Center for Population Health

North Sydney, Australia

Center for Population Health

North Sydney, Australia
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SHAPE, the Society for Heart Attack Prevention and Eradication (, a nonprofit grassroots organization dedicated to the mission of eradicating heart attacks, today announced the agenda of its first focus group meeting on prediction of near-future heart attacks using artificial intelligence. The meeting is led by Dr. Morteza Naghavi the founder and executive director of SHAPE and features leading cardiovascular researchers from around the world.. This will be the 20th scientific meeting held by SHAPE since 2001. Detailed agenda of the meeting is shown below. The First Machine Learning Vulnerable Patient Symposium A Focus Group Meeting on Developing an Artificial Intelligence-based Forecast System A Satellite Event in Conjunction with 2016 Annual Scientific Sessions of American Heart Association This event is open to public. Participation via GoToMeeting can be requested. Dinner will be served 7:30 PM. This is the 20th Vulnerable Plaque & Vulnerable Patient Symposium held by SHAPE since 2001. Welcome: Morteza Naghavi, M.D. Founder of SHAPE and Executive Chairman of the SHAPE Task Force Opening Remarks: Valentin Fuster, M.D., Ph.D. Professor of Medicine and Physician-in-Chief, Mount Sinai Hospital and Icahn School of Medicine Jagat Narula M.D., Ph.D. Chief of Cardiology, Mount Sinai West & St. Luke’s Hospitals Associate, Dean, Arnhold Institute for Global Health at Mount Sinai Icahn School of Medicine Ioannis Kakadiaris, Ph.D. Professor of Computer Science and Biomedical Engineering, Director of Machine Learning Laboratory University of Houston Topic: What is Machine Learning and How Can It Shape the Future of Healthcare? Invited Online Presentations: Two Examples of Machine Learning Studies in CVD Risk Assessment (10 minutes each) CVD prediction using support vector machine in a large Australian cohort. Dinesh Kumar, Ph.D. and Sridhar Arjunan, Ph.D. Biosignals Lab, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia (2) Prediction of revascularization after myocardial perfusion SPECT by machine learning in a large clinical population Piotr Slomka, Ph.D. Chief Scientist, Artificial Intelligence in Medicine Program, Department of Imaging Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Professor, UCLA School of Medicine, Los Angeles, CA Moderated Discussions on the Vulnerable Patient Project Machine Learning for Prediction of Near-Term CHD Events All investigators will be asked to give a very brief introduction of their study and how it can fit in Background: Imagine instead of the existing daily weather forecasts and hurricane alerts we were told the probability of a storm within the next 10 years! This is how heart attacks are predicted today. We teach our physicians to calculate the 10-year probability of a heart attack and sudden cardiac death based on their patients’ risk factors. Long term predictions do not trigger immediate preventive actions. Although some people develop warning symptoms, half of men and two-thirds of women who die suddenly of coronary heart disease (CHD) have no previous symptoms. Imagine if we could alert people months, weeks, or even days before a heart attack and trigger immediate preventive actions. The Idea: Use machine learning to create new algorithms to detect who will experience a CHD event within a year (The Vulnerable Patient). Algorithms will be based on banked biospecimen and information collected days up to 12 months prior to the event. We will utilize existing cohorts such as MESA, Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study, Framingham Heart Study, BioImage Study and the Dallas Heart Study. External validation to test for discrimination and calibration will be conducted using other longitudinal observational studies that provide adjudicated cardiovascular event information such as the MiHeart, JHS, DANRISK and ROBINSCA. Additionally, we will use machine learning to characterize individuals who, despite high conventional risk, have lived over 80 years with no CHD events (The Invulnerable ). We expect to discover new targets for drug and possibly vaccine development. We will make the algorithms available as an open source tool to collect additional data over time and increase its predictive value. Organizers: SHAPE as the originating and organizing center for the entire project, recruiting new studies and biobanks, conducting workshops with researchers from each study, fundraising, creating an open source platform community for future enhancement and collaborations. Stanford as the coordinating center for collecting data and samples, and basic science labs. Mount Sinai as the data review and publication center. Machine Learning Lab to be decided, either Google, Apple, IBM, Facebook, Amazon or wherever we find a strong industry partner or sponsor. Director, Cardiac Computed Tomography, Associate Professor of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University Division of Cardiology, The Johns Hopkins Hospital Imagine the new machine learning Vulnerable Patient detection algorithm (heart attack forecaster) is created and validated. If studies confirm the algorithm is able to detect the Vulnerable Patient with 50% or more certainty. In other words, 1 out of 2 patients classified as Vulnerable Patient goes to have an ASCVD event in the following 12 months. Now the questions are: A)    What preventive actions would you take if your asymptomatic patient tested positive as a Vulnerable Patient? B)    What preventive actions would you take if the patient was you?! (This question is meant to circumvent regulatory and financial limitations that may apply to your patients but may not hold you back). Moderators will invite comments from all participants in the meeting. Invited Key Opinion Leaders (Alphabetic Order) Arthur Agatston, M.D. Founder of South Beach Diet, Director of Wellness at Baptist Hospital and