Burden of Disease Research Unit

South African, South Africa

Burden of Disease Research Unit

South African, South Africa
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Somdyala N.I.,Burden of Disease Research Unit | Bradshaw D.,Burden of Disease Research Unit | Gelderblom W.C.,PROMEC Unit | Gelderblom W.C.,Stellenbosch University | Parkin D.M.,University of Oxford
International Journal of Cancer | Year: 2010

Cancer incidence rates and patterns are reported for a rural population, living in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa for the period 1998-2002. The population-based cancer registry has operated for 20 years, using both active and passive methods for case finding, through collaborations with 19 health facilities: 11 district hospitals, 7 referral hospitals and 1 regional laboratory. The age standardized incidence rates for all cancers were 73.1 per 100,000 in males and 64.1 per 100,000 in females. The leading top 5 cancers for males were oesophagus (32.7 per 100,000), lung (5.8 per 100,000), prostate (4.4 per 100,000), liver (4.4 per 100,000) and larynx (2.5 per 100,000) whereas for females they were cervix (21.7 per 100,000), oesophagus (20.2 per 100,000), breast (7.5 per 100,000), ovary (0.9 per 100,000) and liver (0.9 per 100,000). The incidence of Kaposi sarcoma was low, and higher for males (1.6 per 100,000) than females (0.3 per 100,000). Lung cancer in both males and females was relatively low compared to the high incidence of oesophagus cancer. © 2010 UICC.

Mayosi B.M.,University of Cape Town | Lawn J.E.,Saving Newborn Lives | Van Niekerk A.,Safety and Peace Promotion Research Unit | Van Niekerk A.,University of South Africa | And 5 more authors.
The Lancet | Year: 2012

Since the 2009 Lancet Health in South Africa Series, important changes have occurred in the country, resulting in an increase in life expectancy to 60 years. Historical injustices together with the disastrous health policies of the previous administration are being transformed. The change in leadership of the Ministry of Health has been key, but new momentum is inhibited by stasis within the health management bureaucracy. Specifi c policy and programme changes are evident for all four of the so-called colliding epidemics: HIV and tuberculosis; chronic illness and mental health; injury and violence; and maternal, neonatal, and child health. South Africa now has the world's largest programme of antiretroviral therapy, and some advances have been made in implementation of new tuberculosis diagnostics and treatment scale-up and integration. HIV prevention has received increased attention. Child mortality has benefi ted from progress in addressing HIV. However, more attention to postnatal feeding support is needed. Many risk factors for non-communicable diseases have increased substantially during the past two decades, but an ambitious government policy to address lifestyle risks such as consumption of salt and alcohol provide real potential for change. Although mortality due to injuries seems to be decreasing, high levels of interpersonal violence and accidents persist. An integrated strategic framework for prevention of injury and violence is in progress but its successful implementation will need high-level commitment, support for evidence-led prevention interventions, investment in surveillance systems and research, and improved human-resources and management capacities. A radical system of national health insurance and re-engineering of primary health care will be phased in for 14 years to enable universal, equitable, and affordable health-care coverage. Finally, national consensus has been reached about seven priorities for health research with a commitment to increase the health research budget to 2·0% of national health spending. However, large racial diff erentials exist in social determinants of health, especially housing and sanitation for the poor and inequity between the sexes, although progress has been made in access to basic education, electricity, piped water, and social protection. Integration of the private and public sectors and of services for HIV, tuberculosis, and non-communicable diseases needs to improve, as do surveillance and information systems. Additionally, successful interventions need to be delivered widely. Transformation of the health system into a national institution that is based on equity and merit and is built on an eff ective human-resources system could still place South Africa on track to achieve Millennium Development Goals 4, 5, and 6 and would enhance the lives of its citizens.

Peer N.,Chronic Diseases of Lifestyle Research Unit | Bradshaw D.,Burden of Disease Research Unit | Laubscher R.,Biostatistics Unit | Steyn N.,Human science Research Council | Steyn K.,University of Cape Town
Global Health Action | Year: 2013

