Foley A.M.,University of Cambridge |
Foley A.M.,University of London |
Holden P.B.,Open University Milton Keynes |
Edwards N.R.,Open University Milton Keynes |
And 5 more authors.
Earth System Dynamics | Year: 2016
We present a carbon-cycle-climate modelling framework using model emulation, designed for integrated assessment modelling, which introduces a new emulator of the carbon cycle (GENIEem).We demonstrate that GENIEem successfully reproduces the CO2 concentrations of the Representative Concentration Pathways when forced with the corresponding CO2 emissions and non-CO2 forcing. To demonstrate its application as part of the integrated assessment framework, we use GENIEem along with an emulator of the climate (PLASIMENTSem) to evaluate global CO2 concentration levels and spatial temperature and precipitation response patterns resulting from CO2 emission scenarios. These scenarios are modelled using a macroeconometric model (E3MG) coupled to a model of technology substitution dynamics (FTT), and represent different emissions reduction policies applied solely in the electricity sector, without mitigation in the rest of the economy. The effect of cascading uncertainty is apparent, but despite uncertainties, it is clear that in all scenarios, global mean temperatures in excess of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels are projected by the end of the century. Our approach also highlights the regional temperature and precipitation patterns associated with the global mean temperature change occurring in these scenarios, enabling more robust impacts modelling and emphasizing the necessity of focusing on spatial patterns in addition to global mean temperature change. © 2016 Author(s).
Mercure J.-F.,University of Cambridge |
Pollitt H.,Cambridge Econometrics Ltd |
Chewpreecha U.,Cambridge Econometrics Ltd |
Salas P.,University of Cambridge |
And 3 more authors.
Energy Policy | Year: 2014
This paper presents an analysis of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology diffusion perspective. Energy markets are driven by innovation, path-dependent technology choices and diffusion. However, conventional optimisation models lack detail on these aspects and have limited ability to address the effectiveness of policy interventions because they do not represent decision-making. As a result, known effects of technology lock-ins are liable to be underestimated. In contrast, our approach places investor decision-making at the core of the analysis and investigates how it drives the diffusion of low-carbon technology in a highly disaggregated, hybrid, global macroeconometric model, FTT:Power-E3MG. Ten scenarios to 2050 of the electricity sector in 21 regions exploring combinations of electricity policy instruments are analysed, including their climate impacts. We show that in a diffusion and path-dependent perspective, the impact of combinations of policies does not correspond to the sum of impacts of individual instruments: synergies exist between policy tools. We argue that the carbon price required to break the current fossil technology lock-in can be much lower when combined with other policies, and that a 90% decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2050 is affordable without early scrapping. © 2014 The Authors.
Mercure J.-F.,Radboud University Nijmegen |
Mercure J.-F.,University of Cambridge |
Pollitt H.,Cambridge Econometrics Ltd. |
Bassi A.M.,Knowledge Srl |
And 2 more authors.
Global Environmental Change | Year: 2016
This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanisms, such as technology lock-ins, arising from multi-agent interactions) and agent heterogeneity (e.g. differences in consumer and investment behaviour arising from income stratification). We first characterise the uncertainty faced by climate policy-makers and its implications for investment decision-makers. We then identify five shortcomings in the equilibrium and optimisation-based approaches most frequently used to inform sustainability policy: (i) their normative, optimisation-based nature, (ii) their unrealistic reliance on the full-rationality of agents, (iii) their inability to account for mutual influences among agents (multi-agent interactions) and capture related self-reinforcing (positive feedback) processes, (iv) their inability to represent multiple solutions and path-dependency, and (v) their inability to properly account for agent heterogeneity. The aim of this article is to introduce an alternative modelling approach based on complexity dynamics and agent heterogeneity, and explore its use in four key areas of sustainability policy, namely (1) technology adoption and diffusion, (2) macroeconomic impacts of low-carbon policies, (3) interactions between the socio-economic system and the natural environment, and (4) the anticipation of policy outcomes. The practical relevance of the proposed methodology is subsequently discussed by reference to four specific applications relating to each of the above areas: the diffusion of transport technology, the impact of low-carbon investment on income and employment, the management of cascading uncertainties, and the cross-sectoral impact of biofuels policies. In conclusion, the article calls for a fundamental methodological shift aligning the modelling of the socio-economic system with that of the climatic system, for a combined and realistic understanding of the impact of sustainability policies. © 2016 The Authors.
