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Carroll J.D.,University of Colorado at Denver | Saver J.L.,University of California at Los Angeles | Thaler D.E.,Tufts University | Smalling R.W.,Texas Heart Institute | And 4 more authors.
New England Journal of Medicine | Year: 2013

BACKGROUND: Whether closure of a patent foramen ovale is effective in the prevention of recurrent ischemic stroke in patients who have had a cryptogenic stroke is unknown. We conducted a trial to evaluate whether closure is superior to medical therapy alone in preventing recurrent ischemic stroke or early death in patients 18 to 60 years of age. METHODS: In this prospective, multicenter, randomized, event-driven trial, we randomly assigned patients, in a 1:1 ratio, to medical therapy alone or closure of the patent foramen ovale. The primary results of the trial were analyzed when the target of 25 primary end-point events had been observed and adjudicated. RESULTS: We enrolled 980 patients (mean age, 45.9 years) at 69 sites. The medical-therapy group received one or more antiplatelet medications (74.8%) or warfarin (25.2%). Treatment exposure between the two groups was unequal (1375 patient-years in the closure group vs. 1184 patient-years in the medical-therapy group, P=0.009) owing to a higher dropout rate in the medical-therapy group. In the intention-to-treat cohort, 9 patients in the closure group and 16 in the medical-therapy group had a recurrence of stroke (hazard ratio with closure, 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.22 to 1.11; P=0.08). The between-group difference in the rate of recurrent stroke was significant in the prespecified per-protocol cohort (6 events in the closure group vs. 14 events in the medical-therapy group; hazard ratio, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.96; P=0.03) and in the as-treated cohort (5 events vs. 16 events; hazard ratio, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.10 to 0.75; P=0.007). Serious adverse events occurred in 23.0% of the patients in the closure group and in 21.6% in the medical-therapy group (P=0.65). Procedure-related or device-related serious adverse events occurred in 21 of 499 patients in the closure group (4.2%), but the rate of atrial fibrillation or device thrombus was not increased. CONCLUSIONS: In the primary intention-to-treat analysis, there was no significant benefit associated with closure of a patent foramen ovale in adults who had had a cryptogenic ischemic stroke. However, closure was superior to medical therapy alone in the pre-specified per-protocol and as-treated analyses, with a low rate of associated risks. Copyright © 2013 Massachusetts Medical Society.


Saville B.R.,Vanderbilt University | Connor J.T.,Berry Consultants | Connor J.T.,University of Central Florida | Ayers G.D.,Vanderbilt University | Alvarez J.,Vanderbilt University
Clinical Trials | Year: 2014

Background Bayesian predictive probabilities can be used for interim monitoring of clinical trials to estimate the probability of observing a statistically significant treatment effect if the trial were to continue to its predefined maximum sample size. Purpose We explore settings in which Bayesian predictive probabilities are advantageous for interim monitoring compared to Bayesian posterior probabilities, p-values, conditional power, or group sequential methods. Results For interim analyses that address prediction hypotheses, such as futility monitoring and efficacy monitoring with lagged outcomes, only predictive probabilities properly account for the amount of data remaining to be observed in a clinical trial and have the flexibility to incorporate additional information via auxiliary variables. Limitations Computational burdens limit the feasibility of predictive probabilities in many clinical trial settings. The specification of prior distributions brings additional challenges for regulatory approval. Conclusions The use of Bayesian predictive probabilities enables the choice of logical interim stopping rules that closely align with the clinical decision-making process. © 2014 The Author(s).


Quintana M.A.,Berry Consultants | Conti D.V.,University of Southern California
Statistics in Medicine | Year: 2013

We are interested in developing integrative approaches for variable selection problems that incorporate external knowledge on a set of predictors of interest. In particular, we have developed an integrative Bayesian model uncertainty (iBMU) method, which formally incorporates multiple sources of data via a second-stage probit model on the probability that any predictor is associated with the outcome of interest. Using simulations, we demonstrate that iBMU leads to an increase in power to detect true marginal associations over more commonly used variable selection techniques, such as least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and elastic net. In addition, iBMU leads to a more efficient model search algorithm over the basic BMU method even when the predictor-level covariates are only modestly informative. The increase in power and efficiency of our method becomes more substantial as the predictor-level covariates become more informative. Finally, we demonstrate the power and flexibility of iBMU for integrating both gene structure and functional biomarker information into a candidate gene study investigating over 50 genes in the brain reward system and their role with smoking cessation from the Pharmacogenetics of Nicotine Addiction and Treatment Consortium. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.


Niemann C.U.,University of California at San Francisco | Feiner J.,University of California at San Francisco | Swain S.,California Transplant Donor Network | Bunting S.,OneLegacy | And 7 more authors.
New England Journal of Medicine | Year: 2015

BACKGROUND: Delayed graft function, which is reported in up to 50% of kidney-transplant recipients, is associated with increased costs and diminished long-term graft function. The effect that targeted mild hypothermia in organ donors before organ recovery has on the rate of delayed graft function is unclear. METHODS: We enrolled organ donors (after declaration of death according to neurologic criteria) from two large donation service areas and randomly assigned them to one of two targeted temperature ranges: 34 to 35°C (hypothermia) or 36.5 to 37.5°C (normothermia). Temperature protocols, which were initiated after authorization was obtained for the organ to be donated and for the donor's participation in the study, ended when organ donors left the intensive care unit for organ recovery in the operating room. The primary outcome was delayed graft function in the kidney recipients, which was defined as the requirement for dialysis during the first week after transplantation. Secondary outcomes were the rates of individual organs transplanted in each treatment group and the total number of organs transplanted from each donor. RESULTS: The study was terminated early, on the recommendation of an independent data and safety monitoring board, after the interim analysis showed efficacy of hypothermia. At trial termination, 370 organ donors had been enrolled (180 in the hypothermia group and 190 in the normothermia group). A total of 572 patients received a kidney transplant (285 kidneys from donors in the hypothermia group and 287 kidneys from donors in the normothermia group). Delayed graft function developed in 79 recipients of kidneys from donors in the hypothermia group (28%) and in 112 recipients of kidneys from donors in the normothermia group (39%) (odds ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.43 to 0.92; P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Mild hypothermia, as compared with normothermia, in organ donors after declaration of death according to neurologic criteria significantly reduced the rate of delayed graft function among recipients. Copyright © 2015 Massachusetts Medical Society.


Wiens B.L.,Alcon | Lystig T.C.,Medtronic | Berry S.M.,Berry Consultants
Therapeutic Innovation and Regulatory Science | Year: 2014

Clinical trials in the development of new medical device products are in many ways analogous to clinical trials in the development of new drug or biologic products. However, the differences are important and not always intuitive to a statistician with only experience supporting development of drug and biologic products. In this paper we discuss some of the interesting differences with focus on the statistical innovation that is coming out of the medical device area. We discuss examples of the differences in clinical trial design and effects of these differences on clinical development programs. © The Author(s) 2013.

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