Lindsay S.W.,London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine |
Hole D.G.,Center for Applied Biodiversity Science |
Hutchinson R.A.,Durham University |
Richards S.A.,Durham University |
Willis S.G.,Durham University
Malaria Journal | Year: 2010
Background. The world is facing an increased threat from new and emerging diseases, and there is concern that climate change will expand areas suitable for transmission of vector borne diseases. The likelihood of vivax malaria returning to the UK was explored using two markedly different modelling approaches. First, a simple temperature-dependent, process-based model of malaria growth transmitted by Anopheles atroparvus, the historical vector of malaria in the UK. Second, a statistical model using logistic-regression was used to predict historical malaria incidence between 1917 and 1918 in the UK, based on environmental and demographic data. Using findings from these models and saltmarsh distributions, future risk maps for malaria in the UK were produced based on UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. Results. The process-based model of climate suitability showed good correspondence with historical records of malaria cases. An analysis of the statistical models showed that mean temperature of the warmest month of the year was the major factor explaining the distribution of malaria, further supporting the use of the temperature-driven processed-based model. The risk maps indicate that large areas of central and southern England could support malaria transmission today and could increase in extent in the future. Confidence in these predictions is increased by the concordance between the processed-based and statistical models. Conclusion. Although the future climate in the UK is favourable for the transmission of vivax malaria, the future risk of locally transmitted malaria is considered low because of low vector biting rates and the low probability of vectors feeding on a malaria-infected person. © 2010 Lindsay et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Harvey C.A.,Center for Applied Biodiversity Science |
Dickson B.,World Conservation Monitoring Center |
Kormos C.,WILD Inc
Conservation Letters | Year: 2010
The United Nations climate negotiations on reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) provide a rare opportunity for conservation of tropical forests and biodiversity. Here, we explore the implications of REDD design and implementation options on biodiversity conservation and ways to link REDD with biodiversity conservation. From both a mitigation and biodiversity perspective, the most important immediate steps are to ensure that REDD is included in the new global climate agreement and maximizes the area of tropical forest conserved. It may also be possible to include guidelines or incentives within a REDD framework or in national implementation to channel funding to areas of high biodiversity. However, if the immediate steps above are not taken first, REDD will reach neither its mitigation nor its biodiversity conservation potential. ©2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc..
Elser J.J.,Arizona State University |
Fagan W.F.,University of Maryland University College |
Kerkhoff A.J.,Kenyon College |
Swenson N.G.,Michigan State University |
And 3 more authors.
New Phytologist | Year: 2010
Biological stoichiometry theory considers the balance of multiple chemical elements in living systems, whereas metabolic scaling theory considers how size affects metabolic properties from cells to ecosystems. We review recent developments integrating biological stoichiometry and metabolic scaling theories in the context of plant ecology and global change. Although vascular plants exhibit wide variation in foliar carbon: nitrogen: phosphorus ratios, they exhibit a higher degree of 'stoichiometric homeostasis' than previously appreciated. Thus, terrestrial carbon: nitrogen: phosphorus stoichiometry will reflect the effects of adjustment to local growth conditions as well as species' replacements. Plant stoichiometry exhibits size scaling, as foliar nutrient concentration decreases with increasing plant size, especially for phosphorus. Thus, small plants have lower nitrogen: phosphorus ratios. Furthermore, foliar nutrient concentration is reflected in other tissues (root, reproductive, support), permitting the development of empirical models of production that scale from tissue to whole-plant levels. Plant stoichiometry exhibits large-scale macroecological patterns, including stronger latitudinal trends and environmental correlations for phosphorus concentration (relative to nitrogen) and a positive correlation between nutrient concentrations and geographic range size. Given this emerging knowledge of how plant nutrients respond to environmental variables and are connected to size, the effects of global change factors (such as carbon dioxide, temperature, nitrogen deposition) can be better understood. © The Authors (2010). Journal compilation © New Phytologist Trust (2010).
Wendland K.J.,Center for Applied Biodiversity Science |
Honzak M.,Center for Applied Biodiversity Science |
Portela R.,Center for Applied Biodiversity Science |
Vitale B.,Center for Environmental Leadership in Business |
And 2 more authors.
