Rennau H.,Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research |
Rennau H.,Bolding and Burchard Aps |
Schimmels S.,Karlsruhe Institute of Technology |
Burchard H.,Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research
Coastal Engineering | Year: 2012
This study aims to estimate the additional mixing and dilution of dense bottom currents due to foundations of wind turbines in offshore wind farms projected in the region of the Western Baltic Sea. To some extent these offshore wind farms are planned to be build directly in the main pathways of dense bottom currents propagating into the Baltic Sea. This may have a significant effect for the Baltic Sea ecosystem. In the present study, cylindric structures are assumed for the underwater construction of the individual wind turbines, which are assembled in wind farms with typically 50-100 structures. A parameterisation of the additional mixing and friction due to a structure is developed as an extension of the k- ε two-equation turbulence closure model. Results of a high resolution Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model of the local scale are used to calibrate this parameterisation for hydrostatic coastal ocean models. A Western Baltic Sea hydrodynamic model coupled to the extended turbulence closure model is applied in two different scenarios covering (i) weak and (ii) strong structure-induced mixing due to offshore wind farm distributions in accordance with the present (April 2009) planning situation. The scenarios are completed by two cases with unrealistically extensive wind farms simulating a theoretical future worst case scenario. By means of analysing annual model simulations, it is found that the impact of structure-induced mixing due to realistic wind farm distributions is comparably low with a typical decrease of bottom salinity in the range of 0.1 - 0.3 psu. The annual mean bottom salinity at the outflow from the Arkona Sea through the Bornholm Channel into the direction of the Baltic Proper shows decreases due to mixing from a realistic wind farm distribution of only 0.02. psu which is more than one order of magnitude smaller than the standard deviation of the bottom salinity change. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.
Hofmeister R.,Helmholtz Center Geesthacht |
Bolding K.,Bolding and Burchard Aps |
Hetland R.D.,Texas College |
Schernewski G.,Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research |
And 3 more authors.
Continental Shelf Research | Year: 2013
The dynamics of cooling water spreading in a non-tidal embayment is subject of a modelling-based study of Greifswald Bay, a shallow embayment at the south-western coast of the Baltic Sea. Potential cooling water spreading due to a possible power plant at Greifswald Bay is evaluated as differences between a realistic hind-cast simulation and a similar simulation but including the cooling water pumping. The model results are confirmed with satellite imagery of the embayment during operation of a nuclear power plant in the 1980s. The effect of cooling water pumping on the residual circulation, additional stratification and the heating of near-bed waters in the herring spawning areas is evaluated from the simulation. The model results for an idealised embayment and the realistic scenario, as well as the satellite images, show a clear dependence of the plume spreading on the wind direction. Although the surface plume affects a large area of the embayment, the results show a localised impact on residual circulation, bulk stratification and heating of the waterbody. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.
Trolle D.,University of Aarhus |
Trolle D.,Sino Danish Center for Education and Research |
Elliott J.A.,UK Center for Ecology and Hydrology |
Mooij W.M.,Netherlands Institute of Ecology |
And 9 more authors.
