Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC

Bologna, Italy

Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC

Bologna, Italy
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Luderer G.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | Pietzcker R.C.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | Carrara S.,Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei | Carrara S.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC | And 5 more authors.
Energy Economics | Year: 2017

This preface introduces the special section on the assessment of wind and solar in global low-carbon energy scenarios. The special section documents the results of a coordinated research effort to improve the representation of variable renewable energies (VRE), including wind and solar power, in Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and presents an overview of the results obtained in the underlying coordinated model inter-comparison exercise. © 2017 Elsevier B.V.

Perez-Blanco C.D.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC | Perez-Blanco C.D.,Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei | Gutierrez-Martin C.,University of Cordoba, Spain
Agricultural Water Management | Year: 2017

The realization of buyback welfare enhancing opportunities is conditioned to the ability of government agencies to place bids consistent with the shadow price of irrigators. However, methods used to inform buyback programmes to date either rely on ex-post trading data that is not readily available in most regions worldwide; or compensate projected foregone income, and thus ignore the effects that buyback may have on other relevant attributes determining utility. This paper uses revealed preference methods to elicit the parameters of a multi-attribute objective function that mimics the observed behavior of irrigators in the overexploited Segura River Basin in SE Spain. Objective functions are used in a series of simulations in which water allocation is progressively constrained to ex-ante reveal the shadow price of water using two alternative compensation measures: i) the foregone income, a proxy of the shadow price typically used in the literature; and ii) the compensating variation that addresses foregone utility. Results show a relevant gap between the two methods For example, restoring the balance in the basin through purchase tenders would demand an investment of million 2400+ EUR (9.6+ EUR m−3) attending to the foregone income method, and million 950+ EUR (3.8+ EUR m−3) (−60.3%) with the foregone utility method. © 2017

Gomez C.M.,University of Alcalá | Perez-Blanco C.D.,Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei | Perez-Blanco C.D.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC
Water Resources Management | Year: 2014

Greening the economy is mostly about improving water governance and not only about putting the existing resource saving technical alternatives into practice. Focusing on the second and forgetting the first risks finishing with a highly efficient use of water services at the level of each individual user but with an unsustainable amount of water use for the entire economy. This might be happening already in many places with the modernization of irrigated agriculture, the world’s largest water user and the one offering the most promising water saving opportunities. In spite of high expectations, modern irrigation techniques seem not to be contributing to reduce water scarcity and increase drought resiliency. In fact, according to the little evidence available, in some areas they are resulting in higher water use. Building on basic economic principles this study aims to show the conditions under which this apparently paradoxical outcome, known as the Jevons’ Paradox, might appear. This basic model is expected to serve as guidance for assessing the actual outcomes of increasing irrigation efficiency and to discuss the changes in water governance that would be required for this to make a real contribution to sustainable water management. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014.

Drouet L.,Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei | Drouet L.,Centro Euro mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC | Bosetti V.,Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei | Bosetti V.,Centro Euro mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC | And 4 more authors.
Nature Climate Change | Year: 2015

Strategies for dealing with climate change must incorporate and quantify all the relevant uncertainties, and be designed to manage the resulting risks. Here we employ the best available knowledge so far, summarized by the three working groups of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5; refs), to quantify the uncertainty of mitigation costs, climate change dynamics, and economic damage for alternative carbon budgets. We rank climate policies according to different decision-making criteria concerning uncertainty, risk aversion and intertemporal preferences. Our findings show that preferences over uncertainties are as important as the choice of the widely discussed time discount factor. Climate policies consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels are compatible with a subset of decision-making criteria and some model parametrizations, but not with the commonly adopted expected utility framework. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited.

Davini P.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC | Davini P.,University of Venice | Davini P.,CNR Institute of atmospheric Sciences and Climate | Cagnazzo C.,CNR Institute of atmospheric Sciences and Climate | And 6 more authors.
Climate Dynamics | Year: 2014

The relationship between atmospheric blocking over Europe and the Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream is investigated in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and in a climate model. This is carried out using a bidimensional blocking index based on geopotential height and a diagnostic providing daily latitudinal position and strength of the jet stream. It is shown that European Blocking (EB) is not decoupled from the jet stream but it is mainly associated with its poleward displacements. Moreover, the whole blocking area placed on the equatorward side of the jet stream, broadly ranging from Azores up to Scandinavia, emerges as associated with poleward jet displacements. The diagnostics are hence applied to two different climate model simulations in order to evaluate the biases in the jet stream and in the blocking representation. This analysis highlights large underestimation of EB, typical feature of general circulation models. Interestingly, observed blocking and jet biases over the Euro-Atlantic area are consistent with the blocking-jet relationship observed in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. Finally, the importance of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is investigated showing that realistic SSTs can reduce the bias in the jet stream variability but not in the frequency of EB. We conclude highlighting that blocking-related diagnostics can provide more information about the Euro-Atlantic variability than diagnostics simply based on the Atlantic jet stream. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Parrado R.,Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei | Parrado R.,Centro Euro mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC | Parrado R.,University of Venice | De Cian E.,Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei | De Cian E.,Centro Euro mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC
Energy Economics | Year: 2014

This paper uses a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the intertemporal and spatial dimension of technology spillovers embodied in international trade. Three are the main contributions of the study. First, link capital- and energy-productivity to machinery and equipment (M&E) imports using an empirical estimated relationship. Second, analyze the implications of specific spillovers embodied in trade of M&E. Third, analyze the interaction of climate and trade policies when accounting for indirect effects induced by spillovers. We find that explicitly modeling trade spillovers reveals significant effects thanks to the transmission mechanisms underlying imports of M&E. We then assess the net contribution of modeling trade spillovers within three policy scenarios. The aggregated net effects of spillovers are rather small confirming findings from previous studies. However, international and intersectoral redistribution effects can be significant. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Lovato T.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC | Vichi M.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC | Vichi M.,Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology | Vichi M.,University of Cape Town
Deep-Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers | Year: 2015