Ecological Economics | Year: 2010
Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) are generating a lot of attention among conservationists because they have the potential to create new funding opportunities for biodiversity protection and other ecosystem services that contribute to human well-being. A number of recent publications have suggested ways to target and implement PES projects in order to maximize their cost-effectiveness and efficiency, and the Heredia Declaration (this issue) sets forth a list of agreed-upon principles concerning the use of PES schemes. One of those principles concerns the "bundling" of joint products of intact ecosystems in PES schemes in order to maximize the benefits to society. There have been several recent studies focusing on the degree of overlap between biodiversity and other ecosystem services and therefore the opportunities and constraints to bundling these services. Building on this idea, the bulk of this paper focuses on developing a method for selecting sites for PES where the main interest is to bundle biodiversity with other ecosystem services. We focus our analysis on Madagascar, a country with globally important biodiversity that is also beginning to explore the utility of PES as a conservation mechanism. Specifically, we assess the opportunities for bundling biodiversity conservation with carbon and water services at the national scale and identify where using PES to protect these areas of multiple benefits would be most cost-effective and efficient. This analysis identifies almost 30,000 km2 - out of 134,301 km2 - of natural habitat that could potentially meet biodiversity conservation goals and protect additional ecosystem services through a PES scheme. One of the places identified by our methodology corresponds to an ongoing conservation project that has already begun using payments from carbon emission reductions to protect standing forests and restore important biodiversity corridors - the Ankeniheny-Mantadia-Zahamena Biodiversity Conservation and Restoration Project. This project site was selected for its high biodiversity and carbon values, lending credibility to our spatial targeting methodology and providing a case study to draw insights on how multiple-benefit PES schemes can be implemented in biodiversity "hotspots". In the discussion section of this paper we draw on experiences from this project to consider how many of the principles outlined in the Heredia Declaration affect implementation of PES schemes in Madagascar, providing lessons for similar countries experimenting with PES for biodiversity conservation. © 2008 Elsevier B.V.
Burn M.J.,University of Edinburgh |
Burn M.J.,University of the West Indies |
Mayle F.E.,University of Edinburgh |
Killeen T.J.,Center for Applied Biodiversity Science |
Killeen T.J.,Private University of Santa Cruz de la Sierra
Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology | Year: 2010
An ongoing controversy in Amazonian palaeoecology is the manner in which Amazonian rainforest communities have responded to environmental change over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Much of this controversy results from an inability to identify the floristic heterogeneity exhibited by rainforest communities within fossil pollen records. We apply multivariate (Principal Components Analysis) and classification (Unweighted Pair Group with Arithmetic Mean Agglomerative Classification) techniques to floral-biometric, modern pollen trap and lake sediment pollen data situated within different rainforest communities in the tropical lowlands of Amazonian Bolivia. Modern pollen rain analyses from artificial pollen traps show that evergreen terra firme (well-drained), evergreen terra firme liana, evergreen seasonally inundated, and evergreen riparian rainforests may be readily differentiated, floristically and palynologically. Analogue matching techniques, based on Euclidean distance measures, are employed to compare these pollen signatures with surface sediment pollen assemblages from five lakes: Laguna Bella Vista, Laguna Chaplin, and Laguna Huachi situated within the Madeira-Tapajós moist forest ecoregion, and Laguna Isirere and Laguna Loma Suarez, which are situated within forest patches in the Beni savanna ecoregion. The same numerical techniques are used to compare rainforest pollen trap signatures with the fossil pollen record of Laguna Chaplin.Pollen assemblages of pollen traps situated within riparian forest communities are most similar to surface sediment samples from Lagunas Bella Vista and Chaplin. Pollen derived from terra firme forests also comprises a significant proportion of these assemblages. Together, these pollen spectra successfully identify riparian and terra firme rainforest communities surrounding the two lakes today. Close similarity between terra firme liana pollen trap assemblages and surface samples obtained from Laguna Huachi, a lake surrounded by relatively undisturbed liana forest, suggests liana forest pollen rain may also be identified within lake sediment records. Pollen spectra obtained from surface sediment samples from lakes situated within gallery forests of the Beni savanna ecoregion are significantly different to those obtained from the Madeira-Tapajós ecoregion, reflecting their different floristic compositions. By applying our findings to the previously published Laguna Chaplin Quaternary pollen record, we show that differentiation between riparian and terra firme rainforest pollen assemblages can lead to more robust and detailed palaeovegetation reconstructions than has hitherto been possible. © 2010 Elsevier B.V.
