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Weir H.K.,Centers for Disease Control and Prevention | Thompson T.D.,Centers for Disease Control and Prevention | Soman A.,Northrop Grumman | Moller B.,Cancer Registry of Norway | Leadbetter S.,Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Cancer | Year: 2015

BACKGROUND The overall age-standardized cancer incidence rate continues to decline whereas the number of cases diagnosed each year increases. Predicting cancer incidence can help to anticipate future resource needs, evaluate primary prevention strategies, and inform research. METHODS Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were used to estimate the number of cancers (all sites) resulting from changes in population risk, age, and size. The authors projected to 2020 nationwide age-standardized incidence rates and cases (including the top 23 cancers). RESULTS Since 1975, incident cases increased among white individuals, primarily caused by an aging white population, and among black individuals, primarily caused by an increasing black population. Between 2010 and 2020, it is expected that overall incidence rates (proxy for risk) will decrease slightly among black men and stabilize in other groups. By 2020, the authors predict annual cancer cases (all races, all sites) to increase among men by 24.1% (-3.2% risk and 27.3% age/growth) to >1 million cases, and by 20.6% among women (1.2% risk and 19.4% age/growth) to >900,000 cases. The largest increases are expected for melanoma (white individuals); cancers of the prostate, kidney, liver, and urinary bladder in males; and the lung, breast, uterus, and thyroid in females. CONCLUSIONS Overall, the authors predict cancer incidence rates/risk to stabilize for the majority of the population; however, they expect the number of cancer cases to increase by >20%. A greater emphasis on primary prevention and early detection is needed to counter the effect of an aging and growing population on the burden of cancer. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Solheim O.,Norwegian University of Science and Technology | Jakola A.S.,Norwegian University of Science and Technology | Gulati S.,Norwegian University of Science and Technology | Johannesen T.B.,Cancer Registry of Norway
Journal of Neurosurgery | Year: 2012

Object. Surgical mortality is a frequent outcome measure in studies of volume-outcome relationships, and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality has endorsed surgical mortality after craniotomies as an Inpatient Quality Indicator. Still, the frequency and causes of 30-day mortality after neurosurgical procedures have not been much explored. The authors sought to study the frequency and possible causes of death following primary intracranial tumor operations. They also sought to explore a possible predictive value of perioperative mortality rates from neurosurgical centers in relation to long-term survival. Methods. Using population-based data from the Norwegian cancer registry, the authors identified 15,918 primary operations for primary CNS tumors treated in Norway in the period from August 1955 through December 2008. Patients were followed up until death, emigration, or September 2009. Causes of mortality as indicated on death certificates were studied. Factors associated with an increased risk of perioperative death were identified. Results. The overall risk of perioperative death after first-time surgery for primary intracranial tumors is currently 2.2% and has decreased over the last decades. An age ≥ 70 years and histopathological entities with poor long-term prognoses are risk factors. Overlapping lesions are also associated with excess risk, indicating that lesion size or multifocality may matter. The overall risk of perioperative death is also higher in biopsy cases than in resection cases. Perioperative mortality rates of the 4 Norwegian neurosurgical centers were not predictive of their respective long-term survival rates. Conclusions. Although considered surgically related if they occur within the first 30 days of surgery, most early postoperative deaths can happen independent of the handiwork of the operating surgeon or anesthesiologist. Overall prognosis of the disease seems to be a strong predictor of perioperative death-perhaps not surprisingly since the 30-day mortality rate is merely the intonation of the Kaplan-Meier curve. Both referral and treatment policies at a neurosurgical center will therefore markedly affect such early outcomes, but early deaths may not necessarily reflect overall quality of care or long-term results. The low incidence of perioperative death in intracranial tumor surgery also greatly limits the statistical power in comparative analyses, such as between published patient series or between centers and certainly between surgeons. Therefore the authors question the value of perioperative mortality rates as a quality indicator in modern neurosurgery for tumors.

