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Chen K.,CAS Institute of Policy and Management | Guan J.,Fudan University
Journal of Informetrics | Year: 2011

The three important research domains, nanotechnology, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, integratedly breed a promising multidisciplinary domain in the post-genomic age, which was recently defined by the term "nanobiopharmaceuticals" In this paper, we firstly investigate its general development profiles, and then implement cross-country comparisons in its research performances, with the focus on the world share, relative research effort, impact and quality of five productive countries. Furthermore, from the science mapping perspective, we build the co-word and co-citation networks respectively for detecting its intellectual structure as well as evolution footprints of intellectual turning points. The growth examinations based on the datasets from WoS, MEDLINE and BIOSIS Review confirm the exponential growth of publications and citations in nanobiopharm-research. The cross-country comparisons show that USA is the leading country, and China is an up-and-coming contributor. The visual mapping structures by co-occurrence analyses show that nanobiopharm-research is currently focused on the drug development for improving biodistribution, bioavailability and pharmacokinetics, and the drug delivery for improving delivery of existing drugs. Some pivot publications is identified by CiteSpace, which work as structural holes, research fronts and intellectual bases for the nanobiopharm-research development in the given time window. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Zhu L.,CAS Institute of Policy and Management
Computers and Industrial Engineering | Year: 2012

The investment of nuclear power has several uncertainties. This paper establishes a nuclear power investment evaluation model by employing real options theory with Monte Carlo method to evaluate the value of nuclear power plant from the perspective of power generation enterprises. Several technical and economic uncertainty factors (investment cost, generating cost, electricity prices and nuclear accident) have been taken into account in the model and the model is solved by Least Squares Monte-Carlo (LSM) method. As an application, the model is used to evaluate Sanmen nuclear power plant in Zhejiang province, China. The impacts of three electricity price mechanisms and nuclear power investment cost reduction are investigated and discussed. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ji Q.,CAS Institute of Policy and Management
Computers and Industrial Engineering | Year: 2012

A system analysis approach is proposed to identify the main factors driving international crude oil prices by integrating a partial least squares model, an vector error correction model and the directed acyclic graph method. The different mechanisms driving international crude oil prices during the oil price falling and rising periods are analyzed in three aspects: contemporaneous information transmission mechanism, explanatory power of factors for oil price trend and their contributions to the oil price volatility. The results show that the original mechanism of crude oil markets is destroyed by the 2008 financial crisis and the contemporaneous causality between oil price and various factors are significantly strengthened after crisis. Before the crisis, speculation was the main factor boosting oil price volatility in the contemporaneous and short run, while fundamental factors played important roles in the long run. After the crisis, spillover effect among different markets exhibits more obvious. Stock market, exchange rate market and commodity market make greater contribution, while US dollar index is the main factor affecting oil price volatility in the short and long run. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Zhu L.,CAS Institute of Policy and Management | Zhu L.,Hefei University of Technology | Fan Y.,CAS Institute of Policy and Management
Applied Energy | Year: 2011

This paper establishes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model based on real options theory considering uncertainties from the existing thermal power generating cost, carbon price, thermal power with CCS generating cost, and investment in CCS technology deployment. The model aims to evaluate the value of the cost saving effect and amount of CO2 emission reduction through investing in newly-built thermal power with CCS technology to replace existing thermal power in a given period from the perspective of power generation enterprises. The model is solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. Since the model could be used as a policy analysis tool, China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment through scenario analysis. The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. Thus, there is an important trade off for policy makers between reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the interests of power generation enterprises. The research presented would be useful for CCS technology evaluation and related policy-making. © 2011.

Liu Y.,CAS Institute of Policy and Management | Lu Y.,Australian National University
Applied Energy | Year: 2015

As an important policy instrument for climate mitigation, the carbon tax policy design and its consequent social-economic impact calls for more research. In this paper, a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model - CASIPM-GE model is applied to explore the impact of a carbon tax and different tax revenue recycling schemes on China's economy. Simulation results show that the carbon tax is effective to reduce carbon emissions with mild impact on China's macro economy. In particular, a production tax deduction can be used to recycle the carbon tax revenue if the government wants to reduce the cost of a carbon tax; however, a consumption tax deduction may help the economy to restructure and may benefit the long-run emissions reduction. In terms of industrial output, most industries are negatively affected; sectors with large share of exports are subjected to negative shocks if there is consumption tax deduction financed by the carbon tax revenue. The study suggests that carbon revenue recycling scheme is important in designing the carbon tax policy: a well-designed scheme can help reduce the cost of a carbon tax. © 2014.

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