China Institute of Policy and Management

Beijing, China

China Institute of Policy and Management

Beijing, China
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Li J.,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences | Bao C.,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences | Wu D.,China Institute of Policy and Management
Risk Analysis | Year: 2017

Risk matrices have been widely used as a risk evaluation tool in many fields due to their simplicity and intuitive nature. Designing a rating scheme, i.e., determining the number of ratings used in a risk matrix and assigning different ratings to different cells, is an essential part of risk matrix construction. However, most of the related literature has focused on applying a risk matrix to various fields, instead of researching how to design risk matrices. Based on the analysis of several current rules, we propose a new approach, namely, the sequential updating approach (SUA), to design the rating scheme of a risk matrix in a reliable way. In this article, we propose three principles and a rating algorithm based on these principles. The three principles, namely, adjusted weak consistency, consistent internality, and continuous screening, characterize a good rating scheme. The resulting rating scheme has been proven to be unique. A global rating algorithm is then proposed to create the design that satisfies the three principles. We then explore the performance of the SUA. An illustrative application is first given to explain the feasibility of our approach. The sensitivity analysis shows that our method captures a resolution-reliability tradeofffor decisionmakers in choosing an appropriate rating scheme for a risk matrix. Finally, we compare the designs based on the SUA and Cox's axioms, highlighting the advantages of the SUA. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Zhou Z.,Tongji University | Fang Y.,City University of Hong Kong | Vogel D.,City University of Hong Kong | Jin X.-L.,Shanghai University | Zhang X.,China Institute of Policy and Management
Journal of Management Information Systems | Year: 2012

Internet-based social virtual world (SVW) services have aroused extensive interest among academicians and practitioners. The success of SVW services depends heavily on customers' continuance usage, a topic not yet adequately investigated in information systems research. It is unclear to what extent, and how, the existing theories can be extended to explain the continuance usage of such services. In consideration of the distinctive features of these services, this study adapts the dedication-constraint framework of commitment and develops a model of SVW continuance, which is assessed empirically using data collected from 438 experienced users of Second Life, a typical SVW service. Results indicate that SVW customers' continuance intention is jointly determined by two mechanisms: affective commitment (being attracted to) and calculative commitment (being locked in), with the former playing a more central role. Perceived utilitarian value, hedonic value, and relational capital promote affective commitment directly and indirectly through satisfaction, while service-specific investments in personalization and relational capital increase calculative commitment. Theoretical and practical implications and future research directions are subsequently discussed. © 2012 M.E. Sharpe, Inc. All rights reserved.

Zhang X.,China Institute of Policy and Management | De Pablos P.O.,University of Oviedo | Zhang Y.,Beijing Institute of Technology
International Journal of Engineering Education | Year: 2012

Knowledge contribution is a very important issue in online engineering education. This study investigates how to encourage knowledge contribution in a large Asia online engineering education project. Based on long-term empirical research, we found economic incentive is more critical to facilitate explicit knowledge contribution, while social incentive is more important in encouraging tacit knowledge contribution. Moreover, we also found incentives may have different effects due to students' individual difference, e.g., personal value. That is, economic incentive may have positive effect on some students, but none or negative to others. These findings provides some theoretical contributions on e-learning and knowledge management, and also provides some implications for choosing technology in online engineering education system, and designing incentive mechanism. © 2012 TEMPUS Publications.

Zhang X.,Tianjin University | Ma H.,Capital University of Economics and Business | Wu Y.,Beijing Jiaotong University | De Pablos P.O.,University of Oviedo | Wang W.,China Institute of Policy and Management
International Journal of Engineering Education | Year: 2014

The cloud computing (CC) is an important emerging information technology for the information resource optimizing. In this case study, we applied CC technology in the quality engineering education platform design process, and investigated the effects of CCon saving resources, optimizing process, and education innovations. First, we described the designing and applying process of CC education platform. Then, we designed a measuring software aided method on evaluating quality of CC application. Finally, a standard was applied to evaluate university laboratory's management abilityon CC platform. By applying cloud computing technology in quality engineering courses, and providing evaluating method, this research has both teaching and research implications for engineering education, like teaching students how to management cloud computing platform with "learn by doing" model. © 2014 TEMPUS Publications.

Yu L.,Beijing University of Chemical Technology | Zhao Y.,China Institute of Policy and Management | Tang L.,Beijing University of Chemical Technology
Journal of Forecasting | Year: 2016

Based on the concept of 'decomposition and ensemble', a novel ensemble forecasting approach is proposed for complex time series by coupling sparse representation (SR) and feedforward neural network (FNN), i.e. the SR-based FNN approach. Three main steps are involved: data decomposition via SR, individual forecasting via FNN and ensemble forecasting via a simple addition method. In particular, to capture various coexisting hidden factors, the effective decomposition tool of SR with its unique virtues of flexibility and generalization is introduced to formulate an overcomplete dictionary covering diverse bases, e.g. exponential basis for main trend, Fourier basis for cyclical (and seasonal) features and wavelet basis for transient actions, different from other techniques with a single basis. Using crude oil price (a typical complex time series) as sample data, the empirical study statistically confirms the superiority of the SR-based FNN method over some other popular forecasting models and similar ensemble models (with other decomposition tools). © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

