Bouma M.J.,London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine |
Bouma M.J.,Catalan Institute of Climate science |
Siraj A.S.,University of Notre Dame |
Rodo X.,Catalan Institute of Climate science |
And 2 more authors.
Tropical Medicine and International Health | Year: 2016
Objective: Tropical highland malaria intensifies and shifts to higher altitudes during exceptionally warm years. Above-normal temperatures associated with El Niño during boreal winter months (December–March) may intensify malaria in East African highlands. We assessed the malaria risk for Oromia, the largest region of Ethiopia with around 30 million inhabitants. Methods: Simple linear regression and spatial analyses were used to associate sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific and surface temperatures in Ethiopia with annual malaria risk in Oromia, based on confirmed cases of malaria between 1982 and 2005. Results: A strong association (R2 = 0.6, P < 0.001) was identified between malaria and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, anticipating a 70% increase in malaria risk for the period from August 2016 to July 2017. This forecast was quantitatively supported by elevated land surface temperatures (+1.6 °C) in December 2015. When more station data become available and mean March 2016 temperatures from meteorological stations can be taken into account, a more robust prediction can be issued. Conclusion: An epidemic warning is issued for Oromia, Ethiopia, between August 2016 and July 2017 and may include the pre-July short malaria season. Similar relationships reported for Madagascar point to an epidemic risk for all East African highlands with around 150 million people. Preparedness for this high risk period would include pre-emptive intradomestic spraying with insecticides, adequate stocking of antimalarials, and spatial extension of diagnostic capacity and more frequent reporting to enable a rapid public health response when and where required. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Barriendos M.,Catalan Institute of Climate science |
Barriendos M.,University of Barcelona |
Ruiz-Bellet J.L.,University of Lleida |
Tuset J.,RIUS Fluvial Dynamics Research Group |
And 4 more authors.
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | Year: 2014
Prediflood is a database of historical floods that occurred in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula), between the 11th century and the 21st century. More than 2700 flood cases are catalogued, and more than 1100 flood events. This database contains information acquired under modern historiographical criteria and it is, therefore, suitable for use in multidisciplinary flood analysis techniques, such as meteorological or hydraulic reconstructions.
Meehl G.A.,U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research |
Goddard L.,International Research Institute for Climate and Society |
Boer G.,Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis |
Burgman R.,Florida International University |
And 25 more authors.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society | Year: 2014
The rapidly evolving field of decadal climate prediction, using initialized climate models to produce time-evolving predictions of regional climate, is producing new results for predictions, predictability, and prediction skill. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.
PubMed | University of Notre Dame, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of Chicago and Catalan Institute of Climate science
Type: Journal Article | Journal: Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH | Year: 2016
Tropical highland malaria intensifies and shifts to higher altitudes during exceptionally warm years. Above-normal temperatures associated with El Nio during boreal winter months (December-March) may intensify malaria in East African highlands. We assessed the malaria risk for Oromia, the largest region of Ethiopia with around 30 million inhabitants.Simple linear regression and spatial analyses were used to associate sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific and surface temperatures in Ethiopia with annual malaria risk in Oromia, based on confirmed cases of malaria between 1982 and 2005.A strong association (RAn epidemic warning is issued for Oromia, Ethiopia, between August 2016 and July 2017 and may include the pre-July short malaria season. Similar relationships reported for Madagascar point to an epidemic risk for all East African highlands with around 150 million people. Preparedness for this high risk period would include pre-emptive intradomestic spraying with insecticides, adequate stocking of antimalarials, and spatial extension of diagnostic capacity and more frequent reporting to enable a rapid public health response when and where required.
Sanchez-Garcia L.,University of Stockholm |
Sanchez-Garcia L.,Catalan Institute of Climate Science |
Cato I.,Geological Survey of Sweden |
Cato I.,Gothenburg University |
Gustafsson O.,University of Stockholm
Global Biogeochemical Cycles | Year: 2012
To test the hypothesis that ocean margin sediments are a key final repository in the large-scale biogeospheric cycling of soot black carbon (soot-BC), an extensive survey was conducted along the ∼2,000 km stretch of the Swedish Continental Shelf (SCS). The soot-BC content in the 120 spatially distributed SCS sediments was 0.180.13 0.26% dw (median with interquartile ranges), corresponding to ∼5% of total organic carbon. Using side-scan sonar constraints to estimate the areal fraction of postglacial clay sediments that are accumulation bottoms (15% of SCS), the soot-BC inventory in the SCS mixed surface sediment was estimated at ∼4,000 Gg. Combining this with radiochronological constraints on sediment mass accumulation fluxes, the soot-BC sink on the SCS was ∼300 Gg/yr, which yielded an area-extrapolated estimate for the Northern European Shelf (NES) of ∼1,100 Gg/yr. This sediment soot-BC sink is ∼50 times larger than the river discharge fluxes of soot-BC to these coastal waters, however, of similar magnitude as estimates of atmospheric soot-BC emission from the upwind European continent. While large uncertainties remain regarding the large-scale to global BC cycle, this study combines with two previous investigations to suggest that continental shelf sediments are a major final repository of atmospheric soot-BC. Future progress on the soot-BC cycle and how it interacts with the full carbon cycle is likely to benefit from 14C determinations of the sedimentary soot-BC and similar extensive studies of coastal sediment in complementary regimes such as off heavily soot-BC-producing areas in S and E Asia and on the large pan-Arctic shelf. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.
