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van der Ploeg F.,University of Oxford | van der Ploeg F.,VU University Amsterdam | van der Ploeg F.,Saint Petersburg State University | de Zeeuw A.,University of Tilburg | de Zeeuw A.,Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics
Environmental and Resource Economics | Year: 2016

The optimal response to a potential productivity shock which becomes more imminent with global warming is to have carbon taxes to curb the risk of a calamity and to accumulate precautionary capital to facilitate smoothing of consumption. This paper investigates how differences between regions in terms of their vulnerability to climate change and their stage of development affect the cooperative and non-cooperative responses to this aspect of climate change. It is shown that the cooperative response to these stochastic tipping points requires converging carbon taxes for developing and developed regions. The non-cooperative response leads to a bit more precautionary saving and diverging carbon taxes. We illustrate the various outcomes with a simple stylized North–South model of the global economy. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.


Beveridge M.C.M.,World Fish | Thilsted S.H.,WorldFish | Phillips M.J.,WorldFish | Metian M.,University of Stockholm | And 3 more authors.
Journal of Fish Biology | Year: 2013

People who are food and nutrition insecure largely reside in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa and for many, fish represents a rich source of protein, micronutrients and essential fatty acids. The contribution of fish to household food and nutrition security depends upon availability, access and cultural and personal preferences. Access is largely determined by location, seasonality and price but at the individual level it also depends upon a person's physiological and health status and how fish is prepared, cooked and shared among household members. The sustained and rapid expansion of aquaculture over the past 30years has resulted in >40% of all fish now consumed being derived from farming. While aquaculture produce increasingly features in the diets of many Asians, it is much less apparent among those living in Sub-Saharan Africa. Here, per capita fish consumption has grown little and despite the apparently strong markets and adequate biophysical conditions, aquaculture has yet to develop. The contribution of aquaculture to food and nutrition security is not only just an issue of where aquaculture occurs but also of what is being produced and how and whether the produce is as accessible as that from capture fisheries. The range of fish species produced by an increasingly globalized aquaculture industry differs from that derived from capture fisheries. Farmed fishes are also different in terms of their nutrient content, a result of the species being grown and of rearing methods. Farmed fish price affects access by poor consumers while the size at which fish is harvested influences both access and use. This paper explores these issues with particular reference to Asia and Africa and the technical and policy innovations needed to ensure that fish farming is able to fulfil its potential to meet the global population's food and nutrition needs. © 2013 World Fish.


Schluter M.,University of Stockholm | Tavoni A.,Grantham Research Institute | Levin S.,Princeton University | Levin S.,University Fellow | Levin S.,Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences | Year: 2016

Sustainable use of common-pool resources such as fish, water or forests depends on the cooperation of resource users that restrain their individual extraction to socially optimal levels. Empirical evidence has shown that under certain social and biophysical conditions, self-organized cooperation in the commons can evolve. Global change, however, may drastically alter these conditions. We assess the robustness of cooperation to environmental variability in a stylized model of a community that harvests a shared resource. Community members follow a norm of socially optimal resource extraction, which is enforced through social sanctioning. Our results indicate that both resource abundance and a small increase in resource variability can lead to collapse of cooperation observed in the no-variability case, while either scarcity or large variability have the potential to stabilize it. The combined effects of changes in amount and variability can reinforce or counteract each other depending on their size and the initial level of cooperation in the community. If two socially separate groups are ecologically connected through resource leakage, cooperation in one can destabilize the other. These findings provide insights into possible effects of global change and spatial connectivity, indicating that there is no simple answer as to their effects on cooperation and sustainable resource use. © 2016 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.


Van Boeckel T.P.,Princeton University | Brower C.,Center for Disease Dynamics | Gilbert M.,Free University of Colombia | Gilbert M.,INRS - Institute National de la Recherche Scientifique | And 11 more authors.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America | Year: 2015

Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg·kg-1, 148 mg·kg-1, and 172 mg·kg-1 for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by largescale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health. © 2015, National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


Van Boeckel T.P.,Princeton University | Gandra S.,Center for Disease Dynamics | Ashok A.,Center for Disease Dynamics | Caudron Q.,Princeton University | And 9 more authors.
The Lancet Infectious Diseases | Year: 2014

Background: Antibiotic drug consumption is a major driver of antibiotic resistance. Variations in antibiotic resistance across countries are attributable, in part, to different volumes and patterns for antibiotic consumption. We aimed to assess variations in consumption to assist monitoring of the rise of resistance and development of rational-use policies and to provide a baseline for future assessment. Methods: With use of sales data for retail and hospital pharmacies from the IMS Health MIDAS database, we reviewed trends for consumption of standard units of antibiotics between 2000 and 2010 for 71 countries. We used compound annual growth rates to assess temporal differences in consumption for each country and Fourier series and regression methods to assess seasonal differences in consumption in 63 of the countries. Findings: Between 2000 and 2010, consumption of antibiotic drugs increased by 36% (from 54 083 964 813 standard units to 73 620 748 816 standard units). Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa accounted for 76% of this increase. In most countries, antibiotic consumption varied significantly with season. There was increased consumption of carbapenems (45%) and polymixins (13%), two last-resort classes of antibiotic drugs. Interpretation: The rise of antibiotic consumption and the increase in use of last-resort antibiotic drugs raises serious concerns for public health. Appropriate use of antibiotics in developing countries should be encouraged. However, to prevent a striking rise in resistance in low-income and middle-income countries with large populations and to preserve antibiotic efficacy worldwide, programmes that promote rational use through coordinated efforts by the international community should be a priority. Funding: US Department of Homeland Security, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US National Institutes of Health, Princeton Grand Challenges Program. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.


