Time filter

Source Type

News Article | April 27, 2017
Site: www.eurekalert.org

Every year, worldwide wine industry suffers losses of more than ten billion US dollars from damaged assets, production losses, and lost profits due to extreme weather events and natural disasters. A multidisciplinary European-Australian team of researchers led by Dr. James Daniell of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) examines the extent to which regions are affected by the risks and how climate change influences wine industry. At the 2017 Annual Conference of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) in Vienna, Daniell presented a global risk index for wine regions. The wine regions of Mendoza and San Juan in Argentina are exposed to the highest risks due to extreme weather and natural hazards worldwide. Kakheti and Racha in Georgia come in at number 2, followed by Southern Cahul in Moldova (number 3), Northwest Slovenia (number 4), and Yaruqui in Ecuador and Nagano in Japan (number 5). These are the first results of a current worldwide study and the first release of the global risk index for wine regions presented by the head of the study, Dr. James Daniell, of the Geophysical Institute (GPI) and the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) of KIT at the 2017 Annual Conference of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) in Vienna in the session of "Natural hazard event analyses for risk reduction and adaptation." The EGU honored Daniell by granting him the "Early Career Scientist Award in Natural Hazards for 2017." The study is carried out and the index is developed in cooperation with seismologists, meteorologists, and representatives of other disciplines from KIT, Australian National University, University of Adelaide, Griffith University, University of New South Wales, and University College London as well as Risklayer GmbH, a company located in Karlsruhe. The "WineRisk" website summarizes the results of the study and presents solutions for wine regions: http://www. The study covers more than 7,500 wine regions in 131 countries. There is no wine region in the world that is not exposed to extreme weather or natural disasters. Events, such as frost, hail, floods, heat, drought, forest fires, and bushfires as well as earthquakes make worldwide wine industry lose more than 10 billion US$ every year according to conservative estimations. These losses result from damaged assets, losses of production, and lost profit. "Cold waves and frost have a large impact," James Daniell says. In the last few days, much frost occurred across Europe, with Slovakia, Bosnia, Serbia, Hungary, Austria, and Czech Republic having the worst impact. Hailstorms are one of the largest yearly natural threats to European winemakers. Traditional wine countries like France and Italy have seen huge losses in the past five years due to hail and frost, with many losses being recorded in the regions of Burgundy and Piedmont. The hail losses from 2012 to 2016 in some vineyards totaled 50 to 90 percent of the value of the crop and caused long-term damage to many old vines. It is not just Europe that is affected by hail. All over the world, winegrowing regions are affected by at least one hail event per year, which can cause damage to the single vintage or to multiple vintages depending on the growth phase of the vines. According to James Daniell, hail nets can save the crop in most cases, given a large hail event. "Cost-benefit analyses generally show that the premium wines should be the ones covered by hail nets, with insurance or other cheaper methods used for other wines." Earthquakes have the ability to knock out the infrastructure of entire wine regions for a number of years. In the past years, earthquakes struck Chile, New Zealand, and the USA, among other smaller events causing damage around the world. Over 125 million liters of wine were lost in Chile in 2010, mainly due to the failure of steel tanks. "Earthquake-resistant design could have saved many millions of liters," Daniell says. Earthquakes also cause large losses to buildings, tanks, barrels, equipment, and chemicals. Even small earthquakes do not only cause financial loss, but also historical loss by destroying tasting rooms and rare wine collections. A few dollars investment in stabilization mechanisms, such as quake wax, zip ties or bolts, can often save millions of dollars loss. In addition, natural disasters are associated with losses of jobs and tourism. Global climate change will have both positive and negative effects on wine industry, according to the study. Researchers expect a general shift of wine-growing regions southward and northward, while some wine regions closer to the equator may be lost. Many wines may indeed improve. "The English, Canadian, and Northern China wine regions will likely increase production markedly and continue to improve their market share and quality of production," predicts Dr. Daniell. The scientists expect that many wineries will master climate changes by changing grape varieties or harvest times. In addition, they will profit from new grape strains, innovative technologies to optimize production and reduce damage due to biological pathogens and insects, and new methods to overcome extreme weather events. The study also covers problems, such as bushfires causing smoke taint to vines. However, smaller-scale studies are required before the results can be included globally in the index. In addition, the effects of floods on vines are being explored. Nevertheless, a major volcanic eruption would likely cause the largest global impact to the wine industry, examples being the Laki eruption of 1783/84 or the Tambora eruption in 1815 which caused the famous "year without a summer" in 1816. Atmospheric changes, lack of sunlight, and global transport problems could cause major issues not only for the wine industry, other food security issues would likely be more important. Despite all these hazards, the wine industry continues to grow and diversify. "Through detailed natural hazard analysis, research can help winemakers and governments alike to prepare adequately for the natural hazards that they face and to reduce losses," Dr. James Daniell says. The geophysicist born in Australia also developed the CATDAT database covering socioeconomic data on natural disasters. Last year, he published CATDAT statistics, according to which 8 million people died and over 7 trillion US$ of loss were caused by natural disasters since 1900. The Biggest Wine Producers in the World and Their Main Threats: More about the KIT Climate and Environment Center: http://www. . Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) pools its three core tasks of research, higher education, and innovation in a mission. With about 9,300 employees and 25,000 students, KIT is one of the big institutions of research and higher education in natural sciences and engineering in Europe. KIT - The Research University in the Helmholtz Association Since 2010, the KIT has been certified as a family-friendly university. This press release is available on the internet at http://www. .