An objective estimation of the current distribution of carbonate system variables for the Mediterranean Sea is proposed using empirical relationships derived from ship-based observations and combined with monthly climatological fields of hydrographic parameters. The high quality data of METEOR84/3 cruise were used to fit multiple linear regression models of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) and Total Alkalinity (TA) from other hydrochemical parameters. These algorithms provided a robust estimation of DIC and TA, with corresponding Root Mean Squared Errors of 7.66 and 5.09μmol/kg, by accounting only for potential temperature, salinity, pressure, and nitrate concentration. After the application of the identified regression models to a set of publicly available climatological fields, an objective assessment of the reconstructed carbonate system monthly distributions was derived and compared against different ship-based surveys. Results showed that the Mediterranean Sea interior was well reproduced with errors <14μmol/kg, whereas the near surface layers still exhibited large uncertainties. The lower degree of confidence of this approach at the surface does not allow the direct application for studying anthropogenic CO2 trends, but some qualitative considerations were drawn from the comparison between the estimated inorganic carbon system and the available observational datasets. Most importantly, the present work showed that the estimated inventories are able to capture the linkages with the physical oceanic features of the system and we propose this method as an inexpensive solution to support the design of monitoring activities in the Mediterranean Sea, which is still poorly constrained by direct observations. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Zampieri M.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC | Scoccimarro E.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC | Scoccimarro E.,Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology | Gualdi S.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC | Gualdi S.,Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology
Environmental Research Letters | Year: 2013

Global warming is believed to be responsible for the reduction of snow amount and duration over the Alps. In fact, a rapid shortening of the snowy season has been measured and perceived by ecosystems and society in the past 30 years, despite the large year-to-year variability. This trend is projected to continue during the 21st century in the climate change scenarios with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Superimposed on the long-term trend, however, there is a low-frequency variability of snowfall associated with multi-decadal changes in the large-scale circulation. The amplitude of this natural low-frequency variation might be relatively large, determining rapid and substantial changes of snowfall, as recently observed. This is already known for winter snowfall over the Alps in connection with the recent tendency toward the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. In this study, we show that the low-frequency variability of Alpine spring snowfall in the past 150 years is affected by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which is a natural periodic fluctuation of Northern Atlantic sea surface temperature. Therefore, the recently observed spring snowfall reduction might be, at least in part, explained by the shift toward a positive AMO phase that happened in the 1990s. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Reale M.,University of Salento | Reale M.,University of Trieste | Lionello P.,University of Salento | Lionello P.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences | Year: 2013

The link between winter (December-January-February) precipitation events at 15 Mediterranean coastal locations and synoptic features (cyclones and Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns) is analyzed. A list of precipitation events has been produced; q percentile thresholds (Thq) and corresponding frequency Nq (for q equal to 25, 50, 90 and 98) have been considered. A negative trend has been detected in total precipitation and N50 at many locations, while no significant trend in N25, N90 and N98 has been found. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern (EAWR) compete for exerting the largest influence on the frequency of the 25th, 50th and 90th percentiles, with EAWR and NAO exerting their largest influence in the central and western Mediterranean areas, respectively. All percentiles show a similar behavior except for the 98th percentile, which shows no convincing link to any teleconnection pattern. The cyclone tracks that are associated with precipitation events have been selected using the ERA-40 reanalysis data, and a strong link between intense precipitation and cyclones is shown for all stations. In general, the probability of detecting a cyclone within a distance of 20 from each station increases with the intensity of the precipitation event and decreases with the duration of a dry period. The origin and track of cyclones producing intense precipitation differ among different areas. When precipitation occurs in the northwestern Mediterranean, cyclones are generally either of Atlantic origin or secondary cyclones associated with the passage of major cyclones north of the Mediterranean Basin, while they are mostly generated inside the region itself for events at the eastern Mediterranean coast. An important fraction of intense events in the southern areas is produced by cyclones that are generated over northern Africa. The analysis of sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500 hPa highlights the important role of cyclone depth, circulation strength, surrounding synoptic condition, and of slow speed of the cyclone center for producing intense precipitation events. © 2013 Author(s).

Vichi M.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui cambiamenti Climatici CMCC | Vichi M.,Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology | Navarra A.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui cambiamenti Climatici CMCC | Navarra A.,Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology | Fogli P.G.,Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui cambiamenti Climatici CMCC
Climatic Change | Year: 2013

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is the only geoengineering technique that allows negative emissions and the reduction of anthropogenic carbon in the atmosphere. Since the time scales of the global carbon cycle are largely driven by the exchanges with the natural oceanic stocks, the implementation of CDR actions is anticipated to create outgassing from the ocean that may reduce their efficiency. The adjustment of the natural carbon cycle to CDR was studied with a numerical Earth System Model, focusing on the oceanic component and considering two idealized families of CDR policies, one based on a target atmospheric concentration and one based on planned negative emissions. Results show that both actions are anticipated to release the anthropogenic carbon stored in the surface ocean, effectively increasing the required removal effort. The additional negative emissions are expected to be lower when the CDR policy is driven by planned removal rates without prescribing a target atmospheric CO2 concentration. © 2013 The Author(s).

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