Schutte V.G.W.,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill |
Schutte V.G.W.,University of Georgia |
Selig E.R.,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill |
Selig E.R.,Center for Applied Biodiversity Science |
Bruno J.F.,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Marine Ecology Progress Series | Year: 2010
Coral cover has declined on reefs worldwide with particularly acute losses in the Caribbean. Despite our awareness of the broad-scale patterns and timing of Caribbean coral loss, there is little published information on: (1) finer-scale, subregional patterns over the last 35 yr, (2) regional-scale trends since 2001, and (3) macroalgal cover changes. We analyzed the spatiotemporal trends of benthic coral reef communities in the Caribbean using quantitative data from 3777 coral cover surveys of 1962 reefs from 1971 to 2006 and 2247 macroalgal cover surveys of 875 reefs from 1977 to 2006. A subset of 376 reefs was surveyed more than once (monitored). The largest 1 yr decline in coral cover occurred from 1980 to 1981, corresponding with the beginning of the Caribbean-wide Acropora spp. white band disease outbreak. Our results suggest that, regionally, coral cover has been relatively stable since this event (i.e. from 1982 to 2006). The largest increase in macroalgal cover was in 1986, 3 yr after the regional die-off of the urchin grazer Diadema antillarum began. Subsequently, macroalgal cover declined in 1987 and has been stable since then. Regional mean (±1 SE) macroalgal cover from 2001 to 2005 was 15.3 ± 0.4% (n = 1821 surveys). Caribbeanwide mean (±1 SE) coral cover was 16.0 ± 0.4% (n = 1547) for this same time period. Both macroalgal and coral cover varied significantly among subregions from 2001 to 2005, with the lowest coral cover in the Florida Keys and the highest coral cover in the Gulf of Mexico. Spatio-temporal patterns from the subset of monitored reefs are concordant with the conclusions drawn from the entire database. Our results suggest that coral and macroalgal cover on Caribbean reef benthic communities has changed relatively little since the mid-1980s. © Inter-Research 2010, www.int-res.com.
Selig E.R.,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill |
Selig E.R.,Center for Applied Biodiversity Science |
Bruno J.F.,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
PLoS ONE | Year: 2010
Background: A variety of human activities have led to the recent global decline of reef-building corals [1,2]. The ecological, social, and economic value of coral reefs has made them an international conservation priority [2,3]. The success of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in restoring fish populations  has led to optimism that they could also benefit corals by indirectly reducing threats like overfishing, which cause coral degradation and mortality [2,5]. However, the general efficacy of MPAs in increasing coral reef resilience has never been tested. Methodology/Principal Findings: We compiled a global database of 8534 live coral cover surveys from 1969-2006 to compare annual changes in coral cover inside 310 MPAs to unprotected areas. We found that on average, coral cover within MPAs remained constant, while coral cover on unprotected reefs declined. Although the short-term differences between unprotected and protected reefs are modest, they could be significant over the long-term if the effects are temporally consistent. Our results also suggest that older MPAs were generally more effective in preventing coral loss. Initially, coral cover continued to decrease after MPA establishment. Several years later, however, rates of coral cover decline slowed and then stabilized so that further losses stopped. Conclusions/Significance: These findings suggest that MPAs can be a useful tool not only for fisheries management, but also for maintaining coral cover. Furthermore, the benefits of MPAs appear to increase with the number of years since MPA establishment. Given the time needed to maximize MPA benefits, there should be increased emphasis on implementing new MPAs and strengthening the enforcement of existing MPAs. © 2010 Selig, Bruno.