Professor of Medicine at University of Miami, FL Daniel Berman, M.D. Professor of Medicine at UCLA, Director of Cardiac Imaging and Nuclear Cardiology at Cedars-Sinai, Los Angeles, CA Michael Blaha, M.D., M.P.H., Director of Clinical Research, Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Heart Disease, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD Mathew Budoff, M.D. Professor of Medicine and Director of Preventive Cardiology, UCLA Harbor, Los Angeles, CA Adolfo Correa, M.D., Ph.D. Chief Science Officer, Jackson Heart Study, Professor of Medicine and Pediatrics, University of Mississippi, Jackson, MS Rahul Deo, M.D., Ph.D. Assistant Professor of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, University of California, San Francisco, CA Raimund Erbel, M.D. Professor of Medicine, Chief of Cardiology and Director of West German Heart Centre, University Essen, Germany Sergio Fazio, M.D., Ph.D. Chair of Preventive Cardiology and Professor of Medicine, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR Zahi Fayad, M.D. Professor of Radiology and Medicine (Cardiology), Director of the Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute, Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, NY Philip Greenland, M.D., Professor of Cardiology, Director, Institute for Public Health and Medicine, Center for Population Health Sciences, Chicago, IL Robert Harrington, M.D. Chair of the Department of Medicine, Professor of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA Harvey Hecht, M.D., Director of Cardiac CT Imaging Laboratory, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY Karl-Heinz Jöckel, Ph.D. Institute for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany Ioannis Kakadiaris, Ph.D. Professor of Computer Science and Biomedical Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, TX Stanley Kleis, Ph.D. Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Biomedical Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, TX Tatiana Kuznetsova, M.D. Professor and Director, Hypertension and Cardiovascular Epidemiology, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium Daniel Levy, M.D. Director of Framingham Heart Study, and Intramural Investigator, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD Roxana Mehran, M.D. Professor of Medicine and Director of Interventional Clinical Trials, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY Ralph Metcalfe, Ph.D. Professor of Mechanical and Biomedical Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, TX Susanne Moebus, Ph.D., M.P.H. Biologist & Epidemiologist, Head of the Centre for Urban Epidemiology, University Essen, Germany Morteza Naghavi, M.D. Founder and Executive Chairman of the SHAPE Task Force, President of MEDITEX, Houston, TX Tasneem Z. Naqvi, M.D. Professor of Medicine and Director of Echocardiography, College of Medicine, May Clinic, Scottsdale, AZ Jagat Narula, M.D., Ph.D. Associate Dean for Global Affairs, Professor of Medicine (Cardiology), Mount Sinai Hospital and School of Medicine, New York, NY Ulla Roggenbuck, Ph.D. Institute for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University Hospital of Essen, Germany Henrik Sillesen, M.D. Professor and Head of Dept. of Vascular Surgery, Rigs Hospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark Robert Superko, M.D. Professor of Medicine and President at Cholesterol, Genetics, and Heart Disease Institute, Carmel, CA Pierre-Jean Touboul, M.D. Professor of Neurology, Department of Neurology and Stroke Center, AP-HP Bichat University Hospital, Neurology and Stroke Center, Paris, France Nathan Wong, M.P.H., Ph.D. Professor of Epidemiology and Director, Heart Disease Prevention Program, University of California, Irvine, CA Symposium Registration About SHAPE The Society for Heart Attack Prevention and Eradication (SHAPE) is a non-profit organization that promotes education and research related to prevention, detection, and treatment of heart attacks. SHAPE is committed to raising public awareness about revolutionary discoveries that are opening exciting avenues that can lead to the eradication of heart attacks. SHAPE's mission is to eradicate heart attacks in the 21st century. SHAPE has recently embarked on “Machine Learning Heart Attack Forecast System (Vulnerable Patient Project)” Project which is a collaborative effort between world’s leading cardiovascular researchers to develop a new Heart Attack Forecast System empowered by artificial intelligence. Additional information on this innovative project will be announced soon. To learn more about SHAPE visit Contact information: 1-877-SHAPE11 and info(at)shapesociety(dot)org. Learn more about the Vulnerable Patient About SHAPE Task Force The SHAPE Task Force, an international group of leading cardiovascular physicians and researchers, has created the SHAPE Guidelines, which educates physicians on how to identify asymptomatic atherosclerosis (hidden plaques) and implement proper therapies to prevent a future heart attack. According to the SHAPE Guidelines, men 45-75 and women 55-75 need to be tested for hidden plaques in coronary or carotid arteries. Individuals with high risk atherosclerosis (high plaque score) should be treated even if their cholesterol level is within statistical “normal range.” If they have plaques, the so-called normal is not normal for them. The higher the amount of plaque burden in the arteries the higher the risk and the more vulnerable to heart attack. SHAPE Guideline aims to identify the asymptomatic “Vulnerable Patient” and offer them intensive preventive therapy to prevent a future heart attack. Knowing one's plaque score can be a matter of life and death. The SHAPE Task Force includes the following: Click below to learn about SHAPE Centers of Excellence Drs Naghavi, PK Shah, Daniel Berman, and Mathew Budoff members of the SHAPE Task Force explain how hospitals and community clinics can become a SHAPE Center of Excellence and establish themselves a leader in preventive health.

