Center for Global Change
Center for Global Change
Revadekar J.V.,Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology |
Hameed S.,State University of New York at Stony Brook |
Collins D.,National Climate Center |
Manton M.,Monash University |
And 8 more authors.
International Journal of Climatology | Year: 2013
South Asia covers more than 30° of latitude with weather observation stations situated from 6°N at Galle, Sri Lanka, to 36°N at Chitral in Pakistan. Moreover, the South Asian station network ranges in altitude from sea level to nearly 4000 m above sea level. This paper uses time series of 11 objectively defined indices of daily temperature extremes at 197 stations in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka to examine the possible impacts of elevation and latitude on changes in temperature extremes over the period of 1971-2000. Trends in extreme indices are consistent with general warming only at low altitudes and latitudes. Stations at high altitudes and latitudes show both positive and negative trends in extreme temperature indices. As a notable example, the Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR), which has been known to decrease in most parts of the globe, has increasing trends over many high altitude stations in South Asia. Trends in extreme temperature indices at stations in South Asia higher than 2000 m above sea level are mostly in disagreement with those reported over the Tibetan Plateau. Observed trends at low altitude locations in South Asia suggest that these sites can generally expect future changes in temperature extremes that are consistent with broad-scale warming. High-elevation sites appear to be more influenced by local factors and, hence, future changes in temperature extremes may be less predictable for these locations. © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.
Sheikh M.M.,Global Change Impact Studies Center |
Manzoor N.,Global Change Impact Studies Center |
Ashraf J.,Global Change Impact Studies Center |
Adnan M.,Global Change Impact Studies Center |
And 9 more authors.
International Journal of Climatology | Year: 2015
Over the last few decades, weather and climate extremes have become a major focus of researchers, the media and general public due to their damaging effects on human society and infrastructure. Trends in indices of climate extremes are studied for the South Asian region using high-quality records of daily temperature and precipitation observations. Data records from 210 (265) temperature (precipitation) observation stations are analysed over the period 1971-2000 (1961-2000). Spatial maps of station trends, time series of regional averages and frequency distribution analysis form the basis of this study. Due to the highly diverse geography of the South Asian region, the results are also described for some specific regions, such as the island of Sri Lanka; the tropical region (excluding Sri Lanka); the Greater Himalayas above 35°N, the Eastern Himalayas (Nepal) and the Thar Desert. Generally, changes in the frequency of temperature extremes over South Asia are what one would expect in a warming world; warm extremes have become more common and cold extremes less common. The warming influence is greater in the Eastern Himalayas compared with that in the Greater Himalayas. The Thar Desert also shows enhanced warming, but increases are mostly less than in the Eastern Himalayas. Changes in the indices of extreme precipitation are more mixed than those of temperature, with spatially coherent changes evident only at relatively small scales. Nevertheless, most extreme precipitation indices show increases in the South Asia average, consistent with globally averaged results. The indices trends are further studied in the context of Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs) over the region. Countries falling within the ABC hotspot namely Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) have shown a different behaviour on the trends of extreme indices compared with the parts outside this hotspot. IGP has increased temperature and decreased rainfall and tally closely with the actual trends. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.
Etzold B.,University of Bonn |
Ahmed A.U.,Center for Global Change |
Neelormi S.,Center for Global Change
Climate and Development | Year: 2014
This article presents empirical evidence on changing rainfall patterns in Kurigram district in northern Bangladesh, on the local people's perception of these changes, and on their decision to migrate, or not, in order to cope with rainfall variability and food insecurity. Our study was conducted as one of eight case studies within the 'Where the Rain Falls' Project. Taking on a social vulnerability perspective, we show that migration from the region is not driven by climatic changes, but rather by the existing livelihood and labour migration systems. First, there is a distinct seasonality and thus rainfall dependency of rural livelihoods, which makes the rural population sensitive to changing rainfall patterns. Second, rainfall variability and food security are closely intertwined. Third, the distinct rhythm in the labour migration system is largely structured by seasonal hunger (Monga) in northern Bangladesh and by the demand for agricultural labourers and informal workers at the respective destinations. Fourth, persisting local patterns of social inequality shape both people's condition of food security and their decision to migrate for work or not. We conclude that, instead of climate change, social inequality and food insecurity as well as structural economic differences are the strongest drivers of migration inside Bangladesh. © 2013 © 2013 The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis.