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Susman E.J.,Pennsylvania State University | Houts R.M.,Duke University | Steinberg L.,Temple University | Belsky J.,Birkbeck, University of London | And 5 more authors.
Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine | Year: 2010

Objectives: To identify ages when adolescents were in sexual maturity stages 2 through 5; to explain the relations between breast (girls), genital (boys), and pubic hair (girls and boys) development between ages 91?2 and 151?2 years; and to evaluate synchrony of pubertal development across characteristics. Design: Annual pubertal assessments. Setting: Ten locations in the United States. Participants: A total of 859 adolescents (427 boys [49.7%] and 432 girls [50.3%]; 737 white [85.8%] and 122 black [14.2%]). Main Outcome Measures: Changes in the 5 stages of breast, genital, and pubic hair development. Results: Girls were in breast maturity stages 2 and 3 earlier than comparable pubic hair stages. Although breast development in girls started earlier than pubic hair development, girls completed breast and pubic hair development at approximately the same age. Black girls were in all stages of breast and pubic hair development earlier than white girls. Boys were in stages 2, 3, 4, and 5 of genital development before the comparable pubic hair stage. In boys, genital development started earlier than pubic hair development, but pubic hair development was completed in less time. Black boys were in genital and pubic hair development about 7 months earlier than white boys. Black and white boys completed genital development in approximately 41?2 years, but black boys took approximately 6 months longer than white boys to complete pubic hair development. At stage 2, for 66.2% of girls, breast development preceded their pubic hair development; for 91.1% of boys, genital development preceded their pubic hair development. Conclusions: The results of this study are useful in understanding normative variation in the timing and change in the development of secondary sexual characteristics at puberty. They will help identify adolescents with atypical changes in sexual maturation and unusual progression of sexual maturation and growth disorders. ©2010 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.

Sarfaty M.,Thomas Jefferson University | Stello B.,Lehigh Valley Health Network and Eastern Pennsylvania Inquiry Collaborative Network | Johnson M.,Lehigh Valley Health Network and Eastern Pennsylvania Inquiry Collaborative Network | Sifri R.,Thomas Jefferson University | And 2 more authors.
American Journal of Medical Quality | Year: 2013

A recent report from a survey of 15 primary care practices revealed considerable variability and much room for improvement in aspects of primary care practice that are associated with increased colorectal cancer screening rates. There was low utilization of patient reminders, tracking of test completion, rescheduling of missed appointments, and inconsistent follow-up of positive stool blood tests. Qualitative data collected in the same study provide insights into how the practices operated. Focus group discussions with the clinicians and staff of the practices and key informant interviews with office managers support the survey findings by shedding light on a lack of office policies and systems. Many practices lacked a systematic way to identify patients who were not up to date on screening while they were visiting the practice, thereby passing up the best opportunity to reach them. These findings are not consistent with the patient-centered medical home model. © 2013 by the American College of Medical Quality.

