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Xie Y.,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research | Xie Y.,CAS Research Center for Eco Environmental Sciences | Li X.,CAS Research Center for Eco Environmental Sciences | Yang C.,Harbin Bureau of Hydrology | Yu Y.,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Water Science and Technology: Water Supply | Year: 2014

Water shortage is a major problem in northern China, because of a huge population and rapid economic growth. Taking the Luanhe River Basin (LRB) as a study area, we set up a System Dynamics (SD) model of the basin for the period 2005-2010, and considered various important socioeconomic and environmental factors and their correlation. Significant trends for the period 2011-2030 were simulated and the water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) of the LRB and its trends over the next 30 years were analyzed. The results indicate a decreasing trend of WRCC in the basin and that current economic growth is not sustainable. The study investigated possible optimized allocation projects. The most apt project would involve a combination of strategies that could considerably increase the WRCC, reduce demand, and improve water quality. © IWA Publishing 2014. Source

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