Environmental Modelling and Software | Year: 2014
A global trend of increasing health hazards associated with proliferation of toxin-producing cyanobacteria makes the ability to project phytoplankton dynamics of paramount importance. Whilst ensemble (multi-)modelling approaches have been used for a number of years to improve the robustness of weather forecasts this approach has until now never been adopted for ecosystem modelling. We show that the average simulated phytoplankton biomass derived from three different aquatic ecosystem models is generally superior to any of the three individual models in describing observed phytoplankton biomass in a typical temperate lake ecosystem, and we simulate a series of climate change projections. While this is the first multi-model ensemble approach applied for some of the most complex aquatic ecosystem models available, we consider it sets a precedent for what will become commonplace methodology in the future, as it enables increased robustness of model projections, and scenario uncertainty estimation due to differences in model structures. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
Beecham J.,CEFAS Lowestoft Laboratory |
Bruggeman J.,Bolding and Burchard Aps |
Aldridge J.,CEFAS Lowestoft Laboratory |
Mackinson S.,CEFAS Lowestoft Laboratory
Geoscientific Model Development | Year: 2016
End-to-end modelling is a rapidly developing strategy for modelling in marine systems science and management. However, problems remain in the area of data matching and sub-model compatibility. A mechanism and novel interfacing system (Couplerlib) is presented whereby a physical-biogeochemical model (General Ocean Turbulence Model-European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model, GOTM-ERSEM) that predicts dynamics of the lower trophic level (LTL) organisms in marine ecosystems is coupled to a dynamic ecosystem model (Ecosim), which predicts food-web interactions among higher trophic level (HTL) organisms. Coupling is achieved by means of a bespoke interface, which handles the system incompatibilities between the models and a more generic Couplerlib library, which uses metadata descriptions in extensible mark-up language (XML) to marshal data between groups, paying attention to functional group mappings and compatibility of units between models. In addition, within Couplerlib, models can be coupled across networks by means of socket mechanisms.
As a demonstration of this approach, a food-web model (Ecopath with Ecosim, EwE) and a physical-biogeochemical model (GOTM-ERSEM) representing the North Sea ecosystem were joined with Couplerlib. The output from GOTM-ERSEM varies between years, depending on oceanographic and meteorological conditions. Although inter-annual variability was clearly present, there was always the tendency for an annual cycle consisting of a peak of diatoms in spring, followed by (less nutritious) flagellates and dinoflagellates through the summer, resulting in an early summer peak in the mesozooplankton biomass. Pelagic productivity, predicted by the LTL model, was highly seasonal with little winter food for the higher trophic levels. The Ecosim model was originally based on the assumption of constant annual inputs of energy and, consequently, when coupled, pelagic species suffered population losses over the winter months. By contrast, benthic populations were more stable (although the benthic linkage modelled was purely at the detritus level, so this stability reflects the stability of the Ecosim model). The coupled model was used to examine long-term effects of environmental change, and showed the system to be nutrient limited and relatively unaffected by forecast climate change, especially in the benthos. The stability of an Ecosim formulation for large higher tropic level food webs is discussed and it is concluded that this kind of coupled model formulation is better for examining the effects of long-term environmental change than short-term perturbations. © 2016 Author(s).
Trolle D.,University of Aarhus |
Hamilton D.P.,University of Waikato |
Hipsey M.R.,University of Western Australia |
Bolding K.,University of Aarhus |
And 23 more authors.
Hydrobiologia | Year: 2012
Here, we communicate a point of departure in the development of aquatic ecosystem models, namely a new community-based framework, which supports an enhanced and transparent union between the collective expertise that exists in the communities of traditional ecologists and model developers. Through a literature survey, we document the growing importance of numerical aquatic ecosystem models while also noting the difficulties, up until now, of the aquatic scientific community to make significant advances in these models during the past two decades. Through a common forum for aquatic ecosystem modellers we aim to (i) advance collaboration within the aquatic ecosystem modelling community, (ii) enable increased use of models for research, policy and ecosystem-based management, (iii) facilitate a collective framework using common (standardised) code to ensure that model development is incremental, (iv) increase the transparency of model structure, assumptions and techniques, (v) achieve a greater understanding of aquatic ecosystem functioning, (vi) increase the reliability of predictions by aquatic ecosystem models, (vii) stimulate model inter-comparisons including differing model approaches, and (viii) avoid 're-inventing the wheel', thus accelerating improvements to aquatic ecosystem models. We intend to achieve this as a community that fosters interactions amongst ecologists and model developers. Further, we outline scientific topics recently articulated by the scientific community, which lend themselves well to being addressed by integrative modelling approaches and serve to motivate the progress and implementation of an open source model framework. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.