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Villani V.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC REMHI | Rianna G.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC REMHI | Mercogliano P.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC REMHI | Mercogliano P.,Italian Aerospace Research Center | And 2 more authors.
Electronic Journal of Geotechnical Engineering | Year: 2015

To properly evaluate weather variables regulating the occurrence of geo-hydrological hazards, the current constraints of climate models imply the need of adopting statistical approaches in cascade to GCM/RCM for the assessment of the potential variations associated to climate changes. Since, in recent years, several approaches, often freely available, have been proposed and applied to investigate various hazards in different geographical areas and geomorphological contexts, a deeper understanding about their performances and constraints is crucial; in the work, it is carried out focusing the attention on two kind of approaches widely adopted in impact studies: bias correction methods(in particular, quantile mapping tools) and weather generators. Both methodology have been applied to outputs of an high resolution RCM simulation carried out on Italian territory for analyzing two very localized (and then challenging) landslide case studies. Beyond an assessment about relative performances in reproducing weather variables on the areas, the goal concerns an increasing awareness about how these approaches could affect the climate signal, physically detected by RCM, not only in outputs weather variables but also in derived components of soil surface budgets strictly governing the occurrence of landslide phenomena. © 2015 ejge.


Vezzoli R.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC REMHI | Mercogliano P.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC REMHI | Mercogliano P.,Italian Aerospace Research Center | Pecora S.,ARPA Emilia Romagna | And 3 more authors.
Science of the Total Environment | Year: 2015

The impacts of climate change on Po River discharges are investigated through a set of climate, hydrological, water-balance simulations continuous in space and time. Precipitation and 2. m mean temperature fields from climate projections under two different representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, have been used to drive the hydrological model. Climate projections are obtained nesting the regional climate model COSMO-CLM into the global climate model CMCC-CM. The bias in climate projections is corrected applying the distribution derived quantile mapping. The persistence of climate signal in precipitation and temperature after the bias correction is assessed in terms of climate anomaly for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods versus 1982-2011. To account for the overall uncertainty of emission scenarios, climate models and bias correction, the hydrological/water balance simulations are carried out using both raw and bias corrected climate datasets. Results show that under both RCPs, either considering raw and bias corrected climate datasets, temperature is expected to increase on the whole Po River basin and in all the seasons; the most significant changes in precipitation and discharges occur in summer, when the reduction of precipitation leads to an increase in low flow duration and occurrence likelihood, and in autumn and winter where precipitation shows a positive variation increasing the high flows frequency. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.


PubMed | Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC REMHI and ARPA Emilia Romagna
Type: | Journal: The Science of the total environment | Year: 2015

The impacts of climate change on Po River discharges are investigated through a set of climate, hydrological, water-balance simulations continuous in space and time. Precipitation and 2m mean temperature fields from climate projections under two different representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, have been used to drive the hydrological model. Climate projections are obtained nesting the regional climate model COSMO-CLM into the global climate model CMCC-CM. The bias in climate projections is corrected applying the distribution derived quantile mapping. The persistence of climate signal in precipitation and temperature after the bias correction is assessed in terms of climate anomaly for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods versus 1982-2011. To account for the overall uncertainty of emission scenarios, climate models and bias correction, the hydrological/water balance simulations are carried out using both raw and bias corrected climate datasets. Results show that under both RCPs, either considering raw and bias corrected climate datasets, temperature is expected to increase on the whole Po River basin and in all the seasons; the most significant changes in precipitation and discharges occur in summer, when the reduction of precipitation leads to an increase in low flow duration and occurrence likelihood, and in autumn and winter where precipitation shows a positive variation increasing the high flows frequency.

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