Nguyen O.,Center for Population Health | Sheppeard V.,Center for Population Health | Douglas M.W.,University of Sydney | Tu E.,Prince of Wales Hospital | Rawlinson W.,Prince of Wales Hospital
Journal of Clinical Virology | Year: 2010

A 62-year-old woman acquired acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection after heterosexual contact with a known HCV positive former injecting drug user. There were no known sexual or other risk factors for HCV acquisition. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed the case and index were infected with identical genotype 3a strains, consistent with heterosexual transmission in the absence of specific risk factors. © 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Brown G.,La Trobe University | Brown G.,Curtin University Australia | Brown G.,University of New South Wales | O'Donnell D.,Mental Health Commission of NSW | And 3 more authors.
Health Promotion Journal of Australia | Year: 2014

Issue addressed The Australian response to HIV oversaw one of the most rapid and sustained changes in community behaviour in Australia's health-promotion history. The combined action of communities of gay men, sex workers, people who inject drugs, people living with HIV and clinicians working in partnership with government, public health and research has been recognised for many years as highly successful in minimising the HIV epidemic. Methods This article will show how the Australian HIV partnership response moved from a crisis response to a constant and continuously adapting response, with challenges in sustaining the partnership. Drawing on key themes, lessons for broader health promotion are identified. Results The Australian HIV response has shown that a partnership that is engaged, politically active, adaptive and resourced to work across multiple social, structural, behavioural and health-service levels can reduce the transmission and impact of HIV. Conclusions The experience of the response to HIV, including its successes and failures, has lessons applicable across health promotion. This includes the need to harness community mobilisation and action; sustain participation, investment and leadership across the partnership; commit to social, political and structural approaches; and build and use evidence from multiple sources to continuously adapt and evolve. So what? The Australian HIV response was one of the first health issues to have the Ottawa Charter embedded from the beginning, and has many lessons to offer broader health promotion and common challenges. As a profession and a movement, health promotion needs to engage with the interactions and synergies across the promotion of health, learn from our evidence, and resist the siloing of our responses. © 2014 Australian Health Promotion Association.

Weston K.M.,Center for Population Health
New South Wales public health bulletin | Year: 2010

A public health clinic was established to provide antiviral prophylaxis to school contacts during the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza outbreak in NSW, Australia. Children (n = 74) and staff (n = 9) were provided with antiviral (oseltamivir) prophylaxis following exposure to a confirmed case of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza. The success of the clinic included attention to infection control and quarantining of potentially infectious children and staff, attendance at the clinic of pharmacists to ensure accurate dispensing of suspension medication, availability of experienced public health staff at short notice, and provision of accurate information to staff, school children and families attending the clinic.

