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Mondal M.S.,Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology | Chowdhury J.U.,Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology | Ferdous M.R.,Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services
Water Resources Management | Year: 2010

A risk-based evaluation is performed for meeting future water demands in the Brahmaputra Floodplain Area within Bangladesh (BFA). This evaluation is carried out using three risk-based performance indicators: reliability, resiliency and vulnerability. The vulnerability indicator has been redefined incorporating the aspect of a supply failure. The analysis includes the impacts of climate change on both water demands and resources, and the generation of synthetic flows of the Brahmaputra River using time series models. The simulated values of the indicators reveal that the expected demand of the BFA up to the year 2050 can be supplied with the proposed Brahmaputra Barrage inside Bangladesh under the 'no change' in climatic condition, provided that the groundwater remains usable. However, if groundwater becomes unusable due to widespread arsenic contamination and/or a climate change occurs, it would not be possible to meet the future water demand of the region with high reliability, moderate resiliency and low vulnerability. © 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Source

Hahn M.B.,University of Wisconsin - Madison | Hahn M.B.,Centers for Disease Control and Prevention | Patz J.A.,University of Wisconsin - Madison | Patz J.A.,Centers for Disease Control and Prevention | And 10 more authors.
American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene | Year: 2014

Nipah virus has caused recurring outbreaks in central and northwest Bangladesh (the "Nipah Belt"). Little is known about roosting behavior of the fruit bat reservoir, Pteropus giganteus, or factors driving spillover. We compared human population density and ecological characteristics of case villages and control villages (no reported outbreaks) to understand their role in P. giganteus roosting ecology and Nipah virus spillover risk. Nipah Belt villages have a higher human population density (P < 0.0001), and forests that are more fragmented than elsewhere in Bangladesh (0.50 versus 0.32 patches/km2, P < 0.0001). The number of roosts in a village correlates with forest fragmentation (r = 0.22, P = 0.03). Villages with a roost containing Polyalthia longifolia or Bombax ceiba trees were more likely case villages (odds ratio [OR] = 10.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.3-90.6). This study suggests that, in addition to human population density, composition and structure of the landscape shared by P. giganteus and humans may influence the geographic distribution of Nipah virus spillovers. Copyright © 2014 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Source

Dasgupta S.,The World Bank | Huq M.,Development Policy Group | Khan Z.H.,Institute of Water Modeling | Masud M.S.,Institute of Water Modeling | And 3 more authors.
Journal of Environment and Development | Year: 2011

Bangladesh is one of the most flood prone countries in the world. Two thirds of the country is less than 5 m above sea level. Past monsoon flood records indicate that about 21% of the country is subject to annual flooding and an additional 42% is at risk of floods with varied intensity. Although annual regular flooding has traditionally been beneficial, providing nutrient-laden sediments and recharging groundwater aquifers, the country often experiences severe flooding during a monsoon that causes significant damage to crops and properties with adverse impacts on rural livelihoods and production. The 1998 flood inundated two thirds of the land area, resulting in damages and losses of over US$2 billion, or 4.8% of GDP. Climate models suggest increased precipitation, higher transboundary water flows, and sea-level rise will all increase the destructive power of monsoon floods. Using climate change scenarios out to 2050, hydrological and hydrodynamic models, this article estimates an incremental cost to climate-proof roads and railways, river embankments protecting productive agricultural lands, and drainage systems and erosion control measures for major towns of US$2,671 million initially and US$54 million in annual recurrent costs. © 2011 SAGE Publications. Source

Mount N.J.,University of Nottingham | Tate N.J.,University of Leicester | Sarker M.H.,Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services | Thorne C.R.,University of Nottingham
Geomorphology | Year: 2013

In this study continuous wavelet transforms are used to explore spatio-temporal patterns of multi-scale bank line retreat along a 204. km reach of the Jamuna River, Bangladesh. A sequence of eight bank line retreat series, derived from remotely-sensed imagery for the period 1987-1999, is transformed using the Morlet mother wavelet. Bank erosion is shown to operate at several characteristic spatial and temporal scales. Local erosion and bank line retreat are shown to occur in short, well defined reaches characterized by temporal persistence at the same location, and separated by relatively stable reaches. In contrast, evidence of downstream propagation of bank line retreat patterns is evident at larger spatial scales. The intensity of localised bank line retreat (i.e. at scales of 0-20. km) is strongly related to the magnitude of monsoonal peak discharge, but this relationship weakens as the spatial scale of erosion increases. The potential of continuous wavelet analysis for enhancing our understanding of morphological evolution in complex fluvial systems with multi-channel planforms is discussed. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. Source

Sarker M.H.,Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services | Thorne C.R.,University of Nottingham | Aktar M.N.,Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services | Ferdous M.R.,Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services
Geomorphology | Year: 2014

The Jamuna River is the downstream continuation of the Brahmaputra in Bangladesh. It is one of the largest sand-bed braided rivers in the world and every year it erodes thousand hectares of mainland floodplain, rendering tens of thousands of people landless and/or homeless. Understanding the morpho-dynamics of this river and its responses to the various drivers of morphological change that act on it is essential to improving the livelihoods of millions of floodplain dwellers in Bangladesh, especially given the threats posed by climate change. Reliable data, information and knowledge of river process are sparse and so progress in linking the impacts of multiple drivers (including neo-tectonics, earthquakes, large-scale avulsions and engineering interventions) to complex morphological responses depends on making best use of historical maps, time-series satellite images, hydro-morphological data, expert judgment and local knowledge. This paper draws on all these sources to chronicle the morphological evolution of the Jamuna River since the avulsion that created it about 200. years ago, and to establish temporal trends and spatial patterns in the changes that have characterized process-response mechanisms in this fluvial system since then. The understanding gained from these investigations then supports deeper analyses to: explain how historical migration of the river westward has produced significant contrasts between left and right (west) bank material properties; elucidate the relationships between discharge, fluvial processes, anabranch instability and floodplain erosion rates, and; identify causal links between drivers and morphological responses at a variety of time and space scales. Finally, the new knowledge generated by the analyses developed herein are combined with existing, conceptual and empirical process-response models for the Jamuna to predict possible future morphological adjustments in ways helpful in identifying appropriate strategies for climate change adaptation in Bangladesh. The enhanced knowledge gained from these historical and contemporary investigations may also be useful in assessing the impacts of natural and anthropogenic drivers on other large, braided rivers. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. Source

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