Climate Service Center Germany
Climate Service Center Germany
Jerez S.,University of Murcia |
Tobin I.,CEA Saclay Nuclear Research Center |
Vautard R.,CEA Saclay Nuclear Research Center |
Montavez J.P.,University of Murcia |
And 12 more authors.
Nature Communications | Year: 2015
Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (â'14%;+2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector.
Casanueva A.,University of Cantabria |
Kotlarski S.,ETH Zurich |
Herrera S.,University of Cantabria |
Fernandez J.,University of Cantabria |
And 11 more authors.
Climate Dynamics | Year: 2015
Daily precipitation statistics as simulated by the ERA-Interim-driven EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) ensemble are evaluated over two distinct regions of the European continent, namely the European Alps and Spain. The potential added value of the high-resolution 12 km experiments with respect to their 50 km resolution counterparts is investigated. The statistics considered consist of wet-day intensity and precipitation frequency as a measure of mean precipitation, and three precipitation-derived indicators (90th percentile on wet days—90pWET, contribution of the very wet days to total precipitation—R95pTOT and number of consecutive dry days—CDD). As reference for model evaluation high resolution gridded observational data over continental Spain (Spain011/044) and the Alpine region (EURO4M-APGD) are used. The assessment and comparison of the two resolutions is accomplished not only on their original horizontal grids (approximately 12 and 50 km), but the high-resolution RCMs are additionally regridded onto the coarse 50 km grid by grid cell aggregation for the direct comparison with the low resolution simulations. The direct application of RCMs e.g. in many impact modelling studies is hampered by model biases. Therefore bias correction (BC) techniques are needed at both resolutions to ensure a better agreement between models and observations. In this work, the added value of the high resolution (before and after the bias correction) is assessed and the suitability of these BC methods is also discussed. Three basic BC methods are applied to isolate the effect of biases in mean precipitation, wet-day intensity and wet-day frequency on the derived indicators. Daily precipitation percentiles are strongly affected by biases in the wet-day intensity, whereas the dry spells are better represented when the simulated precipitation frequency is adjusted to the observed one. This confirms that there is no single optimal way to correct for RCM biases, since correcting some distributional features typically leads to an improvement of some aspects but to a deterioration of others. Regarding mean seasonal biases before the BC, we find only limited evidence for an added value of the higher resolution in the precipitation intensity and frequency or in the derived indicators. Thereby, evaluation results considerably depend on the RCM, season and indicator considered. High resolution simulations better reproduce the indicators’ spatial patterns, especially in terms of spatial correlation. However, this improvement is not statistically significant after applying specific BC methods. © 2015 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
Cremades R.,Climate Service Center Germany |
Cremades R.,University of Hamburg |
Rothausen S.G.S.A.,Copenhagen University |
Conway D.,The London School of Economics and Political Science |
And 3 more authors.
Environmental Research Letters | Year: 2016
There are strong interdependencies between water use in agriculture and energy consumption as water saving technologies can require increased pumping and pressurizing. The Chinese Government includes water efficiency improvement and carbon intensity reduction targets in the 12th Five-Year Plan (5YP. 2011-2015), yet the links between energy use and irrigation modernization are not always addressed in policy targets. Here we build an original model of the energy embedded in water pumping for irrigated agriculture and its related processes. The model is based on the physical processes of irrigation schemes and the implication of technological developments, comprising all processes from extraction and conveyance of water to its application in the field. The model uses data from government sources to assess policy targets for deployment of irrigation technologies, which aim to reduce water application and contribute to adaptation of Chinese agriculture to climate change. The consequences of policy targets involve co-beneficial outcomes that achieve water and energy savings, or trade-offs in which reduced water application leads to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We analyze irrigation efficiency and energy use in four significant provinces and nationally, using scenarios based on the targets of the 12th 5YP. At the national scale, we find that expansion of sprinklers and micro-irrigation as outlined in the 5YP would increase GHG emissions from agricultural water use, however, emissions decrease in those provinces with predominant groundwater use and planned expansion of low-pressure pipes. We show that the most costly technologies relate to trade-offs, while co-benefits are generally achieved with less expensive technologies. The investment cost per area of irrigation technology expansion does not greatly affect the outcome in terms of water, but in terms of energy the most expensive technologies are more energy-intensive and produce more emissions. The results show that water supply configuration (proportion of surface to groundwater) largely determines the potential energy savings from reductions in water application. The paper examines the importance of fertigation and highlights briefly some policy implications. © 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.