Wang Y.-P.,Beijing Jiantong University |
Wang H.-S.,Beijing Jiantong University |
Niu R.,Beijing Jiantong University
Tiedao Xuebao/Journal of the China Railway Society | Year: 2013
Real-time monitoring of the system safety states can provide critical feedback information for the safety of the running system, and it is the core technology of complex system accident warning. The cusp catastrophe model based on the mutation theory was applied to analyze the changing process of the system safety states in running-time. The system safety states were set as the states variables, and the facility operating state and operators state, the two important factors directly impacting system safety, were set as the control variables. The safety state prediction method was provided on the basis of the cusp catastrophe model. By analyzing the main structure, fault parameters and basic operators states of a Metro ATS system, an applicable safety state-cusp catastrophe model was built. The calculation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the model.