Karyn T.,Center for Applied Biodiversity Science |
Williams J.W.,University of Wisconsin - Madison
Ecological Applications | Year: 2010
Assessing the potential impacts of 21st-century climate change on species distributions and ecological processes requires climate scenarios with sufficient spatial resolution to represent the varying effects of climate change across heterogeneous physical, biological, and cultural landscapes. Unfortunately, the native resolutions of global climate models (usually approximately 2° X 2° or coarser) are inadequate for modeling future changes in, e.g., biodiversity, species distributions, crop yields, and water resources. Also, 21st-century climate projections must be debiased prior to use, i.e., corrected for systematic offsets between modeled representations and observations of present climates. We have downscaled future temperature and precipitation projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) CMIP3 multi-model data set to 10-minute resolution and debiased these simulations using the change-factor approach and observational data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). These downscaled data sets are available online and include monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, for 24 climate models and the AlB, A2, and B1 emission scenarios. This paper describes the downscaling method and compares the downscaled and native-resolution simulations. Sharp differences between the original and downscaled data sets are apparent at regional to continental scales, particularly for temperature in mountainous areas and in areas with substantial differences between observed and simulated 20th-century climatologies. Although these data sets in principle could be downscaled further, a key practical limitation is the density of observational networks, particularly for precipitation-related variables in tropical mountainous regions. These downscaled data sets can be used for a variety of climate-impact assessments, including assessments of 21st-century climate-change impacts on biodiversity and species distributions. ©2010 by the Ecological Society of America.
Treves A.,University of Wisconsin - Madison |
Jones S.M.,University of Wisconsin - Madison |
Jones S.M.,Center for Applied Biodiversity Science
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment | Year: 2010
Labels on products are meant to influence consumer behavior. Consumers buying products labeled as ecofriendly may hope to help conserve the environment, but eco-labels vary in their claims and credibility. We define three types of wildlife-friendly eco-labels, according to their potential to conserve wildlife, and describe barriers to convincing consumers of their claims. Eco-labels we term "Supportive" donate revenues to conservation organizations and are, at best, indirect interventions, opaque to consumer scrutiny. "Persuasive" eco-labels certify manufacturing/collection practices, under the assumption that wildlife will benefit as a result. "Protective" eco-labels certify wildlife conservation, which can gain the highest level of credibility, but require the greatest verification effort. Proving that producers conserved wildlife is costly, time-consuming, and technically challenging, because wild animals ignore property boundaries and experience mortality and dispersal irrespective of people, but their population dynamics often obscure the role of human activities and economic practices. Nevertheless, wild animals are among the most inspiring and marketable components of the environment. © The Ecological Society of America.
Bode M.,University of Melbourne |
Probert W.,University of Queensland |
Turner W.R.,Center for Applied Biodiversity Science |
Wilson K.A.,University of Queensland |
Venter O.,University of Queensland
Conservation Biology | Year: 2011
There has been a dramatic increase in the number of conservation organizations worldwide. It is now common for multiple organizations to operate in the same landscape in pursuit of different conservation goals. New objectives, such as maintenance of ecosystem services, will attract additional funding and new organizations to conservation. Systematic conservation planning helps in the design of spatially explicit management actions that optimally conserve multiple landscape features (e.g., species, ecosystems, or ecosystem services). But the methods used in its application implicitly assume that a single actor implements the optimal plan. We investigated how organizational behavior and conservation outcomes are affected by the presence of autonomous implementing organizations with different objectives. We used simulation models and game theory to explore how alternative behaviors (e.g., organizations acting independently or explicitly cooperating) affected an organization's ability to protect their feature of interest, and investigated how the distribution of features in the landscape influenced organizations' attitudes toward cooperation. Features with highly correlated spatial distributions, although typically considered an opportunity for mutually beneficial conservation planning, can lead to organizational interactions that result in lower levels of protection. These detrimental outcomes can be avoided by organizations that cooperate when acquiring land. Nevertheless, for cooperative purchases to benefit both organizations' objectives, each must forgo the protection of land parcels that they would consider to be of high conservation value. Transaction costs incurred during cooperation and the sources of conservation funding could facilitate or hinder cooperative behavior. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.