Agency: European Commission | Branch: H2020 | Program: RIA | Phase: WATER-2b-2015 | Award Amount: 7.90M | Year: 2016
Land, food, energy, water and climate are interconnected, comprising a coherent system (the Nexus), dominated by complexity and feedback. The integrated management of the Nexus is critical to secure the efficient and sustainable use of resources. Barriers to a resource efficient Europe are policy inconsistencies and incoherence, knowledge gaps, especially regarding integration methodologies and tools for the Nexus, and knowledge and technology lock-ins. SIM4NEXUS will develop innovative methodologies to address these barriers, by building on well-known and scientifically established existing thematic models, simulating different components/themes of the Nexus and by developing: (a) novel complexity science methodologies and approaches for integrating the outputs of the thematic models; (b) a Geoplatform for seamless integration of public domain data and metadata for decision and policy making; (c) a Knowledge Elicitation Engine for integrating strategies at different spatial and temporal scales with top down and bottom up learning process, discovering new and emergent knowledge, in the form of unknown relations between the Nexus components and policies/strategies; (d) a web-based Serious Game for multiple users, as an enhanced interactive visualisation tool, providing an immersive experience to decision- and policy-makers. The Serious Game will assist the users (as players) in better understanding and visualising policies at various geo-/spatial scales and from a holistic point of view, towards a better scientific understanding of the Nexus. The Serious Game will be validated (applied, tested, verified and used) via ten Case Studies ranging from regional to national level. Two further Strategic Serious Games at European and Global levels will also be developed for demonstration, education and further exploitation purposes, accompanied by a robust business plan and IPR framework, for taking advantage of the post-project situation and business potential.
Agency: European Commission | Branch: H2020 | Program: RIA | Phase: CO-CREATION-08-2016-2017 | Award Amount: 1.82M | Year: 2017
MONROE aims at developing a modelling toolkit that would allow a broad range of stakeholders such as European and national governments, academia, regional and local bodies to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of their specific R&I policies and programmes. The toolkit will assess medium and long-term impacts of R&I policies and programmes on economic growth, job creation, competitiveness, social inequality and sustainability at various geographical levels ranging from word-wide to European, country and regional levels and for various economic sectors. Using innovative modelling methodologies and online visualisation techniques the developed toolkit will encourage collaboration between different societal actors in the process of co-creation for sustainable R&I driven economic growth.
Agency: European Commission | Branch: H2020 | Program: RIA | Phase: LCE-31-2016-2017 | Award Amount: 3.34M | Year: 2016
The Energy Union Framework Strategy laid out on 25 February 2015 has embraced a citizens-oriented energy transition based on a low-carbon transformation of the energy system. The success of the energy transition pillar in the Energy Union will hinge upon the social acceptability of the necessary reforms and on the public engagement in conceptualizing, planning, and implementing low carbon energy transitions. The ENABLE.EU project will aim to define the key determinants of individual and collective energy choices in three key consumption areas - transportation, heating & cooling, and electricity and in the shift to prosumption (users-led initiatives of decentralised energy production and trade). The project will also investigate the interrelations between individual and collective energy choices and their impact on regulatory, technological and investment decisions. The analysis will be based on national household and business surveys in 11 countries, as well as research-area-based comparative case studies. ENABLE.EU aims to also strengthen the knowledge base for energy transition patterns by analysing existing public participation mechanisms, energy cultures, social mobilisation, scientists engagement with citizens. Gender issues and concerns regarding energy vulnerability and affluence will be given particular attention. The project will also develop participatory-driven scenarios for the development of energy choices until 2050 by including the findings from the comparative sociological research in the E3ME model created by Cambridge Econometrics and used extensively by DG Energy. The findings from the modelling exercise will feed into the formulation of strategic and policy recommendations for overcoming the gaps in the social acceptability of the energy transition and the Energy Union plan. Results will be disseminated to relevant national and EU-level actors as well as to the general public.
Agency: European Commission | Branch: FP7 | Program: CSA-SA | Phase: KBBE.2013.3.3-02 | Award Amount: 1.28M | Year: 2013
The implementation of the European bioeconomy occurs under the impulsion of entrepreneurs (ranging from carbon-based industries to farmers and foresters) and political authorities, assisted by knowledge workers (R&D). The drivers are (1) the search for alternative resources for fossil fuels, (2) the response to climate warming by becoming as CO2 neutral as possible and (3) the industrial demand for new functionalities offered by biobased materials and chemicals. Regions can be encouraged to apply new development strategies. Regions can also be guided to find ways to support, encourage and enhance concrete actions towards the bioeconomy by current and potential entrepreneurs within a bioeconomy. All regions are potentially bioregions, and the BERST project provides tools (sets of criteria, catalogues both of instruments and measures as well as of good practices and case studies, and guidelines for elaborating regional profiles to prepare for smart specialisation strategies) to help regions in their trajectory of bioeconomic development. The aim of this project is to take into account the bioeconomy potential and strategies of a range of different regions in Europe, and therefore to gain understanding of the possibilities and challenges related to the enhancement of biobased economies. The project also provides a support network in order to promote the development of smart specialisation strategies based on regional bioeconomic potential. The results and outcomes of this project will be linked to each regions normal planning and strategic development processes, and therefore to give additional tools for the regions to enhance their bioeconomies. This also means to promote stakeholder relations within bioregions, so that entrepreneurs can guide regional priorities in the development of the bioeconomy. The outcome of the project with both a toolkit and an operating bioregional network is intended to be taken over by the nascent EU Bioeconomy Observatory.