PubMed | California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, Peoples Hospital of Pengzhou, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China and China Institute of Policy and Management
Type: | Journal: Ophthalmic genetics | Year: 2017

To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the association of Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) polymorphism rs6214 with high myopia through a systematic review and meta-analysis of candidate genetic association study.All case-control association studies on IGF1 and high myopia reported up to 15 June 2016 in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Chinese Biomedical Database were retrieved. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated for single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) using fixed and random effects models according to between study heterogeneity. Publication bias analyses were conducted using Beggs test.A total of eight studies from published articles were included in our analysis. The meta-analyses for IGF1 rs6214, composed of 4242 high myopia patients and 4430 controls, showed low heterogeneity for the included populations in all the genetic models, except that of the allelic genetic model in the pooled populations. The analyses of all the genetic models in Chinese, Japanese, and overall pooled populations did not identify any significant association between high myopia and IGF1 rs6214.This meta-analysis showed there was no association detected between IGF1 rs6214 and high myopia. Given the limited sample size, further investigations including more ethnic groups are required to validate the association.

Zhang X.,China Institute of Policy and Management | De Pablos P.O.,University of Oviedo | Zhu H.,Capital University of Economics and Business
International Journal of Engineering Education | Year: 2012

3Dvirtual world has been widely applied in e-learning project, as its several advantages like3Davatar, rich communication channels. This study focuses on a case of famous virtual world (i.e., Second Life, SL) application in on-line engineering education project. Based on the theory of IT capabilities, we investigated how SL provides value for on-line team as improving their knowledge work outcome. The findings suggested that SL may influence team leaning from two levels. First, at individual level, SL generally positive related to the individual knowledge work, including coding language skills, and personal creativity. Second, at team level, SL positively influence the team learning, by providing rich social resources, social networks, and efficient team dynamics. However, SL also has some disadvantages which may disturb the team learning, like advertising information's, gambling, and sex. We suggest the project must provide some rules to limit students to access information's unrelated to class objectives. © 2012 TEMPUS Publications.

Li Y.,China Institute of Policy and Management | Li Y.,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences | Zhu L.,China Institute of Policy and Management
Applied Energy | Year: 2014

This paper estimated the cost curve of energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction in China's iron and steel sector. Forty-one energy saving technologies which are widely used or popularized are selected, their investments, operation costs, energy savings and CO2 abatement are collected and the data in 2010 are taken as a baseline. Then energy conservation supply curve and CO2 conservation supply curve under two different discount rates are calculated in the paper. These 41 technologies result in a saving contribution of 4.63GJ/t and a CO2 abatement contribution of 443.21kg/t. Cost-effectiveness of technologies was analyzed based on the fuel price and an estimated CO2 price. When comparing the result with the promoted technologies during the 12th five-year-plan, we found that some promoted technologies are not cost-effective in current situation. Three scenarios are set through changing the diffusion rate of technologies and the share of BOF and EAF, based on this energy saving potentials of technologies in 2020 and 2030 are forecasted. At the same time, we compared the change of the CSC depending on the year and the energy saving potentials in three scenarios of 2020 and 2030, respectively. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Shaikh F.,China Institute of Policy and Management | Shaikh F.,Mehran University of Engineering and Technology | Ji Q.,China Institute of Policy and Management
International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems | Year: 2016

Natural gas has increasingly appeared as an important policy choice for China's government to modify high carbon energy consumption structure and deal with environmental problems. This study is aimed to develop the logistic and logistic-population model based approach to forecast the medium- (2020) to long- (2035) term natural gas demand in China. The adopted modelling approach is relatively simple, compared with other forecasting approaches. In order to further improve the forecasting precision, the Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm (LMA) has been implemented to estimate the parameters of the logistic model. The forecasting results show that China's natural gas demand will reach 330-370 billion m3 in the medium-term and 500-590 billion m3 in the long-term. Moreover, the forecasting results of this study were found close in studies conducted by the national and international institutions and scholars. The growing natural gas demand will cause significant increase in import requirements and will increase China's natural gas import dependency. The outcomes of this study are expected to assist the energy planners and policy makers to chalk out relevant natural gas supply and demand side management policies. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

Wang N.N.,China Institute of Policy and Management | Chen R.,China Institute of Policy and Management
Applied Mechanics and Materials | Year: 2014

This paper concentrates on the gridding urban management (GUM). In the background of the rapid development of the process of urbanization and urban-scale, based on computer grid technology and space grid technology, Integrated Gridding Urban Management (IGUM) of the modern city is established, which included city management, economic management and social management into the areas of urban grid system. This model manages to further enrich the contents of the urban grid management. Furthermore, Knowledge-based gridding urban management (KGUM) mode is put up for the future of the smart-sensor city to realize real-time dynamic and intelligent city management. © (2014) Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland.

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