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Racca P.,Central Institution for Decision Support Systems in Crop Protection | Tschope B.,Central Institution for Decision Support Systems in Crop Protection
Journal fur Kulturpflanzen | Year: 2011

The weather-based decision support system (DSS) SIMCOL for the anthracnose - lupin pathosystem was developed. SIMCOL forecasts the lupin growth development on the basis of temperature (in form of BBCH growth stages) and recommends based on temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and field specific information a control strategy for anthracnose (Colletotrichum lupini) of blue lupin (Lupinus angustifolius). The DSS consists of the following 3 models: - SIMONTO-Lupin: simulation of the BBCH development of L. angustifolius, - SIMCOL1: calculation of the first disease occurrence and the beginning of the treatment in the field, - SIMCOL3: calculation of dangerous infectious periods and scheduling of treatments with the help of a fungicide module (factors for the influence of seed contamination and seed treatment were also integrated). For the analysis of the pathosystem and the modeling the following data-sets were used: - Data from climate chambers to study the relationship between temperature, leaf wetness duration, plant growth stage and disease development. These data were used as a basis for the modelling of the disease efficiency, - Literature data for the development of the SIMONTO-Lupin model, - Historical data of field disease development from monitoring activities for the models validation, - Specific laboratory experiments to analyse the effect of fungicides on the disease development to obtain a fungicide efficacy factor. The validation of SIMCOL1 and SIMONTO-Lupin was carried out with independent data from the Governmental Crop protection services of the federal states Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Saxony-Anhalt, the seed breeder Saatzucht Steinach, the Julius Kühn- nstitut (Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants) and the ZEPP and delivered good results. The DSS is available since the season 2011 for advisory activities of the Governmental Crop protection services and for the seed producers.


Jung J.,Central Institution for Decision Support Systems in Crop Protection | Racca P.,Central Institution for Decision Support Systems in Crop Protection | Schmitt J.,Central Institution for Decision Support Systems in Crop Protection | Kleinhenz B.,Central Institution for Decision Support Systems in Crop Protection
Journal of Applied Entomology | Year: 2014

As a result of increasing cultivation of corn and potatoes, the polyphagous larvae of the click beetles (Coleoptera: Elateridae), called wireworms, become a problem in agriculture (Parker and Howard 2001). The hypothesis that the vertical distribution of wireworms depends on soil moisture, soil temperature and soil type had to be verified. In field experiments, investigations on wireworm activity in relation to soil moisture and soil temperature were carried out over a period of 2 years. Bait traps were buried in soil, and the appearance of larvae was recorded during the seasons. In laboratory, the optimum soil moisture for larvae was tested with four soil types. Correlations between the percentage of observed wireworms and soil moisture were analysed. The results were taken as the basis for the prediction model SIMAGRIO-W (SIMulation of the larvae of AGRIOtes (Wireworms)), which appraises the risk of damages on field culture caused by wireworms in relation to soil moisture and soil temperature. With logistic and Gaussian regressions, a first approach of a prediction model was developed. One output of the model displays the risk for damages in form of a binary response, which identifies two risk classes (risk and no risk). A second output displays for four soil types the percentage of appeared wireworms in relation to soil moisture, starting with an undefined amount of wireworms on a field. With a R2 from 0.81 to 0.89, the percentage of occurred wireworms could be calculated well. The correlations were significant in all tested soil types (P ≤ 0.05). With data collected in 2010 and 2011, an independent validation was carried out to get information about the predictions quality of the developed model SIMAGRIO-W. The hit rate was validated within two classes, risk and no risk. With correct results in over 85% of the cases, the class was predicted correctly. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

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