Cash B.A.,Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies |
Rodo X.,Catalan Institute of Climate science |
Kinter J.L.,Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies |
Yunus M.,International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research
Journal of Climate | Year: 2010
Recent studies arising from both statistical analysis and dynamical disease models indicate that there is a link between the incidence of cholera, a paradigmatic waterborne bacterial illness endemic to Bangladesh, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Cholera incidence typically increases following boreal winter El Niño events for the period 1973-2001. Observational and model analyses find that Bangladesh summer rainfall is enhanced following winter El Niño events, providing a plausible physical link between El Niño and cholera incidence. However, rainfall and cholera incidence do not increase following every winter El Niño event. Substantial variations in Bangladesh precipitation also occur in simulations in which identical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are prescribed in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Bangladesh summer precipitation is thus not uniquely determined by forcing from the tropical Pacific, with significant implications for predictions of cholera risk. Nonparametric statistical analysis is used to identify regions of SST anomalies associated with variations in Bangladesh rainfall in an ensemble of pacemaker simulations. The authors find that differences in the response of Bangladesh summer precipitation to winter El Niño events are strongly associated with the persistence of warm SST anomalies in the central Pacific. Also there are significant differences in the SST patterns associated with positive and negative Bangladesh rainfall anomalies, indicating that the response is not fully linear. SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean alsomodulate the influence of the tropical Pacific, with colder IndianOcean SST tending to enhance Bangladesh precipitation relative to warm Indian Ocean SST for identical conditions in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. This influence is not fully linear. Forecasts of Bangladesh rainfall and cholera risk may thus be improved by considering the Niño-3 and Niño-4 indices separately, rather than the Niño-3.4 index alone. Additional skillmay also be gained by incorporating information on the southeast Indian Ocean and by updating the forecast with information on the evolution of the SST anomalies into spring. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.
Caron L.-P.,Catalan Institute of Climate science |
Boudreault M.,University of Quebec at Montréal |
Camargo S.J.,Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory
Journal of Climate | Year: 2015
Variability in tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific basin has been linked to a wide range of climate factors, yet the dominant factors driving this variability have yet to be identified. Using Poisson regressions and a track clustering method, the authors analyze and compare the climate influence on cyclone activity in this region. The authors show that local sea surface temperature and upper-ocean heat content as well as large-scale conditions in the northern Atlantic are the dominant influence in modulating eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The results also support previous findings suggesting that the influence of the Atlantic Ocean occurs through changes in dynamical conditions over the eastern Pacific. Using model selection algorithms, the authors then proceed to construct a statistical model of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The various model selection techniques used agree in selecting one predictor from the Atlantic (northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature) and one predictor from the Pacific (relative sea surface temperature) to represent the best possible model. Finally, we show that this simple model could have predicted the anomalously high level of activity observed in 2014. © 2015 American Meteorological Society.
Caron L.-P.,Catalan Institute of Climate science |
Hermanson L.,UK Met Office |
Doblas-Reyes F.J.,Catalan Institute of Climate science |
Doblas-Reyes F.J.,Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies
Geophysical Research Letters | Year: 2015
There are strong decadal variations in Atlantic hurricane activity, with an active period in the 1950s and 1960s, a quiescent period from the 1970s through the early 1990s and a resurgence in activity since the mid-1990s. Using an index that relies on subpolar gyre temperature and subtropical sea level pressure, two quantities with links to hurricane activity, we show that it is possible to construct reliable 5 year mean forecasts of both basin-wide tropical cyclone activity as well as wind energy associated with hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. coastline. Furthermore, the index is capable of reproducing the major decadal shifts in activity observed over the last 50 years. This is the first time that a forecast system shows significant skill of a landfalling hurricane characteristic at the multiannual time scale and, as such, shows great promise as a valuable climate service product. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Garcia-Diez M.,University of Cantabria |
Garcia-Diez M.,Catalan Institute of Climate science |
Fernandez J.,University of Cantabria |
San-Martin D.,Predictia Intelligent Data Solutions |
And 2 more authors.
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology | Year: 2015
Limited area models (LAMs) are widely used tools to downscale the wind speed forecasts issued by general circulation models. However, only a few studies have systematically analyzed the value added by the LAMs to the coarser-resolution-model wind. The goal of the present work is to investigate how added value depends on the resolution of the driving global model. With this aim, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to downscale three different global datasets (GFS, ERA-Interim, and NCEP-NCAR) to a 9-km-resolution grid for a 1-yr period. Model results were compared with a large set of surface observations, including land station and offshore buoy data. Substantial biases were found at this resolution over mountainous terrain, and a slight modification to the subgrid orographic drag parameterization was introduced to alleviate the problem. It was found that, at this resolution, WRF is able to produce significant added value with respect to the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and ERA-Interim but only a small amount of added value with respect to GFS forecasts. Results suggest that, as model resolution increases, traditional skill scores tend to saturate. Thus, adding value to high-resolution global models becomes significantly more difficult. © 2015 American Meteorological Society.
Massonnet F.,Catholic University of Louvain |
Massonnet F.,Catalan Institute of Climate science |
Guemas V.,Catalan Institute of Climate science |
Guemas V.,French National Center of Weather Research |
And 3 more authors.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society | Year: 2015
The record maximum of Antarctic sea ice resulted chiefly from anomalous winds that transported cold air masses away from the Antarctic continent, enhancing thermodynamic sea ice production far offshore. © 2015 American Meteorological Society.