Hardy L.L.,University of Sydney | King L.,University of Sydney | Hector D.,University of Sydney | Lloyd B.,Center for Population Health
Preventive Medicine | Year: 2012

Objective: To describe the weight status and weight-related behaviors of children commencing school. Methods: This study is a representative cross-sectional survey of Australian children in their first year of schooling (n=1141) in 2010. Height and weight were measured, and parents reported their child's diet, physical activity and screen-time. Results: 18.7% of children were overweight/obese. Compared with non-overweight/obese peers, overweight/obese boys were 1.73 times (95% CI 1.08, 2.79) as likely to exceed recommended screen time and 2.07 times (95% CI 1.11, 3.87) as likely to eat dinner three or more times/week in front of the TV. Overweight/obese girls were twice as likely to have a TV in their bedroom (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.12, 3.59) and usually be rewarded with sweets for good behavior (OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.09, 3.51) and were 1.65 times as likely to be inactive (95% CI 1.08, 2.55). Conclusion: We showed that many children begin school with established weight-related behaviors that occur in the home environment. The inclusion of parents and the home environment in intervention strategies will be important to support changes to reduce childhood obesity. The weight status and weight-related behaviors of children entering school may potentially be a general indicator of the overall effectiveness of obesity prevention interventions among preschool-aged children. © 2012.

Ding D.,University of Sydney | Do A.,Center for Epidemiology and Evidence | Schmidt H.-M.,Center for Population Health | Bauman A.E.,University of Sydney
PLoS ONE | Year: 2015

Background Socioeconomic inequalities in health outcomes have increased over the past few decades in some countries. However, the trends in inequalities related to multiple health risk behaviours have been infrequently reported. In this study, we examined the trends in individual health risk behaviours and a summary lifestyle risk index in New South Wales, Australia, and whether the absolute and relative inequalities in risk behaviours by socioeconomic positions have changed over time. Methods Using data from the annual New South Wales Adult Population Health Survey during the period of 2002-2012, we examined four individual risk behaviours (smoking, higher than recommended alcohol consumption, insufficient fruit and vegetable intake, and insufficient physical activity) and a combined lifestyle risk indicator. Socioeconomic inequalities were assessed based on educational attainment and postal area-level index of relative socioeconomic disadvantage (IRSD), and were presented as prevalence difference for absolute inequalities and prevalence ratio for relative inequalities. Trend tests and survey logistic regression models examined whether the degree of absolute and relative inequalities between the most and least disadvantaged subgroups have changed over time. Results The prevalence of all individual risk behaviours and the summary lifestyle risk indicator declined from 2002 to 2012. Particularly, the prevalence of physical inactivity and smoking decreased from 52.6% and 22% in 2002 to 43.8% and 17.1% in 2012 (p for trend<0.001). However, a significant trend was observed for increasing absolute and relative inequalities in smoking, insufficient fruit and vegetable consumption, and the summary lifestyle risk indicator. Conclusions The overall improvement in health behaviours in New South Wales, Australia, co-occurred with a widening socioeconomic gap. © 2015 Ding et al.

Schaffer A.,Center for Epidemiology and Research | Muscatello D.,Center for Epidemiology and Research | Broome R.,Environmental Health Branch | Corbett S.,Center for Population Health | Smith W.,Environmental Health Branch
Environmental Health: A Global Access Science Source | Year: 2012

Background: From January 30-February 6, 2011, New South Wales was affected by an exceptional heat wave, which broke numerous records. Near real-time Emergency Department (ED) and ambulance surveillance allowed rapid detection of an increase in the number of heat-related ED visits and ambulance calls during this period. The purpose of this study was to quantify the excess heat-related and all-cause ED visits and ambulance calls, and excess all-cause mortality, associated with the heat wave. Methods. ED and ambulance data were obtained from surveillance and administrative databases, while mortality data were obtained from the state death registry. The observed counts were compared with the average counts from the same period from 2006/07 through 2009/10, and a Poisson regression model was constructed to calculate the number of excess ED visits, ambulance and deaths after adjusting for calendar and lag effects. Results: During the heat wave there were 104 and 236 ED visits for heat effects and dehydration respectively, and 116 ambulance calls for heat exposure. From the regression model, all-cause ED visits increased by 2% (95% CI 1.01-1.03), all-cause ambulance calls increased by 14% (95% CI 1.11-1.16), and all-cause mortality increased by 13% (95% CI 1.06-1.22). Those aged 75 years and older had the highest excess rates of all outcomes. Conclusions: The 2011 heat wave resulted in an increase in the number of ED visits and ambulance calls, especially in older persons, as well as an increase in all-cause mortality. Rapid surveillance systems provide markers of heat wave impacts that have fatal outcomes. © 2012 Schaffer et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Bernard D.M.,University of Sydney | Cooper Robbins S.C.,University of Sydney | McCaffery K.J.,University of Sydney | Scott C.M.,Center for Population Health | Rachel Skinner S.,University of Sydney
Medical Journal of Australia | Year: 2011