Agency: European Commission | Branch: FP7 | Program: CP | Phase: ENV.2013.6.1-5 | Award Amount: 3.57M | Year: 2013
Climate change mitigation now focus on production, where upward drivers of GHG emissions come from consumption. Demand side oriented policies hence can complement domestic GHG reduction efforts. The core aim of this project is to 1. Stimulate innovative demand side oriented climate policies by improved shared insight in consumption emissions. 2. Realize a more effective policy mix for achieving the objectives of the EU policy packages (e.g. Low carbon economy roadmap) There are significant questions about consumption based carbon accounting (CBCA) systems (Gap 1: CBCA reliability) and demand side policies (effectiveness (Gap 2) and societal impacts (Gap 3)). Stakeholders hence can easily question their added value (Gap 4). Our project will overcome this problem via the following responses 1. (WP4). Comparing the major CBCA databases (EXIOBASE, WIOD, GTAP, EORA), identifying key factors causing uncertainty, assessing upward drivers, resulting in CBCA that can be implemented by formal players in the climate community (UNFCCC, IEA, others) 2. (WP5 and WP6). Providing an in-depth analysis of the feasibilities of consumption based and trade related policies, assessing their effectiveness, and compatibility with e.g. WTO rules (WP5). Specific case studies will zoom in on practical improvement options and implications for specific sectors (WP6) 3. (WP7). Improving some of the most ambitious global economic models, E3ME/E3MG, EXIOMOD and IPTSs FIDELIO relation to point 1 so that they capture side-effects and rebound effects, impacts on trade, investment etc. of consumption based policies 4. (WP8 and WP2). Creating an implementation roadmap for consumption based accounts and policies (WP8) endorsed by a critical mass of stakeholders via policy-science brokerage activities (WP2) The project is complemented by Management (WP1) and an inception phase (WP3) and executed by a group of the most renowned institutes in CBCA, economic modeling and climate policy.
Agency: European Commission | Branch: H2020 | Program: RIA | Phase: SC5-03a-2014 | Award Amount: 7.97M | Year: 2015
Both the models concerning the future climate evolution and its impacts, as well as the models assessing the costs and benefits associated with different mitigation pathways face a high degree of uncertainty. There is an urgent need to not only understand the costs and risks associated with climate change but also the risks, uncertainties and co-effects related to different mitigation pathways as well as public acceptance (or lack thereof) of low-carbon (technology) options. The main aims and objectives of TRANSrisk therefore are to create a novel assessment framework for analysing costs and benefits of transition pathways, that will integrate well-established approaches to modelling the costs of resilient, low-carbon pathways with a wider interdisciplinary approach including risk assessments. In addition TRANSrisk aims to design a decision support tool that should help policy makers to better understand uncertainties and risks and enable them to include risk assessments into more robust policy design.
Agency: European Commission | Branch: H2020 | Program: FCH2-CSA | Phase: FCH-04.2-2014 | Award Amount: 2.04M | Year: 2015
Despite major technological development and the start of commercial deployments of the fuel cells and hydrogen technology, the public awareness of FCH technologies has lagged behind this technical progress so far, restricting the appetite of potential customers and risking a lack of support from policymakers. To address this challenge, a consortium of leading experts has come together, combining communication experts, PR of established manufacturers and technology suppliers and world-class experts on the societal benefits of low carbon technologies. Together, the they will deliver HY4ALL, an ambitious programme to drive a step-change in awareness and excitement around fuel cells and hydrogen and deliver clear and consistent messages that resonate with all audiences, from policymakers to the general public. The project will be active in minimum 11 member states, and will be closely linked to the large numbers of existing hydrogen initiatives and demonstrations, maximising its impact and allowing the communication strategy to influence dissemination work beyond the project for lasting effects. The project aims will be delivered through the following activities: Development of an overarching communication strategy, that will form the basis for all subsequent project activities and will allow the FCH community to speak with one voice Creation of an interactive web portal for FCH technologies, providing a one stop shop for visitors seeking information and acting as a single brand and hub for all other dissemination activities A cross-European hydrogen for society roadshow with fuel cell vehicles travelling between cities across the EU. The roadshow will form the focal point for a variety of innovative dissemination activities, public debates, co-hosting of national vehicle and infrastructure launches A robust assessment of of the macro-economic and societal benefits of FCH technologies, providing fact-based analysis used to convey clear messages