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Sugiyama M.,Chiyoda Corporation | Akashi O.,Musashino University | Wada K.,Japan Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth | Kanudia A.,KanORS EMR | And 2 more authors.
Climatic Change | Year: 2014

Energy efficiency is one of the main options for mitigating climate change. An accurate representation of various mechanisms of energy efficiency is vital for the assessment of its realistic potential. Results of a questionnaire show that the EMF27 models collectively represent known channels of energy efficiency reasonably well, addressing issues of energy efficiency barriers and rebound effects. The majority of models, including general equilibrium models, have an explicit end-use representation for the transportation sector. All participating partial equilibrium models have some capability of reflecting the actual market behavior of consumers and firms. The EMF27 results show that energy intensity declines faster under climate policy than under a baseline scenario. With a climate policy roughly consistent with a global warming of two degrees, the median annual improvement rate of energy intensity for 2010-2030 reaches 2.3 % per year [with a full model range of 1.3-2.9 %/yr], much faster than the historical rate of 1.3 % per year. The improvement rate increases further if technology is constrained. The results suggest that the target of the United Nations' "Sustainable Energy for All" initiative is consistent with the 2-degree climate change target, as long as there are no technology constraints. The rate of energy intensity decline varies significantly across models, with larger variations at the regional and sectoral levels. Decomposition of the transportation sector down to a service level for a subset of models reveals that to achieve energy efficiency, a general equilibrium model tends to reduce service demands while partial equilibrium models favor technical substitution. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Hallegatte S.,The World Bank | Hallegatte S.,Center International Of Recherche Sur Lenvironnement Et Le Developpement Cired | Green C.,Middlesex University | Nicholls R.J.,University of Southampton | Corfee-Morlot J.,Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Nature Climate Change | Year: 2013

Flood exposure is increasing in coastal cities owing to growing populations and assets, the changing climate, and subsidence. Here we provide a quantification of present and future flood losses in the 136 largest coastal cities. Using a new database of urban protection and different assumptions on adaptation, we account for existing and future flood defences. Average global flood losses in 2005 are estimated to be approximately US$6 billion per year, increasing to US$52 billion by 2050 with projected socio-economic change alone. With climate change and subsidence, present protection will need to be upgraded to avoid unacceptable losses of US$1 trillion or more per year. Even if adaptation investments maintain constant flood probability, subsidence and sea-level rise will increase global flood losses to US$60-63 billion per year in 2050. To maintain present flood risk, adaptation will need to reduce flood probabilities below present values. In this case, the magnitude of losses when floods do occur would increase, often by more than 50%, making it critical to also prepare for larger disasters than we experience today. The analysis identifies the cities that seem most vulnerable to these trends, that is, where the largest increase in losses can be expected. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Zhang X.,Princeton University | Zhang X.,Princeton Environmental Institute | Davidson E.A.,University of Maryland College Park | Mauzerall D.L.,Princeton University | And 4 more authors.
Nature | Year: 2015

Improvements in nitrogen use efficiency in crop production are critical for addressing the triple challenges of food security, environmental degradation and climate change. Such improvements are conditional not only on technological innovation, but also on socio-economic factors that are at present poorly understood. Here we examine historical patterns of agricultural nitrogen-use efficiency and find a broad range of national approaches to agricultural development and related pollution. We analyse examples of nitrogen use and propose targets, by geographic region and crop type, to meet the 2050 global food demand projected by the Food and Agriculture Organization while also meeting the Sustainable Development Goals pertaining to agriculture recently adopted by the United Nations General Assembly. Furthermore, we discuss socio-economic policies and technological innovations that may help achieve them. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Genovese E.,Center International Of Recherche Sur Lenvironnement Et Le Developpement Cired | Green C.,Middlesex University
Journal of Risk Research | Year: 2015

Coastal cities are growing at a very rapid pace, in terms of both population and physical assets, and great uncertainty surrounds the future evolution of hurricane intensity and sea-level rise. The combination of these trends will contribute to large financial losses due to property damage in the absence of specific protections. Southeast Florida represents a clear hot spot of coastal flood exposure: more than 5 million inhabitants live in the counties of Miami Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach, and the population is still growing. It is also a low-lying area where tropical hurricanes hit frequently. This article illustrates a methodology to assess coastal flood damage in urban settlements and it aims to determine more general lessons useful for all coastal cities. We consider the impact of different storm surges predicted by the SLOSH model and investigate flood risk considering different types of hurricanes. For each event, we apply a specific damage function and determine whether the considered storm surges potentially lead to an asset loss, considering both properties and their contents. The results show that, in the absence of protections, losses will be very high for large storm surges, reaching up to tens of billions of US dollars. In the second part of the analysis, we demonstrate how economic impact changes when protections are built up, considering different heights of protections. These results could be used as inputs into a robust decision-making process to determine the future of coastal protection in southern Florida. © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

Giraudet L.-G.,ParisTech National School of Bridges and Roads | Giraudet L.-G.,Center International Of Recherche Sur Lenvironnement Et Le Developpement Cired | Bodineau L.,French Environment and Energy Management Agency | Finon D.,Center International Of Recherche Sur Lenvironnement Et Le Developpement Cired | Finon D.,French National Center for Scientific Research
Energy Efficiency | Year: 2012

White certificate schemes mandate energy companies to promote energy efficiency with flexibility mechanisms, including the trading of energy savings. A unified framework is used to estimate the costs and benefits of the schemes implemented in Great Britain in 2002, in Italy in 2005 and in France in 2006. 'Negawatt-hour cost' estimates reach 0. 009€/kWh saved in Great Britain and 0.037€/kWh saved in France, which compares favourably to energy prices in those countries. Moreover, the benefits of reduced energy bills and CO 2 emissions saved exceed the costs; thus, white certificate schemes pay for themselves. Overall, the policy instrument is cost-effective and economically efficient. A closer look at the differences amongst countries provides general insights about the conceptualization of the instrument: (a) Compared to utility demand-side management, to which they are related, white certificate schemes provide more transparency about energy savings, but less transparency around costs; (b) the substantial efficiency discrepancy between the British scheme and its French counterpart can be explained by differences in technological potentials, coexisting policies and supply-side systems in these countries and (c) the nature and amount of costs influence compliance strategies. Notably, if energy suppliers are allowed to set their retail price freely, they tend to grant subsidies to end-use consumers for energy efficient investments. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

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