News Article | April 28, 2017
Site: www.chromatographytechniques.com

Every year, worldwide wine industry suffers losses of more than 10 billion U.S. dollars from damaged assets, production losses, and lost profits due to extreme weather events and natural disasters. A multidisciplinary European-Australian team of researchers led by James Daniell of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) examines the extent to which regions are affected by the risks and how climate change influences wine industry. At the 2017 Annual Conference of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) in Vienna, Daniell presented a global risk index for wine regions. The wine regions of Mendoza and San Juan in Argentina are exposed to the highest risks due to extreme weather and natural hazards worldwide. Kakheti and Racha in Georgia come in at number 2, followed by Southern Cahul in Moldova (number 3), Northwest Slovenia (number 4), and Yaruqui in Ecuador and Nagano in Japan (number 5). These are the first results of a current worldwide study and the first release of the global risk index for wine regions presented by the head of the study, Dr. James Daniell, of the Geophysical Institute (GPI) and the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) of KIT at the 2017 Annual Conference of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) in Vienna in the session of “Natural hazard event analyses for risk reduction and adaptation.” The EGU honored Daniell by granting him the “Early Career Scientist Award in Natural Hazards for 2017.” The study is carried out and the index is developed in cooperation with seismologists, meteorologists, and representatives of other disciplines from KIT, Australian National University, University of Adelaide, Griffith University, University of New South Wales, and University College London as well as Risklayer GmbH, a company located in Karlsruhe. The “WineRisk” website summarizes the results of the study and presents solutions for wine regions. The study covers more than 7,500 wine regions in 131 countries. There is no wine region in the world that is not exposed to extreme weather or natural disasters. Events such as frost, hail, floods, heat, drought, forest fires, and bushfires as well as earthquakes make worldwide wine industry lose more than $10 billion every year according to conservative estimations. These losses result from damaged assets, losses of production, and lost profit. “Cold waves and frost have a large impact,” James Daniell says. In the last few days, much frost occurred across Europe, with Slovakia, Bosnia, Serbia, Hungary, Austria, and Czech Republic having the worst impact. Hailstorms are one of the largest yearly natural threats to European winemakers. Traditional wine countries like France and Italy have seen huge losses in the past five years due to hail and frost, with many losses being recorded in the regions of Burgundy and Piedmont. The hail losses from 2012 to 2016 in some vineyards totaled 50 to 90 percent of the value of the crop and caused long-term damage to many old vines. It is not just Europe that is affected by hail. All over the world, winegrowing regions are affected by at least one hail event per year, which can cause damage to the single vintage or to multiple vintages depending on the growth phase of the vines. According to James Daniell, hail nets can save the crop in most cases, given a large hail event. “Cost-benefit analyses generally show that the premium wines should be the ones covered by hail nets, with insurance or other cheaper methods used for other wines.” Earthquakes have the ability to knock out the infrastructure of entire wine regions for a number of years. In the past years, earthquakes struck Chile, New Zealand, and the USA, among other smaller events causing damage around the world. Over 125 million liters of wine were lost in Chile in 2010, mainly due to the failure of steel tanks. “Earthquake-resistant design could have saved many millions of liters,” Daniell says. Earthquakes also cause large losses to buildings, tanks, barrels, equipment, and chemicals. Even small earthquakes do not only cause financial loss, but also historical loss by destroying tasting rooms and rare wine collections. A few dollars investment in stabilization mechanisms, such as quake wax, zip ties or bolts, can often save millions of dollars loss. In addition, natural disasters are associated with losses of jobs and tourism. Global climate change will have both positive and negative effects on wine industry, according to the study. Researchers expect a general shift of wine-growing regions southward and northward, while some wine regions closer to the equator may be lost. Many wines may indeed improve. “The English, Canadian, and Northern China wine regions will likely increase production markedly and continue to improve their market share and quality of production,” predicts Daniell. The scientists expect that many wineries will master climate changes by changing grape varieties or harvest times. In addition, they will profit from new grape strains, innovative technologies to optimize production and reduce damage due to biological pathogens and insects, and new methods to overcome extreme weather events. The study also covers problems, such as bushfires causing smoke taint to vines. However, smaller-scale studies are required before the results can be included globally in the index. In addition, the effects of floods on vines are being explored. Nevertheless, a major volcanic eruption would likely cause the largest global impact to the wine industry, examples being the Laki eruption of 1783/84 or the Tambora eruption in 1815 which caused the famous “year without a summer” in 1816. Atmospheric changes, lack of sunlight, and global transport problems could cause major issues not only for the wine industry, other food security issues would likely be more important. Despite all these hazards, the wine industry continues to grow and diversify. “Through detailed natural hazard analysis, research can help winemakers and governments alike to prepare adequately for the natural hazards that they face and to reduce losses,” James Daniell says. The geophysicist born in Australia also developed the CATDAT database covering socioeconomic data on natural disasters. Last year, he published CATDAT statistics, according to which 8 million people died and over $7 trillion of loss were caused by natural disasters since 1900. The Biggest Wine Producers in the World and Their Main Threats:


Guse B.,German Research Center for Geosciences | Guse B.,Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology | Guse B.,University of Kiel | Hofherr T.H.,Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology | And 3 more authors.
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | Year: 2010

A novel approach to consider additional spatial information in flood frequency analyses, especially for the estimation of discharges with recurrence intervals larger than 100 years, is presented. For this purpose, large flood quantiles, i.e. pairs of a discharge and its corresponding recurrence interval, as well as an upper bound discharge, are combined within a mixed bounded distribution function. The large flood quantiles are derived using probabilistic regional envelope curves (PRECs) for all sites of a pooling group. These PREC flood quantiles are introduced into an at-site flood frequency analysis by assuming that they are representative for the range of recurrence intervals which is covered by PREC flood quantiles. For recurrence intervals above a certain inflection point, a Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function with a positive shape parameter is used. This GEV asymptotically approaches an upper bound derived from an empirical envelope curve. The resulting mixed distribution function is composed of two distribution functions which are connected at the inflection point. This method is applied to 83 streamflow gauges in Saxony/Germany. Our analysis illustrates that the presented mixed bounded distribution function adequately considers PREC flood quantiles as well as an upper bound discharge. The introduction of both into an at-site flood frequency analysis improves the quantile estimation. A sensitivity analysis reveals that, for the target recurrence interval of 1000 years, the flood quantile estimation is less sensitive to the selection of an empirical envelope curve than to the selection of PREC discharges and of the inflection point between the mixed bounded distribution function. © 2010 Author(s).


Mohr S.,Karlsruhe Institute of Technology | Mohr S.,Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology | Kunz M.,Karlsruhe Institute of Technology | Kunz M.,Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology
Atmospheric Research | Year: 2013

This study investigates whether any evidence can be found to support the occurrence of alterations in the hailstorm frequency in the last few decades (1978-2009) over Germany and Europe. Due to their local-scale extent and a lack of appropriate monitoring systems, hailstorms are not captured reliably and comprehensively over long periods by current observation systems. To overcome this constraint, we consider various convective indices and parameters (CPs) derived from soundings at 1200 UTC, and we evaluate which of them are appropriate for predicting hail damage days according to loss data from a building insurance company. Most of the CPs that rely on moisture at the near-surface layers exhibit a significant positive trend towards a higher convective potential. This finding applies to the 90% (10%) percentiles of the annual distribution and to the number of days that exceed (or fall below) a specific threshold, which is suitable for hailstorm prediction. Negative and, at most stations, insignificant trends of CPs that rely on moisture at higher levels or if the initial parameters of the lifting curve were mixed over the lowest layers can be attributed to inconsistency in the time series of the dew point. This in homogeneity is caused by changes in the instrumentation around the year 1990. The investigations show considerable spatial differences in the convective potential both in the mean and the trends, with a distinct north-to-south gradient and a less marked west-to-east gradient over Europe and Germany. The spatial distribution of the trends, however, is fairly consistent among the CPs that are based on the same principles. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.


Daniell J.E.,General Sir John Monash Foundation | Daniell J.E.,Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology | Daniell J.E.,Karlsruhe Institute of Technology | Khazai B.,Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology | And 4 more authors.
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science | Year: 2011

The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field. © 2011 Author(s).