News Article | June 10, 2015

Political gridlock over climate change has left the US military exposed to Russia’s superior fleets in the Arctic, flooding in its naval bases and a more unstable world, according to high-ranking former military commanders and security advisors. The comments, published on the Weather Channel on Wednesday, echoed president Barack Obama, who recently lambasted climate sceptic politicians for jeopardising global and national security. Sherri Goodman, who served as Bill Clinton’s deputy undersecretary of defence and founded the security analysis firm CNA Corporation, said the US climate debate was “stuck in the past” and that climate change was “acting as a threat multiplier in the Arctic”. The Arctic is the most rapidly warming region on Earth and its sea ice has undergone major declines in recent years and decades. Goodman said the intransigence of US politics had left a technology deficit in the far north - a place where the two increasingly tense powers are separated by just 82km. “Right now we have a fleet, a very small fleet of ageing icebreakers. The Russians and other countries have vastly more ice-breaking capability and other capabilities to be present in the Arctic. We will need to have a greater presence in the Arctic of various types,” she said. “We’re still having debates about whether this is happening, as opposed to what we should do about it,” she said. “We need to guard against the failure of imagination when it comes to climate change. Something is going to happen in the future years, and we’re not going to be prepared.” “Literally, the nation’s defence is at stake,” said rear admiral David Titley, former naval oceanography operations command and a professor of meteorology. “Unfortunately all we have to look at are the events of the day in Crimea and Ukraine and we see that the Russians are making some noises about, ‘well, you know, maybe the Arctic is another place we should compete rather than cooperate’,” he said. Brigadier general Stephen Cheney, CEO of the American Security Project and a foreign affairs advisor to the State Department, said the security concerns extended beyond the Arctic to the very foundation of US military power - its naval bases. “I can start here in the continental United States where we’ve got 30 naval bases both here and overseas. Naval bases by the nature of course are on the coast. Coasts are threatened as the sea level rises, and I can give you two very prominent examples, the Naval Air Station in Norfolk, Virginia, for instance. Eglin Air Force base in Florida, another one, has already flooded in this past year when they had to shut it down for the first time in its history,” he said. But he said the concerns were not limited to the US’s ability to defend itself. Climate change was already causing wars around the world. He gave the example of Tuareg farmers in Mali, displaced by drought and radicalised by conflict, who have destabilised the west African country. “We know climate change caused this,” he said. It was important, said Cheney, that the military recognised its own contribution as the largest polluter in the world’s second highest polluting country. Weaning the defence force off fossil fuels is an active policy that would solve a security and supply problem as well as bring down carbon emissions. “Many conflicts throughout our history have been based on resource competition,” said General Charles Jacoby, who was the commander of the US North Command - the primary line of defence against invasion for the US mainland - until last year. He said that this competition would only intensify in the future, with energy and water supply at the top of the list. Jacoby said climate change was a “legitimate mission that we readily embrace”. He said the military had to be pragmatic and the politicking around climate change, on which the Republican party has grown increasingly extreme, was ultimately irrelevant. “It can be considered a politicised issue. And it can be considered something that one party is more interested in, another party less interested in. I’m a soldier. I’m a requirements guy. I’m a mission accomplishment guy. And so for me, it’s be in favor of what’s happening. And so, I deal with the facts. Whatever the cause, is less relevant to me than the effect,” he said. On Tuesday the Guardian revealed US conservatives had directed $125m toward groups in an effort to seed doubt over the existence of global warming and derail the Obama administration’s climate policies. The Weather Channel also interviewed leading Republicans, who bemoaned the party’s obstructionism. Christine Todd Whitman, a Republican who governed New Jersey and served as director of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under George W Bush, said the Republican stance on climate change was “frustrating and puzzling” citing the GOP’s history of environmental stewardship. “It was Richard Nixon who established the Environmental Protection Agencies. I mean, it’s ours. It’s our issue. It’s conservation. It’s conservative. This is an issue we should be talking about in a rational way. Let’s not politicise it, let’s not demand that everybody be absolutely for or absolutely against climate change,” she said. Henry Paulson, Bush’s treasury secretary, appeared to disagree with Whitman’s assessment of the Republican attitude to climate change. “I think that there are plenty of Republicans that understand that this is a huge problem and we need to deal with it. And there are plenty of Democrats that don’t want to deal with it,” he said. This is despite just five Senate Republicans voting for a measure to recognise the significant contribution of humans to climate change - the bill was defeated. The EPA’s director under the first president Bush, William Reilly, said he was also bemused by his party’s undermining of climate action. But he said he was hopeful of change. “Young people of all stripes including young Republicans are very supportive of both acknowledging that we have a climate problem and humans are contributing to it,” he said.

Flierl G.R.,Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Woods N.W.,CNA Corporation
Journal of Statistical Physics | Year: 2014

Dense copepod aggregations form in Massachusetts Bay and provide an important resource for right whales. We re-examine the processes which might account for the high concentrations, investigating both horizontally convergent flow, which can increase the density of depth-keeping organisms, and social behavior. We argue that the two act in concert: social behavior creates small dense patches (on the scale of a few sensing radii); physical stirring brings them together so that they merge into aggregations with larger scales; it also moves them into areas of physical convergence which retain the increasingly large patch. But the turbulence can also break this apart, suggesting that the overall high density in the convergence zone will not be uniform but will instead be composed of multiple transient patches (which are still much larger than the sensing scale). © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Hanson L.S.,Tufts University | Hanson L.S.,CNA Corporation | Vogel R.M.,Tufts University
Environmental Research Letters | Year: 2014

Sizing storage for rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems is often a difficult design consideration, as the system must be designed specifically for the local rainfall pattern. We introduce a generally applicable method for estimating the required storage by using regional regression equations to account for climatic differences in the behavior of RWH systems across the entire continental United States. A series of simulations for 231 locations with continuous daily precipitation records enable the development of storage-reliability-yield (SRY) relations at four useful reliabilities, 0.8, 0.9, 0.95, and 0.98. Multivariate, log-linear regression results in storage equations that include demand, collection area and local precipitation statistics. The continental regression equations demonstrated excellent goodness-of-fit (R2 0.96-0.99) using only two precipitation parameters, and fits improved when three geographic regions with more homogeneous rainfall characteristics were considered. The SRY models can be used to obtain a preliminary estimate of how large to build a storage tank almost anywhere in the United States based on desired yield and reliability, collection area, and local rainfall statistics. Our methodology could be extended to other regions of world, and the equations presented herein could be used to investigate how RWH systems would respond to changes in climatic variability. The resulting model may also prove useful in regional planning studies to evaluate the net benefits which result from the broad use of RWH to meet water supply requirements. We outline numerous other possible extensions to our work, which when taken together, illustrate the value of our initial generalized SRY model for RWH systems. © 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Newby J.J.,Purdue University | Legg M.A.,CNA Corporation | Rogers B.,Purdue University | Wirth M.J.,Purdue University
Journal of Chromatography A | Year: 2011