Background: Non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs) have increased in South Africa over the past 15 years. While these usually manifest during mid-to-late adulthood, the development of modifiable risk factors that contribute to NCDs are usually adopted early in life. Objective: To describe the urban-rural and gender patterns of NCD risk factors in black adolescents and young adults (15-to 24-year-olds) from two South African Demographic and Health Surveys conducted 5 years apart. Design: An observational study based on interviews and measurements from two cross-sectional national household surveys. Changes in tobacco and alcohol use, dietary intake, physical inactivity, and overweight/obesity among 15-to 24-year-olds as well as urban-rural and gender differences were analysed using logistic regression. The 'Surveyset' option in Stata statistical software was used to allow for the sampling weight in the analysis. Results: Data from 3,186 and 2,066 black 15-to 24-year-old participants in 1998 and 2003, respectively, were analysed. In males, the prevalence of smoking (1998: 21.6%, 2003: 19.1%) and problem drinking (1998: 17.2%, 2003: 15.2%) were high and increased with age, but in females were much lower (smoking - 1998: 1.0%, 2003: 2.1%; problem drinking - 1998: 4.2%, 2003: 5.8%). The predominant risk factors in females were overweight/obesity (1998: 29.9%, 2003: 31.1%) and physical inactivity (2003: 46%). Urban youth, compared to their rural counterparts, were more likely to smoke (odds ratio (OR): 1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09-1.75), have high salt intake (OR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.12-2.78), be overweight/obese (OR: 1.39, 95% CI: 1.14-1.69), or be physically inactive (OR: 1.45, 95% CI: 1.12-1.89). However, they had lower odds of inadequate micronutrient intake (OR: 0.46, 95% CI 0.34-0.62), and there was no overall significant urban- rural difference in the odds for problem drinking but among females the odds were higher in urban compared to rural females. Conclusion: Considering that the prevalence of modifiable NCD risk factors was high in this population, and that these may persist into adulthood, innovative measures are required to prevent the uptake of unhealthy behaviours, and regular surveillance is needed. © 2013 Nasheeta Peer et al.

Bradshaw D.,Burden of Disease Research Unit | Msemburi W.,Burden of Disease Research Unit | Dorrington R.,University of Cape Town | Pillay-Van Wyk V.,Burden of Disease Research Unit | And 2 more authors.
AIDS | Year: 2016

Objectives: Empirical estimates of the number of HIV/AIDS deaths are important for planning, budgeting, and calibrating models. However, there is an extensive misattribution of HIV/AIDS as an underlying cause-of-death. This study estimates the true numbers of AIDS deaths from South African vital statistics between 1997 and 2010. Methods: Individual-level cause-of-death data were grouped according to a local burden of disease list and source causes (i.e. causes under which AIDS deaths are misclassified) that recorded a rapid increase. After adjusting for completeness of registration, the mortality rate of the source causes, by age and sex, was regressed on the lagged HIV prevalence to estimate the rate of increase correlated with HIV. Background trends in the source-cause mortality rates were estimated from the trend experienced among 75-84 year olds. Results: Of 214 causes considered, 19 were identified as potential sources for cause misattribution. High proportions of deaths from tuberculosis, lower respiratory infections (mostly pneumonia), diarrhoeal diseases, and ill-defined natural causes were estimated to be HIV-related, with only 7% of the estimated AIDS deaths being recorded as HIV. Estimated HIV/AIDS deaths increased rapidly, then reversed after 2006, totalling 2.8 million deaths over the whole period. The number was lower than model estimates from Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the Global Burden of Disease Study. Conclusion: Empirically based estimates confirm the considerable loss of life from HIV/AIDS and should be used for calibrating models of the AIDS epidemic which generally appear too low for infants but too high for other ages. Doctors are urged to specify HIV on death notifications to provide reliable cause-of-death statistics. © 2016 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.

Johnson L.F.,University of Cape Town | Dorrington R.E.,University of Cape Town | Bradshaw D.,Burden of Disease Research Unit | Coetzee D.J.,University of Cape Town
Tropical Medicine and International Health | Year: 2012

Objectives To assess the extent to which sexually transmitted infections (STIs) have contributed to the spread of HIV in South Africa and to estimate the extent to which improvements in STI treatment have reduced HIV incidence. Methods A mathematical model was used to simulate interactions between HIV and six other STIs (genital herpes, syphilis, chancroid, gonorrhoea, chlamydial infection and trichomoniasis) as well as bacterial vaginosis and vaginal candidiasis. The effects of STIs on HIV transmission probabilities were assumed to be consistent with meta-analytic reviews of observational studies, and the model was fitted to South African HIV prevalence data. Results The proportion of new HIV infections in adults that were attributable to curable STIs reduced from 39% (uncertainty range: 24-50%) in 1990 to 14% (8-18%) in 2010, while the proportion of new infections attributable to genital herpes increased. Syndromic management programmes are estimated to have reduced adult HIV incidence by 6.6% (3.3-10.3%) between 1994 and 2004, by which time syndromic management coverage was 52%. Had syndromic management been introduced in 1986, with immediate achievement of 100% coverage and a doubling of the rate of health seeking, HIV incidence would have reduced by 64% (36-82%) over the next decade, but had the same intervention been delayed until 2004, HIV incidence would have reduced by only 5.5% (2.8-9.0%). Conclusions Sexually transmitted infections have contributed significantly to the spread of HIV in South Africa, but STI control efforts have had limited impact on HIV incidence because of their late introduction and suboptimal coverage. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Bradshaw D.,Burden of Disease Research Unit | Dorrington R.E.,University of Cape Town
South African Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology | Year: 2012