Ronning P.A.,University of Oslo | Helseth E.,University of Oslo | Meling T.R.,University of Oslo | Johannesen T.B.,Cancer Registry of Norway
Neuro-Oncology | Year: 2012

The effect of temozolomide (TMZ) and radiotherapy (RT) in the treatment of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) has been well documented in randomized controlled trials. Here we present our findings on the effect of TMZ added to RT at a population level. The Cancer Registry of Norway was searched for patients with a GBM diagnosis from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2007. Subsequently, the prescriptions registered to these patients were obtained from the Norwegian Prescription Database. The data were analyzed according to era (pre-TMZ introduction or post-TMZ introduction) and according to treatment received. Furthermore, a matching procedure was utilized to reduce the bias between the RT 1 TMZ and RT alone treatments so that the effect of TMZ could be better scrutinized. We identified 1157 GBM patients. The median overall survival (OS), in months, was 8.3 (95% confidence interval: 7.6-9.0) and 10.1 (95% confidence interval: 9.1-11.0) in the pre-TMZ and TMZ eras, respectively (P <.001). By treatment, we found median OS for the control, RT alone, and RT + TMZ groups to be 2.5, 9.0, and 16.2 months, respectively (P <.001). Two-year survival was 0%, 4%, and 25%, respectively. The effect of age on TMZ effect was insignificant. In the matched group analysis, TMZ provided a 7.6-month OS benefit. Our population data reproduce the beneficial effect of TMZ from randomized controlled trials with a median OS of 16.2 months and 25% 2-year survival. © The Author(s) 2012.

Kravdal H.,University of Oslo | Syse A.,Cancer Registry of Norway
BMC Public Health | Year: 2011

Background: Rates of all-cause and cause-specific mortality are higher among unmarried than married individuals. Cancer survival is also poorer in the unmarried population. Recently, some studies have found that the excess all-cause mortality of the unmarried has increased over time, and the same pattern has been shown for some specific causes of death. The objective of this study was to investigate whether there has been a similar change over time in marital status differences in cancer survival. Methods. Discrete-time hazard regression models for cancer deaths among more than 440 000 women and men diagnosed with cancer 1970-2007 at age 30-89 were estimated, using register data encompassing the entire Norwegian population. More than 200 000 cancer deaths during over 2 million person-years of exposure were analyzed. Results: The excess mortality of the never-married compared to the married has increased steadily for men, in particular the elderly. Among elderly women, the excess mortality of the never-married compared to the married has increased, and there are indications of an increasing excess mortality of the widowed. The excess mortality of divorced men and women, however, has been stable. Conclusions: There is no obvious explanation for the increasing disadvantage among the never-married. It could be due to a relatively poorer general health at time of diagnosis, either because of a more protective effect of partnership in a society that may have become less cohesive or because of more positive selection into marriage. Alternatively, it could be related to increasing differentials with respect to treatment. Today's complex cancer therapy regimens may be more difficult for never-married to follow, and health care interventions directed and adapted more specifically to the broad subgroup of never-married patients might be warranted. © 2011 Kravdal and Syse; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Solheim O.,Norwegian University of Science and Technology | Torsteinsen M.,Nordlandssykehuset | Johannesen T.B.,Cancer Registry of Norway | Jakola A.S.,Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Journal of Neurosurgery | Year: 2014

Object. It is assumed that the observed increase in brain tumor incidence may at least partially be explained by increased use of MRI. However, to date no direct estimate of this effect is available. The authors undertook this registry-based study to examine whether regional frequencies of cerebral MRI use correlate to regional incidence rates of intracranial tumors and survival of patients with these lesions. Methods. The authors used Norwegian national population registries from January 2002 through December 2007 to conduct this observational study. They obtained information on outpatient MRI scans in Norwegian counties and examined whether the annual regional rates of cerebral MRI scans correlated to regional age- and sex-adjusted brain tumor incidence rates. They also explored whether differences in cerebral MRI use were associated with survival and examined time trends in the study period. Results. Approximately 50,000 cerebral MRI scans are carried out annually in outpatient settings in Norway, and 6363 primary intracranial tumors were diagnosed in Norway during the study period. There was an overall positive correlation between the annual number of cerebral MRI scans per 100,000 capita and age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates of intracranial tumors in the various Norwegian counties (Spearman's rho = 0.35, p < 0.001). In a linear model, an increase in 1 MRI per 100,000 capita per year results in a 0.004 (95% CI 0.002-0.006) increase in diagnosed intracranial tumors per 100,000 capita per year (p < 0.001). Subgroup analysis showed a correlation between MRI use and the annual age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates of extraaxial tumors (p = 0.04, Spearman's rho = 0.28) but not intra-axial tumors (p = 0.394). Overall survival for unselected patients with intracranial tumors is longer with increasing number of cerebral MRI scans per capita in the county of residence at the time of the diagnosis (log rank, p = 0.029). However, after adjustment for year of diagnosis and catchment region of the Norwegian neurosurgical centers, the association between MRI scans per capita and overall survival was no longer statistically significant (p = 0.076). Conclusions. Presumably due to the incidental discovery of benign extraaxial tumors, regional differences in the use of cerebral MRI in outpatients affect observed incidence rates of intracranial tumors. ©AANS, 2014.

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