Non-porous, colloidal silica particles were annealed at three different temperatures, 800, 900 and 1050 °C. The adsorption of lysozyme, a probe of surface roughness, was consistent with progressively reduced surface roughness as temperature increased. The heat treated silica particles were rehydroxylated and then used to pack UHPLC columns. The cationic protein lysozyme was used to probe silanol activity, which exhibited progressively less tailing as the annealing temperature increased. FTIR spectroscopy confirmed that the abundance of isolated silanols on the surface was reduced by annealing at 900 °C or 1050 °C. FTIR also revealed that there was markedly increased hydrogen bonding of the isolated silanols to neighbors after rehydroxylation. These results combine to support the hypothesis that (a) isolated silanols on silica cause tailing in RP-LC and (b) nonplanar topography gives rise to isolated silanols. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

King M.D.,CNA Corporation
NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security | Year: 2012

The first section of the paper presents key findings from the 2007 report, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change by the CNA Corporation, including that projected climate change: (1) Poses a serious threat to U.S. National Security; (2) Acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions in the world and; (3) Adds tensions even in stable regions of the world. In the second section I summarize work conducted by myself and Dr. Ralph Espach at CNA that identifies exactly which countries are most relevant to the CNA Military Advisory Board's original findings. By compiling data from a variety of sources, we identify the states most exposed to the impacts of climate change both in the short and long term. The next section introduces estimates of the resilience of these countries, and combines our evaluation of country exposure and expected resilience to create a 3-tiered ranking of countries most vulnerable to political and/or humanitarian crises as a result of climate impacts. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012.

McCue B.,CNA Corporation
Military Operations Research | Year: 2012

A companion piece, which appeared in MORS's Phalanx (McCue 2010), describes some of the work of the early mathematical ecologist G.R Gause in combat-modeling terms-not a great leap, inasmuch as Gause's work addressed competition between species. This paper expands upon the work of Gause, re-addressing one of his analyses in probabilistic form-a key step whose necessity he identified, but did not carry out-and goes on to draw some lessons for military operations research.

Greene M.,CNA Corporation
2014 IEEE Conference on Norbert Wiener in the 21st Century: Driving Technology's Future, 21CW 2014 - Incorporating the Proceedings of the 2014 North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society Conference, NAFIPS 2014, Conference Proceedings | Year: 2014

In Cybernetics, Norbert Wiener presents his thoughts on self-organizing systems as they react and adapt to their environment. In his chapter on Information, Language, and Society, he points out the 'well-known tendency of libraries to become clogged by their own volume' and notes the limitations of classification schemes, largely because of the problem of integrating new subject matter into a predetermined classification code. This paper introduces a self-organizing system that builds on Norbert Wiener's thoughts. It addresses the problem of information overload we are all currently experiencing in 'big data' environments. Analyses of command information flows during military crises have suggested an approach to ontogenetic learning that avoids both the problem of describing the subject covered in a document and the problem of integrating new subject matter into a predetermined classification code. 'Reference-connected sets' are constructed from message traffic dealing with a crisis and have been found to uniquely identify operational events during the crisis. Such sets (and subsets if further refinement is desired} can be obtained in real-time and a method is demonstrated that automatically classifies messages as they enter the system. The system thus focuses on the evolution of subjects as represented by referenced documents upon which any 'new' information is based, in a manner similar to Norbert Wiener's 'emergent behavior'. The paper then develops measures of effectiveness and shows how reference-connected sets can be used in filtering and organizing information in both hierarchical and non-hierarchical organizations across local, national, and international boundaries. © 2014 IEEE.

Greene M.,CNA Corporation
2014 IEEE Conference on Norbert Wiener in the 21st Century: Driving Technology's Future, 21CW 2014 - Incorporating the Proceedings of the 2014 North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society Conference, NAFIPS 2014, Conference Proceedings | Year: 2014

Attempts to avoid 'massive noise' in large data sets associated with social networks have moved away from technical approaches that attempt to filter or classify social network data into meaningful elements through key words or other classification schemes. Rather, new approaches have an increased emphasis on communication flows between people in order to determine situational awareness. This paper summarizes recent innovative projects that stress agents (individuals) interacting with each other to generate an emergent and evolving social network. The projects build on Norbert Wiener's concept of 'emergent behavior' and show how it is applied to communications between individuals reporting on emerging biological diseases. Socio-technical analyses have concluded that the lack of feedback explains why Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) was widely transmitted. A proactive approach to disease detection using feedback loops is introduced to help the Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) detection community communicate in a social network dedicated to the prevention of pandemics. This network does not depend on predetermined categories of information. Rather, it tracks a pandemic as it evolves in such a way that 'digital pheromones' help to prevent the risk of wide transmission in a changing socio-ecological world. © 2014 IEEE.

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