Background. The paucity of quality data on maternal deaths and possible mis-specification of models have resulted in a range of estimates of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) for South Africa. Objectives. This paper contrasts the estimates from multi-country models for estimating the MMR with the South African data from vital registration. Method. A literature review was undertaken to identify estimates of the MMR for South Africa and methodologies used. In addition, cause of death data from Statistics SA were analysed for trends. Results. In contrast to prediction models used by international agencies, the Health Data Advisory and Co-ordinating Committee (HDACC) recommended the use of the vital registration data adjusted for under-registration and misclassification of causes to monitor maternal mortality. HDACC also recommended that, as is done by the Maternal Mortality Estimation Interagency Group (MMEIG), the number of maternal deaths identified be scaled up by 50% to account for the general under-reporting of maternal deaths. Based on this approach, the baseline MMR in 2008 was estimated to be 310 per 100 000 live births. From vital statistics, the indications are that by 2009, South Africa had not yet managed to reverse the upward trend in MMR. The increase is largely a result of an increase in the number of maternal deaths from indirect causes, as might be expected in the context of the HIV pandemic. However, the number of indirect maternal deaths increased markedly only since 2003, a few years later than the rapid increase in AIDS mortality. Conclusions. There are opportunities to improve monitoring maternal mortality, including strengthening the information systems (vital registration, the confidential enquiry and the routine health information system) and exploring opportunities for linking data from different sources. Better data on the role of HIV in maternal mortality are needed.

Chokotho L.C.,Beit Cure Hospital | Matzopoulos R.,University of Cape Town | Matzopoulos R.,Burden of Disease Research Unit | Myers J.E.,University of Cape Town
Traffic Injury Prevention | Year: 2013

Objectives: This study assessed whether the quality of the available road traffic injury (RTI) data was sufficient for determining the burden of RTIs in the Western Cape Province and for implementing and monitoring road safety interventions.Methodology: Underreporting was assessed by comparing data reported by the South African Police Services (SAPS) in 2008 with data from 18 provincial mortuaries. Completeness of the driver death subset of all RTIs was assessed using the capture-recapture method.Results: The mortuary and police data sets comprised 1696 and 860 fatalities respectively for the year 2008. The corresponding provincial road traffic mortality rates were as follows: 32.2 deaths/100,000 population per year (95% confidence interval [CI]: 30.7-33.8) and 16.3 deaths/100,000 population per year (95% CI: 15.3-17.5). The police data set contained 820,960 crashes, involving 196,889 persons, indicating substantial duplication of crash events. There were varying proportions of missing data for demographic and other identifying variables, with age missing in nearly half of the cases in the police data set. The estimated total number of driver deaths/year was 588.6 (95% CI: 544.4-632.8), yielding estimated completeness of the mortuary and police data sets of 57.6 and 46.4 percent separately and 77.3 percent combined.Conclusion: This study found extensive data quality problems, including missing data, duplication, and significant underreporting of traffic injury deaths in the police data. Not all assumptions underlying the use of capture-recapture method were met in this study; hence, the estimates provided by this analysis should be interpreted with caution. There is a need to address the problems highlighted by this study in order to improve data utility for informing road safety policies.Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Traffic Injury Prevention to view the supplemental file. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Johnson L.F.,University of Cape Town | Dorrington R.E.,University of Cape Town | Bradshaw D.,Burden of Disease Research Unit | Coetzee D.J.,University of Cape Town
Sexual and Reproductive Healthcare | Year: 2011

