Sabelli H.,Chicago Center for Creative Development
Open Cybernetics and Systemics Journal | Year: 2011
This article presents empirical evidence for the creativity of social processes, as contrasted to both deterministic and random models of biological and economic phenomena. New methods for the analysis of empirical data indicate that population changes, financial data and other socioeconomic time series display non-periodic, apparently irregular patterns that evolve in time (temporal complexity), increase in diversity (diversification), and repeat less frequently than randomized copies of the data (novelty). Recurrence and autocorrelation measures indicate that these patterns are generated causally, not randomly. These measurements demonstrating causality and creativity in economic, social, and population processes indicate a non-stationary chaotic pattern (Bios) and suggest an alternative to current models that postulate either causal determinism or random change. Causal and creative chaotic patterns (Bios) are also observed in fundamental natural and human processes (quantum processes, cosmological expansion in the distribution of galaxies and quasars, animal populations, and heart and respiratory rates). Mathematical models show that Bios patterns are generated by equations that combine recurring change (recursion), bipolar opposition (e.g. sine functions) and conservation. Consumption and production (demand and supply) are obvious factors accounting for the generation of Bios in economic processes. Generations, sex, nations, races and classes are fundamental oppositions in social processes that may explain the generation of Bios. The extreme sensitivity of Bios to initial conditions' (external inputs) indicates the possibility of modifying the course of social processes, and the need to develop flexible methods rather than planning economic development. To develop such methods, and based on the empirical results here reported, this article articulates a new theory of social organization and change that advances three principles: (1) action (flow of energy in unidirectional time) as the one and only component of both processes and ideas; (2) opposition, both synergic and conflictual, as present in, and organizing, all physical, biological and mental processes; and (3) priority to nature and supremacy to persons as an unavoidable reality and a desirable pattern of action. © Hector Sabelli; Licensee Bentham Open.
Sabelli H.,Chicago Center for Creative Development |
Kovacevic L.,Chicago Center for Creative Development
Kybernetes | Year: 2011
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the possibility of biotic patterns. In economics, markets are thought to tend to equilibrium with random and unpredictable deviations. However, an explosion of empirical work searching for possible chaos show an enormous amount of unexplained nonlinear structure. These observations led the authors to examine the possibility of biotic patterns in economics. Design/methodology/approach: Bios is defined as a causally generated creative process. It is the causal counterpart to random walk, just as chaos is the causal equivalent to randomness. Economic data consisting of time series from several categories, including banking, employment and population, and gross domestic product and components, were studied for diversification, recurrence, and predictability patterns characteristic of bios. Diversification was quantified as increased variance with embedding, recurrences were measured using newly developed computer programs, and predictability was measured with a nonlinear prediction method. Findings: Dynamic analyses of the data show: episodic patterning and asymmetric statistical distribution, typical of bios; increase in variance with embedding (diversification), less recurrence than shuffled copies of the data (novelty), demonstrating creativity; consecutive recurrence; and patterning in the series of differences, indicating non-random causation. Originality/value: The demonstration of bios in empirical data indicates that the economy is non-stationary, causal, and creative. This contradicts the notion that markets regulate themselves and tend to equilibrium, and the characterization of market variation as random or chaotic. Further economic crises may be avoided by acknowledging that financial markets are not bound within limits and can be modified into new forms by human action. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
Sabelli H.,Chicago Center for Creative Development |
Lawandow A.,Chicago Center for Creative Development |
Kopra A.R.,Chicago Center for Creative Development
Symmetry | Year: 2010
Asymmetry and symmetry coexist in natural and human processes. The vital role of symmetry in art has been well demonstrated. This article highlights the complementary role of asymmetry. Further we show that the interaction of asymmetric action (recursion) and symmetric opposition (sinusoidal waves) are instrumental in generating creative features (relatively low entropy, temporal complexity, novelty (less recurrence in the data than in randomized copies and complex frequency composition). These features define Bios, a pattern found in musical compositions and in poetry, except for recurrence instead of novelty. Bios is a common pattern in many natural and human processes (quantum processes, the expansion of the universe, gravitational waves, cosmic microwave background radiation, DNA, physiological processes, animal and human populations, and economic time series). The reduction in entropy is significant, as it reveals creativity and contradicts the standard claim of unavoidable decay towards disorder. Artistic creations capture fundamental features of the world. © 2010 by the authors.