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Gillet-Chaulet F.,CNRS Laboratory for Glaciology and Environmental Geophysics | Gagliardini O.,CNRS Laboratory for Glaciology and Environmental Geophysics | Gagliardini O.,Institut Universitaire de France | Seddik H.,Hokkaido University | And 6 more authors.
Cryosphere | Year: 2012

Over the last two decades, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an increasing rate, enhancing its contribution to sea-level rise (SLR). The recent increases in ice loss appear to be due to changes in both the surface mass balance of the ice sheet and ice discharge (ice flux to the ocean). Rapid ice flow directly affects the discharge, but also alters ice-sheet geometry and so affects climate and surface mass balance. Present-day ice-sheet models only represent rapid ice flow in an approximate fashion and, as a consequence, have never explicitly addressed the role of ice discharge on the total GrIS mass balance, especially at the scale of individual outlet glaciers. Here, we present a new-generation prognostic ice-sheet model which reproduces the current patterns of rapid ice flow. This requires three essential developments: the complete solution of the full system of equations governing ice deformation; a variable resolution unstructured mesh to resolve outlet glaciers and the use of inverse methods to better constrain poorly known parameters using observations. The modelled ice discharge is in good agreement with observations on the continental scale and for individual outlets. From this initial state, we investigate possible bounds for the next century ice-sheet mass loss. We run sensitivity experiments of the GrIS dynamical response to perturbations in climate and basal lubrication, assuming a fixed position of the marine termini. We find that increasing ablation tends to reduce outflow and thus decreases the ice-sheet imbalance. In our experiments, the GrIS initial mass (im)balance is preserved throughout the whole century in the absence of reinforced forcing, allowing us to estimate a lower bound of 75 mm for the GrIS contribution to SLR by 2100. In one experiment, we show that the current increase in the rate of ice loss can be reproduced and maintained throughout the whole century. However, this requires a very unlikely perturbation of basal lubrication. From this result we are able to estimate an upper bound of 140 mm from dynamics only for the GrIS contribution to SLR by 2100. © 2012 Author(s).

Seddik H.,Hokkaido University | Greve R.,Hokkaido University | Zwinger T.,Center for Science Ltd. | Placidi L.,International Telematic University Uninettuno
Cryosphere | Year: 2011

A three-dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled ice flow model with induced anisotropy has been applied to a ∼200 × 200 km domain around the Dome Fuji drill site, Antarctica. The model ("Elmer/Ice") is based on the open-source multi-physics package Elmer (http://www.csc.fi/elmer/) and solves the full Stokes equations. Flow-induced anisotropy in ice is accounted for by an implementation of the Continuum-mechanical, Anisotropic Flow model, based on an anisotropic Flow Enhancement factor ("CAFFE model"). Steady-state simulations for present-day climate conditions are conducted. The main findings are: (i) the flow regime at Dome Fuji is a complex superposition of vertical compression, horizontal extension and bed-parallel shear; (ii) for an assumed geothermal heat flux of 60 mW m-2 the basal temperature at Dome Fuji reaches the pressure melting point and the basal melting rate is ∼0.35 mm a -1; (iii) in agreement with observational data, the fabric shows a strong single maximum at Dome Fuji, and the age of the ice is decreased compared to an isotropic scenario; (iv) as a consequence of spatially variable basal melting conditions, the basal age tends to be smaller where the ice is thicker and larger where the ice is thinner. The latter result is of great relevance for the consideration of a future drill site in the area. © Author(s) 2011.