Schroter K.,Helmholtz Center Potsdam | Schroter K.,Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology | Kunz M.,Karlsruhe Institute of Technology | Kunz M.,Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology | And 6 more authors.
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | Year: 2015

The summer flood of 2013 set a new record for large-scale floods in Germany for at least the last 60 years. In this paper we analyse the key hydro-meteorological factors using extreme value statistics as well as aggregated severity indices. For the long-term classification of the recent flood we draw comparisons to a set of past large-scale flood events in Germany, notably the high-impact summer floods from August 2002 and July 1954. Our analysis shows that the combination of extreme initial wetness at the national scale - caused by a pronounced precipitation anomaly in the month of May 2013 - and strong, but not extraordinary event precipitation were the key drivers for this exceptional flood event. This provides additional insights into the importance of catchment wetness for high return period floods on a large scale. The database compiled and the methodological developments provide a consistent framework for the rapid evaluation of future floods. © Author(s) 2015.


Mohr S.,Karlsruhe Institute of Technology | Mohr S.,Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology | Kunz M.,Karlsruhe Institute of Technology | Kunz M.,Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology | Geyer B.,Helmholtz Center Geesthacht
Geophysical Research Letters | Year: 2015

Due to the local-scale nature of hail and a lack of appropriate observation systems, comprehensive, reliable, and consistent information about hail frequency and intensity in Europe is not available. To overcome this constraint, we developed a logistic hail model that quantifies the potential of the atmosphere to form hailstorms. The model is based on a combination of appropriate hail-relevant meteorological parameters. This paper presents the application of an adjusted version of the logistic model with the objective being to estimate the hail potential across Europe based on dynamically downscaled National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research1 reanalysis over a long-term period of 60 years (1951-2010). The model output, in terms of the potential hail index (PHI), identified several hot spots that are well known from other observational studies. Time series of the PHI over the 60 year period show a high correlation at different sites across Europe and high annual and multiannual variability, but no overall trend. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.


Mohr S.,Karlsruhe Institute of Technology | Mohr S.,Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology | Kunz M.,Karlsruhe Institute of Technology | Kunz M.,Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology | Keuler K.,TU Brandenburg
Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres | Year: 2015

This study investigates to what extent the frequency of hail events in the summer months has changed during the past decades and which changes are expected to occur in the future. To improve the diagnostics of hail events by considering various factors relevant for the formation of hail, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. This statistical model is based on a combination of appropriate meteorological parameters (convective parameter, moisture content, etc.) and synoptic weather types. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index. Validations with independent data sets confirm the reliability of the model results. For Germany, the logistic hail model applied to reanalysis data over the past decades shows a markedly north-to-south gradient with most of the potential hail days occurring in the south. Applied to an ensemble of seven regional climate model simulations, it is found that the potential for hail events will increase in the future (2021-2050) compared to the past (1971-2000), but only statistically significant in the northwest and south of Germany. Key Points Improved diagnostic of hail events in climate models by logistic regression Logistic hail model shows good agreement with observed hail events Potential for hail events will be slightly increasing in some parts of Germany ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.


Burton C.G.,GEM Foundation | Khazai B.,Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology | Silva V.,GEM Foundation
NCEE 2014 - 10th U.S. National Conference on Earthquake Engineering: Frontiers of Earthquake Engineering | Year: 2014

At the core of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is the development of state-of-the-art modeling capabilities that can be used worldwide for the assessment and communication of seismic risk. While many approaches for understanding seismic risk exist, it is the dynamic interrelationships between hazard potential, physical risk, and the social conditions of populations that are becoming the focal point for policy-makers, emergency managers, stakeholders, and the general public. The purpose of this paper is to introduce GEM's Integrated Risk Modeling Toolkit, an open-source software tool that will allow risk analysts to draw from results on exposure, predicted mortality, and property loss, and combine these results with socio-economic data and/or computed models of social and economic vulnerability in a robust and meaningful way. A proof of concept using Portugal is demonstrated to assess the total (seismic) risk of that country.


Dransch D.,Helmholtz Center Potsdam | Rotzoll H.,Humboldt University of Berlin | Poser K.,Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology
International Journal of Digital Earth | Year: 2010

Risk communication is a significant challenge in risk management. It serves different purposes; an important one is to improve the public risk awareness and mitigation. Because of the strong spatio-temporal component of natural hazards, maps can play a decisive role in communicating risk information. The application and design of maps for risk communication especially to the public has not been investigated comprehensively. Specific constraints and challenges of risk communication have not been considered systematically in the map design process so far. This study aims at developing a frame for the application and design of interactive risk and hazard maps for the public which is based on the specific constraints and challenges of risk communication. In a literature review it introduces concepts and methods from social sciences and psychology, which have been assessed as important for communicating risk information. The concepts and methods are adapted to map-mediated risk communication according to the approaches of Activity Theory. Communication objectives and tasks which are essential to improve risk mitigation are identified and geovisualization methods for information presentation are related according to the degree which they are able to serve them. Based on this, some principles for map-based risk communication are established. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

Loading Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology collaborators
Loading Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology collaborators