Objectives: Few studies have assessed the effect of syndromic management interventions on the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) at a population level. This study aims to determine the effect of syndromic management protocols that have been introduced in South Africa since 1994. Study design: A mathematical model of sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa was used to model the incidence of HIV, genital herpes, syphilis, chancroid, gonorrhoea, chlamydial infection, trichomoniasis, bacterial vaginosis and vaginal candidiasis. Assumptions about health seeking behaviour and treatment effectiveness were based on South African survey data. The model was fitted to available STI prevalence data. Main outcome measures: Reductions in STI prevalence due to syndromic management. Results: Between 1995 and 2005, there were significant reductions in the prevalence of syphilis, chancroid, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and chlamydial infection. In women aged between 15 and 49, syndromic management resulted in a 33% (95% CI: 23-43%) decline in syphilis prevalence, a 6% (95% CI: 3-11%) reduction in gonorrhoea prevalence, a 5% (95% CI: 1-13%) reduction in the prevalence of bacterial vaginosis and a substantial decline in chancroid. However, syndromic management did not significantly reduce the prevalence of other STIs. For all STIs, much of the modelled reduction in STI prevalence between 1995 and 2005 can be attributed to either increased condom usage or AIDS mortality. Conclusions: Syndromic management of STIs can be expected to decrease the prevalence of curable STIs that tend to become symptomatic, but has little effect on the prevalence of STIs that are mostly asymptomatic. © 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Sitas F.,Cancer Research Division | Sitas F.,University of Sydney | Sitas F.,University of New South Wales | Egger S.,Cancer Research Division | And 5 more authors.
The Lancet | Year: 2013

Background The full eventual effects of current smoking patterns cannot yet be seen in Africa. In South Africa, however, men and women in the coloured (mixed black and white ancestry) population have smoked for many decades. We assess mortality from smoking in the coloured, white, and black (African) population groups. Methods In this case-control study, 481640 South African notifications of death at ages 35-74 years between 1999 and 2007 yielded information about age, sex, population group, education, smoking 5 years ago (yes or no), and underlying disease. Cases were deaths from diseases expected to be affected by smoking; controls were deaths from selected other diseases, excluding only HIV, cirrhosis, unknown causes, external causes, and mental disorders. Disease-specific case-control comparisons yielded smoking-associated relative risks (RRs; diluted by combining some ex-smokers with the never-smokers). These RRs, when combined with national mortality rates, yielded smoking-attributed mortality rates. Summation yielded RRs and smoking-attributed numbers for overall mortality. Findings In the coloured population, smoking prevalence was high in both sexes and smokers had about 50% higher overall mortality than did otherwise similar non-smokers or ex-smokers (men, RR 1·55, 95% CI 1·43-1·67; women, 1·49, 1·38-1·60). RRs were similar in the white population (men, 1·37, 1·29-1·46; women, 1·51, 1·40- 1·62), but lower among Africans (men, 1·17, 1·15- 1·19; women, 1·16, 1·13-1·20). If these associations are largely causal, smoking-attributed proportions for overall male deaths at ages 35-74 years were 27% (5608/20767) in the coloured, 14% (3913/28951) in the white, and 8% (20398/264011) in the African population. For female deaths, these proportions were 17% (2728/15593) in the coloured, 12% (2084/17899) in the white, and 2% (4038/205623) in the African population. Because national mortality rates were also substantially higher in the coloured than in the white population, the hazards from smoking in the coloured population were more than double those in the white population. Interpretation The highest smoking-attributed mortality rates were in the coloured population and the lowest were in Africans. The substantial hazards already seen among coloured South Africans suggest growing hazards in all populations in Africa where young adults now smoke. Funding South African Medical Research Council, UK Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, New South Wales Cancer Council. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Burger E.H.,University of the Western Cape | Groenewald P.,Burden of Disease Research Unit | Rossouw A.,Burden of Disease Research Unit | Bradshaw D.,Burden of Disease Research Unit
South African Medical Journal | Year: 2015

Despite improvements to the Death Notification Form (DNF) used in South Africa (SA), the quality of cause-of-death information remains suboptimal. To address these inadequacies, the government ran a train-the-trainer programme on completion of the DNF, targeting doctors in public sector hospitals. Training materials were developed and workshops were held in all provinces. This article reflects on the lessons learnt from the training and highlights issues that need to be addressed to improve medical certification and cause-of-death data in SA. The DNF should be completed truthfully and accurately, and confidentiality of the information on the form should be maintained. The underlying cause of death should be entered on the lowest completed line in the cause-of-death section, and if appropriate, HIV should be entered here. Exclusion clauses for HIV in life insurance policies with Association of Savings and Investments South Africa companies were scrapped in 2005. Interactive workshops provide a good learning environment, but are logistically challenging. More use should be made of online training resources, particularly with continuing professional development accreditation and helpline support. In addition, training in the completion of the DNF should become part of the curriculum in all medical schools, and part of the orientation of interns and community service doctors in all facilities. © 2014, South African Medical Association. All rights reserved.

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