 ppbv, 16.6 ppbv and 0.71, respectively. The paper also presents a demonstration of the capability of O 3 and CO assimilated fields to better describe a stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) event in comparison with the free run modelled O 3 and CO fields. Although the assimilation of MLS data improves the distribution of O 3 above the tropopause compared to the free model run, it is not sufficient to reproduce the STE event well. Assimilated MOPITT CO allows a better qualitative description of the stratospheric intrusion event. The MOPITT CO analyses appear more promising than the MLS O3 analyses in terms of their ability to capture a deep STE event. Therefore, the results of this study open the perspectives for using MOPITT CO in the STE studies. © 2010 Author(s). Source

Najac J.,European Center for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation | Lac C.,CNRM | Terray L.,European Center for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation
International Journal of Climatology | Year: 2011

A statistical-dynamical downscaling method is presented to estimate 10 m wind speed and direction distributions at high spatial resolutions using a weather type based approach combined with a mesoscale model. Daily 850 hPa wind fields (predictors) from ERA40 reanalysis and daily 10 m wind speeds and directions (predictands) measured at 78 meteorological stations over France are used to build and validate the downscaling algorithm over the period 1974-2002. First of all, the daily 850 hPa wind fields are classified into a large number of wind classes and one day is randomly chosen inside each wind class. Simulations with a non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model are then performed for the selected days over three interactively nested domains over France, with finest horizontal mesh size of 3 km over the Mediterranean area. The initial and coupling fields are derived from the ERA40 reanalysis. Finally, the 10 m wind distributions are reconstructed by weighting each simulation by the corresponding wind class frequency. Evaluation and uncertainty assessment of each step of the procedure is performed. This method is then applied for a climate change impact study: daily 850 hPa wind fields from 14 general circulation models of the CMIP3 multimodel dataset are used to determine evolutions in the frequency of occurrence of the wind classes and to assess the potential evolution of the wind resources in France. Two time periods are focused on: a historical period (1971-2000) from the climate of the twentieth century experiment and a future period (2046-2065) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) experiment. Evolution of the 10 m winds in France and associated uncertainties are discussed. Significant changes are depicted, in particular a decrease of the wind speed in the Mediterranean area. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society. Source

Termonia P.,Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium | Termonia P.,Ghent University | Voitus F.,CNRM | Degrauwe D.,Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium | And 2 more authors.
Monthly Weather Review | Year: 2012

This paper describes the implementation of a proposal of Boyd for the periodization and relaxation of the fields in a full three-dimensional spectral semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian limited-area model structure of an atmospheric modeling system calledHARMONIE that is used for numerical weather prediction and regional climate studies. Some first feasibility tests in an operational numerical weather prediction context are presented. They show that, in terms of standard operational forecast scores, Boyd's windowing-based method provides comparable performance as the old existing spline-based periodization procedure. However, the real improvements of this method should be expected in specific cases of strong dynamical forcings at the lateral boundaries. An extensive demonstration of the superiority of this windowing-based method is provided in an accompanying paper. ©2012 American Meteorological Society. Source

Hamdi R.,Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium | Degrauwe D.,Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium | Duerinckx A.,Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium | Duerinckx A.,Ghent University | And 15 more authors.
Geoscientific Model Development | Year: 2014

The newly developed land surface scheme SURFEX (SURFace EXternalisée) is implemented into a limited-area numerical weather prediction model running operationally in a number of countries of the ALADIN and HIRLAM consortia. The primary question addressed is the ability of SURFEX to be used as a new land surface scheme and thus assessing its potential use in an operational configuration instead of the original ISBA (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere) scheme. The results show that the introduction of SURFEX either shows improvement for or has a neutral impact on the 2 m temperature, 2 m relative humidity and 10 m wind. However, it seems that SURFEX has a tendency to produce higher maximum temperatures at high-elevation stations during winter daytime, which degrades the 2 m temperature scores. In addition, surface radiative and energy fluxes improve compared to observations from the Cabauw tower. The results also show that promising improvements with a demonstrated positive impact on the forecast performance are achieved by introducing the town energy balance (TEB) scheme. It was found that the use of SURFEX has a neutral impact on the precipitation scores. However, the implementation of TEB within SURFEX for a high-resolution run tends to cause rainfall to be locally concentrated, and the total accumulated precipitation obviously decreases during the summer. One of the novel features developed in SURFEX is the availability of a more advanced surface data assimilation using the extended Kalman filter. The results over Belgium show that the forecast scores are similar between the extended Kalman filter and the classical optimal interpolation scheme. Finally, concerning the vertical scores, the introduction of SURFEX either shows improvement for or has a neutral impact in the free atmosphere. Source

Llovel W.,LEGOS OMP | Becker M.,LEGOS OMP | Cazenave A.,LEGOS OMP | Jevrejeva S.,Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory | And 5 more authors.
Global and Planetary Change | Year: 2011

On decadal to multidecadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost unexistent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. Source

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