Objectives: To examine the experience of fear, the fear response, and factors affecting fear in adolescents undergoing school-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. Design, participants and setting: A purposive sampling strategy and qualitative methods, including observation and face-to-face interviews. Focus groups comprised adolescent girls who were involved in HPV vaccination in 2007 at schools in Sydney, New South Wales. Individual interviews were conducted with parents, teachers and vaccination nurses. Results: Data from observing vaccination days at three schools and from interviewing 130 adolescents in 20 focus groups, 38 parents, 10 teachers and seven nurses were included in the analysis. All participants discussed the issue of fear and distress experienced by adolescent girls in relation to HPV vaccination. Observations corroborated the focus group and interview data. Our results indicated that fear was promoted by witnessing the fear reactions of peers; perceived judgement by peers; lack of information or misinformation; and being vaccinated later in the day. Fear was moderated by procedural factors, the support of peers, appropriate knowledge, and nurses' distraction techniques or approach. Fear also affected acceptance of HPV vaccination. Conclusions: Fear of HPV vaccination was a near universal experience among adolescents in the school setting and was often associated with significant distress that had an adverse impact on the vaccination process. School vaccination could be improved by proactively managing fear and distress.

PubMed | Cancer Institute NSW and Center for Population Health
Type: Journal Article | Journal: Public health research & practice | Year: 2016

A continued increase in the proportion of adolescents who never smoke, as well as an understanding of factors that influence reductions in smoking among this susceptible population, is crucial. The World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control provides an appropriate structure to briefly examine Australian and New South Wales policies and programs that are influencing reductions in smoking among adolescents in Australia. This paper provides an overview of price and recent tax measures to reduce the demand for tobacco, the evolution of smoke-free environment policies, changes to tobacco labelling and packaging, public education campaigns, and restrictions to curb tobacco advertising. It also discusses supplyreduction measures that limit adolescents access to tobacco products. Consideration is given to emerging priorities to achieve continued declines in smoking by Australian adolescents.

News Article | December 9, 2016

Instead of being urged to simply "be more compassionate," doctors should learn specific empathy skills during their training to improve their care of patients, one doctor argues in a new paper. According to Dr. David Jeffrey, an honorary lecturer in palliative medicine at the Center for Population Health Sciences in Edinburgh, Scotland, who wrote the paper, there is concern about a general lack of psychological and social support for patients from doctors. Some studies have found that medical students experience a decline in empathy for their patients as they get further along in their training. In addition, the "commercialization of health care leaves people vulnerable" to being treated as though their care is simply an instrument to bring in money to the system, Jeffrey said. Patients can become dehumanized by the system, he said. But there is also concern that if doctors become too emotionally involved with their patients, they may experience psychological distress and burnout, Jeffrey said. In his article, Jeffrey distinguishes among the three terms that are often used interchangeably — empathy, sympathy and compassion — in an attempt to provide some clarity to this problem. Jeffrey argues that doctors would best serve their patients by striving to have empathy for their patients, rather than sympathy or compassion. [7 Medical Myths Even Doctors Believe] For example, having empathy means imagining what it is like to be a specific person undergoing a specific experience, rather than imagining that they themselves are undergoing that experience, Jeffrey said. "This more sophisticated approach requires mental flexibility, an ability to regulate one's emotions and to suppress one's own perspective in the patient's interests," Jeffrey told said. In contrast, having sympathy means taking a more "self-oriented" approach, and imagining what it would be like for yourself to be in another person's situation. This is a way of trying to identify with a person, but it means that you assume that people will think and feel the way you do, Jeffrey said. Also, a doctor who attempts to sympathize with a patient may focus on the doctor's own distress, and risk burning out, he said. Having compassion means being aware of the suffering of others, but not necessarily understanding their views, Jeffrey said. What's more, Jeffrey said, compassion and sympathy are simply reactions, that don't involve much reflection. It takes skill to develop empathy, and developing this skill should be a goal for medical education, Jeffrey said. In Jeffrey's view, doctors should develop empathy by learning to build a connection with their patients that involves emotional sharing, as well as an "other-oriented" perspective, in which the doctor tries to imagine what it is like to be the patient. Doctors can then act appropriately on the understanding they have gained to help the patient, Jeffrey said. "A benefit of this model of empathy is that it focuses on developing skills, attitudes and moral concern rather than just urging medical students and doctors to be more compassionate," Jeffrey said. "Empathy, unlike compassion or sympathy, is not something that just happens to us, it is a choice to make to pay attention to extend ourselves. It requires an effort." The paper was published yesterday (Dec. 6) in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine.

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