Carl Friedrich von Weizsacker Center for Science and Peace Research

Hamburg, Germany

Carl Friedrich von Weizsacker Center for Science and Peace Research

Hamburg, Germany

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Singer C.E.,University of Illinois at Urbana - Champaign | Von Brevern H.,Carl Friedrich von Weizsacker Center for Science and Peace Research
Nuclear Technology | Year: 2011

Formulas are given for extrapolating uranium prices that could result from future trajectories for the cumulative use of native uranium. The logarithm of the extrapolated price is given by a monotonically increasing trend curve plus a sinusoidal oscillation calibrated to historical data. The trend curve as a function of cumulative extraction of native uranium accounts both for accessing lower ore grades and for exploiting moredifficult-to-access richer ores as the more easily accessed richer ores are depleted. Accounting for both of these effects, the logarithm of the monotonie price trend is linear in the logarithm of cumulative extraction of native uranium, with least variance between observations and data of a power-law slope of 1/4.5 up to the point where a limit on the accessibility of the remaining highest-grade ores is reached. (However, a slope of 1/5.6 gives an almost equally good fit.) As an example, a ratio 4 of maximum depth of other mines to maximum depth of current uranium mines is used as a measure of the accessibility limit. This limit is first reached when the background trend curve uranium price reaches $143/kg of elemental uranium, in U.S. dollars inflation adjusted to year 2007 prices ($US2007). Thereafter, the accessibility limit gradually reduces the cumulative amount of native uranium extracted at a given cost below that computed from the power law, multiplying it by a factor of 0.59 when the trend price reaches 300 $US2007/ kg. Increases of nuclear energy produced per kilogram of uranium mined with increasing uranium costs are also accounted for. A fraction of global nuclear energy users can develop a higher nuclear energy production rate per kilogram of mined uranium, e.g., by reusing the fissile material in spent fuel. Resulting cumulative cost changes as a function of cumulative nuclear energy use are presented in graphical and tabular form for a variety of input parameters. resource sustainability, uranium supply, nuclear fuel economics.


Kalinowski M.B.,Carl Friedrich von Weizsacker Center for Science and Peace Research | Axelsson A.,International Atomic Energy Agency | Bean M.,Radiation Protection Bureau | Blanchard X.,CEA DAM Ile-de-France | And 13 more authors.
Pure and Applied Geophysics | Year: 2010

A global monitoring system for atmospheric xenon radioactivity is being established as part of the International Monitoring System that will verify compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) once the treaty has entered into force. This paper studies isotopic activity ratios to support the interpretation of observed atmospheric concentrations of 135Xe, 133mXe, 133Xe and 131mXe. The goal is to distinguish nuclear explosion sources from civilian releases. Simulations of nuclear explosions and reactors, empirical data for both test and reactor releases as well as observations by measurement stations of the International Noble Gas Experiment (INGE) are used to provide a proof of concept for the isotopic ratio based method for source discrimination. © 2010 Birkhäuser Verlag Basel/Switzerland.


Kalinowski M.B.,Carl Friedrich von Weizsacker Center for Science and Peace Research | Liao Y.-Y.,Carl Friedrich von Weizsacker Center for Science and Peace Research
Pure and Applied Geophysics | Year: 2014

Both radioxenon and radioiodine are possible indicators for a nuclear explosion. Therefore, they will be, together with other relevant radionuclides, globally monitored by the International Monitoring System in order to verify compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty once the treaty has entered into force. This paper studies the temporal development of radioxenon and radioiodine activities with two different assumptions on fractionation during the release from an underground test. In the first case, only the noble gases are released, in the second case, radioiodine is released as well while the precursors remain underground. For the second case, the simulated curves of activity ratios are compared to prompt and delayed atmospheric radioactivity releases from underground nuclear tests at Nevada as a function of the time of atmospheric air sampling for concentration measurements of 135I, 133I and 131I. In addition, the effect of both fractionation cases on the isotopic activity ratios is shown in the four-isotope-plot (with 135Xe, 133mXe, 133Xe and 131mXe) that can be utilized for distinguishing nuclear explosion sources from civilian releases. © 2012 Springer Basel AG.


Kalinowski M.B.,Carl Friedrich von Weizsacker Center for Science and Peace Research | Liao Y.-Y.,Carl Friedrich von Weizsacker Center for Science and Peace Research | Pistner C.,Oko Institute e.V.
Pure and Applied Geophysics | Year: 2014

A global monitoring system for atmospheric radioactivity is being established as part of the International Monitoring System that will verify compliance with the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty (CTBT) once the treaty has entered into force. This paper studies isotopic activity ratios to support the interpretation of observed atmospheric concentrations of 135I, 133I and 131I. The goal is to distinguish nuclear explosion sources from civilian releases. Simulated nuclear explosion releases along with observational data of radioiodine releases from historic nuclear explosions at the Nevada Test Site are compared to simulated light water reactor releases in order to provide a proof of concept for source discrimination based on radioiodine isotopic activity ratios. © 2012 Springer Basel AG.


Schoppner M.,Third University of Rome | Kalinowski M.,Carl Friedrich von Weizsacker Center for Science and Peace Research | Plastino W.,Third University of Rome | Budano A.,Third University of Rome | And 4 more authors.
Pure and Applied Geophysics | Year: 2014

The general characterisation of the global radioxenon background is of interest for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Since the major background sources are only a few isotope production facilities, their source term has an emphasized influence on the worldwide monitoring process of radioxenon. In this work, two different datasets of source terms are applied through atmospheric transport modelling, to estimate the concentration at two radioxenon detection stations in Germany and Sweden. One dataset relies on estimated average annual emissions; the other includes monthly resolved measurements from an isotope production facility in Fleurus, Belgium. The quality of the estimations is then validated by comparing them to the radioxenon concentrations that have been sampled at two monitoring stations over the course of 1 year. © 2012 Springer Basel AG.

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