Favier L.,CNRS Laboratory for Glaciology and Environmental Geophysics | Gagliardini O.,CNRS Laboratory for Glaciology and Environmental Geophysics | Gagliardini O.,Institut Universitaire de France | Durand G.,CNRS Laboratory for Glaciology and Environmental Geophysics | Zwinger T.,Center for Science Ltd.
Cryosphere | Year: 2012

The West Antarctic ice sheet is confined by a large area of ice shelves, fed by inland ice through fast flowing ice streams. The dynamics of the grounding line, which is the line-boundary between grounded ice and the downstream ice shelf, has a major influence on the dynamics of the whole ice sheet. However, most ice sheet models use simplifications of the flow equations, as they do not include all the stress components, and are known to fail in their representation of the grounding line dynamics. Here, we present a 3-D full Stokes model of a marine ice sheet, in which the flow problem is coupled with the evolution of the upper and lower free surfaces, and the position of the grounding line is determined by solving a contact problem between the shelf/sheet lower surface and the bedrock. Simulations are performed using the open-source finite-element code Elmer/Ice within a parallel environment. The model's ability to cope with a curved grounding line and the effect of a pinning point beneath the ice shelf are investigated through prognostic simulations. Starting from a steady state, the sea level is slightly decreased to create a contact point between a seamount and the ice shelf. The model predicts a dramatic decrease of the shelf velocities, leading to an advance of the grounding line until both grounded zones merge together, during which an ice rumple forms above the contact area at the pinning point. Finally, we show that once the contact is created, increasing the sea level to its initial value does not release the pinning point and has no effect on the ice dynamics, indicating a stabilising effect of pinning points. © 2012 Author(s).

Moore J.C.,Beijing Normal University | Moore J.C.,University of Lapland | Moore J.C.,Uppsala University | Grinsted A.,Beijing Normal University | And 5 more authors.
Reviews of Geophysics | Year: 2013

We review the two main approaches to estimating sea level rise over the coming century: physically plausible models of reduced complexity that exploit statistical relationships between sea level and climate forcing, and more complex physics-based models of the separate elements of the sea level budget. Previously, estimates of future sea level rise from semiempirical models were considerably larger than those from process-based models. However, we show that the most recent estimates of sea level rise by 2100 using both methods have converged, but largely through increased contributions and uncertainties in process-based model estimates of ice sheets mass loss. Hence, we focus in this paper on ice sheet flow as this has the largest potential to contribute to sea level rise. Progress has been made in ice dynamics, ice stream flow, grounding line migration, and integration of ice sheet models with high-resolution climate models. Calving physics remains an important and difficult modeling issue. Mountain glaciers, numbering hundreds of thousands, must be modeled by extensive statistical extrapolation from a much smaller calibration data set. Rugged topography creates problems in process-based mass balance simulations forced by regional climate models with resolutions 10-100 times larger than the glaciers. Semiempirical models balance increasing numbers of parameters with the choice of noise model for the observations to avoid overfitting the highly autocorrelated sea level data. All models face difficulty in separating out non-climate-driven sea level rise (e.g., groundwater extraction) and long-term disequilibria in the present-day cryosphere-sea level system. Key Points We review the two approaches to estimating sea level rise by 2100We give an overview of glacier, ice sheet and semiempirical modelingWe discuss limitations of state of the art ice sheet and semiempirical models ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Malola S.,University of Jyvaskyla | Lehtovaara L.,University of Jyvaskyla | Enkovaara J.,University of Jyvaskyla | Enkovaara J.,Aalto University | And 3 more authors.
ACS Nano | Year: 2013

Gold nanoclusters protected by a thiolate monolayer (MPC) are widely studied for their potential applications in site-specific bioconjugate labeling, sensing, drug delivery, and molecular electronics. Several MPCs with 1-2 nm metal cores are currently known to have a well-defined molecular structure, and they serve as an important link between molecularly dispersed gold and colloidal gold to understand the size-dependent electronic and optical properties. Here, we show by using an ab initio method together with atomistic models for experimentally observed thiolate-stabilized gold clusters how collective electronic excitations change when the gold core of the MPC grows from 1.5 to 2.0 nm. A strong localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) develops at 540 nm (2.3 eV) in a cluster with a 2.0 nm metal core. The protecting molecular layer enhances the LSPR, while in a smaller cluster with 1.5 nm gold core, the plasmon-like resonance at 540 nm is confined in the metal core by the molecular layer. Our results demonstrate a threshold size for the emergence of LSPR in these systems and help to develop understanding of the effect of the molecular overlayer on plasmonic properties of MPCs enabling engineering of their properties for plasmonic applications. © 2013 American Chemical Society.

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