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Caron L.-P.,Catalan Institute of Climate science | Boudreault M.,University of Quebec at Montreal | Camargo S.J.,Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory
Journal of Climate

Variability in tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific basin has been linked to a wide range of climate factors, yet the dominant factors driving this variability have yet to be identified. Using Poisson regressions and a track clustering method, the authors analyze and compare the climate influence on cyclone activity in this region. The authors show that local sea surface temperature and upper-ocean heat content as well as large-scale conditions in the northern Atlantic are the dominant influence in modulating eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The results also support previous findings suggesting that the influence of the Atlantic Ocean occurs through changes in dynamical conditions over the eastern Pacific. Using model selection algorithms, the authors then proceed to construct a statistical model of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The various model selection techniques used agree in selecting one predictor from the Atlantic (northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature) and one predictor from the Pacific (relative sea surface temperature) to represent the best possible model. Finally, we show that this simple model could have predicted the anomalously high level of activity observed in 2014. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Source

Barriendos M.,Catalan Institute of Climate science | Barriendos M.,University of Barcelona | Ruiz-Bellet J.L.,University of Lleida | Tuset J.,RIUS Fluvial Dynamics Research Group | And 4 more authors.
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Prediflood is a database of historical floods that occurred in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula), between the 11th century and the 21st century. More than 2700 flood cases are catalogued, and more than 1100 flood events. This database contains information acquired under modern historiographical criteria and it is, therefore, suitable for use in multidisciplinary flood analysis techniques, such as meteorological or hydraulic reconstructions. Source

Garcia-Diez M.,University of Cantabria | Garcia-Diez M.,Catalan Institute of Climate science | Fernandez J.,University of Cantabria | San-Martin D.,Predictia Intelligent Data Solutions | And 2 more authors.
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Limited area models (LAMs) are widely used tools to downscale the wind speed forecasts issued by general circulation models. However, only a few studies have systematically analyzed the value added by the LAMs to the coarser-resolution-model wind. The goal of the present work is to investigate how added value depends on the resolution of the driving global model. With this aim, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to downscale three different global datasets (GFS, ERA-Interim, and NCEP-NCAR) to a 9-km-resolution grid for a 1-yr period. Model results were compared with a large set of surface observations, including land station and offshore buoy data. Substantial biases were found at this resolution over mountainous terrain, and a slight modification to the subgrid orographic drag parameterization was introduced to alleviate the problem. It was found that, at this resolution, WRF is able to produce significant added value with respect to the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and ERA-Interim but only a small amount of added value with respect to GFS forecasts. Results suggest that, as model resolution increases, traditional skill scores tend to saturate. Thus, adding value to high-resolution global models becomes significantly more difficult. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Source

Johnson C.,University of Edinburgh | Carter A.,University of Edinburgh | Bethune I.,University of Edinburgh | Statford K.,University of Edinburgh | And 6 more authors.
Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)

This article gives an overview of the DECI (Distributed European Computing Initiative) Minisymposium held within the PARA 2012 conference taking the form of a short set of articles for each of the talks presented. The work presented here was carried out under either the DEISA (receiving funding through the EU FP7 project RI-22291) or PRACE-2IP (receiving funding from the EU FP7 Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no RI-283493) projects. © 2013 Springer-Verlag. Source

Meehl G.A.,U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research | Goddard L.,International Research Institute for Climate and Society | Boer G.,Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis | Burgman R.,Florida International University | And 25 more authors.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

The rapidly evolving field of decadal climate prediction, using initialized climate models to produce time-evolving predictions of regional climate, is producing new results for predictions, predictability, and prediction skill. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Source

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