Pacheco J.M.,University of Minho | Pacheco J.M.,ATP Group | Santos F.C.,ATP Group | Santos F.C.,University of Lisbon | And 3 more authors.
Journal of Mathematical Biology | Year: 2016

Index-based insurances offer promising opportunities for climate-risk investments in developing countries. Indeed, contracts conditional on, e.g., weather or livestock indexes can be cheaper to set up than conventional indemnity-based insurances, while offering a safety net to vulnerable households, allowing them to eventually escape poverty traps. Moreover, transaction costs by insurance companies may be additionally reduced if contracts, instead of arranged with single households, are endorsed by collectives of households that bear the responsibility of managing the division of the insurance coverage by its members whenever the index is surpassed, allowing for additional flexibility in what concerns risk-sharing and also allowing insurance companies to avoid the costs associated with moral hazard. Here we resort to a population dynamics framework to investigate under which conditions household collectives may find collective index insurances attractive, when compared with individual index insurances. We assume risk sharing among the participants of each collective, and model collective action in terms of an N-person threshold game. Compared to less affordable individual index insurances, we show how collective index insurances lead to a coordination problem in which the adoption of index insurances may become the optimal decision, spreading index insurance coverage to the entire population. We further investigate the role of risk-averse and risk-prone behaviors, as well as the role of partial correlation between insurance coverage and actual loss of crops, and in which way these affect the original coordination thresholds. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.


News Article | December 13, 2016
Site: www.eurekalert.org

Following a 'keystone dialogue' between scientists and seafood industry, 8 of world's largest seafood companies issue 10-point statement committing to action on ocean stewardship Eight of the world's largest seafood companies have issued a ten-point statement committing to action on ocean stewardship following the first "keystone dialogue" between scientists and business leaders. Through the "keystone dialogues" - a new approach to engage major international businesses in global sustainability challenges - companies have committed to improving transparency and traceability and reducing illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing in their supply chains. Antibiotic use in aquaculture, greenhouse gas emissions and plastic pollution will also now be prioritized. And the businesses commit to eliminating any products in their supply chains that may have been obtained through "modern slavery including forced, bonded and child labour". The statement says signatories "represent a global force, not only in the operation of the seafood industry, but also in contributing to a resilient planet." It was signed by the two largest companies by revenues (Maruha Nichiro Corporation and Nippon Suisan Kaisha, Ltd), two of the largest tuna companies in the world (Thai Union Group PCL and Dongwon Industries), the two largest salmon farmers (Marine Harvest ASA and Cermaq - subsidiary of Mitsubishi Corporation) and the two largest aquafeeds companies (Skretting - subsidiary of Nutreco, and Cargill Aqua Nutrition). To implement the commitments the companies plan to create a new initiative - Seafood Business for Ocean Stewardship - that will, for the first time, connect wild capture fisheries to aquaculture businesses, connect European and North American companies to Asian companies and connect the global seafood business to science. The inaugural dialogue, initiated by the Stockholm Resilience Centre, took place 11-13 November at the Soneva Fushi Resort on the Maldives under the patronage of HRH Crown Princess Victoria of Sweden - Advocate for the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The initiative was a unique meeting between CEOs, senior leadership of major seafood companies, leading scientists from the Stockholm Resilience Centre, and advisors including The Honorable Dr Jane Lubchenco of Oregon State University and U.S. Science Envoy for the Ocean - U.S. State Department, Mr Volker Kuntzsch, CEO of Sanford Ltd., Mr Rupert Howes, CEO of Marine Stewardship Council, and Ambassador Magnus Robach, Swedish Ambassador to Japan. "We depend on a stable and resilient planet for human prosperity. However, science is already providing evidence that we have entered the Anthropocene, an epoch where humanity is now challenging the stability of Earth and its ocean," the statement goes on to say. The dialogue is the first between scientists and "keystone actors" a term coined in 2015 by Carl Folke and Henrik Österblom, science directors at the Stockholm Resilience Centre. Keystone species play a disproportionate role in ecosystems. Increasingly, large transnational corporations now play this role, for example, in the ocean and in rainforests. Österblom led research identifying the keystone actors in the world's oceans. The team identified 13 transnational corporations controlling 11-16% of wild marine catch and up to 40% of the largest and most valuable fish stocks. "We invited the leaders of these companies to a dialogue to build trust and develop a common understanding about the state of the ocean," said Österblom. "We were delighted so many companies accepted our offer. This shows they are aware of the urgency of the situation and willing to engage in these issues." According to related research published by a group of U.S. scientists in 2016, good management of global fisheries could lead to increase in annual catches of over 16 million metric tons and $53 billion in profit compared with remaining on the current trajectory. Stockholm Resilience Centre Director Johan Rockström said, "The small concentration of multinational companies means that CEOs are significant leverage points to effectively engage in transforming the entire seafood sector towards more sustainable practices". Chair of the dialogue, and founding director of Forum for the Future, Jonathon Porritt said, "It's hugely encouraging to see these leading companies in the global seafood industry making such critical commitments to help protect the world's ocean. This combination of world-class science and inspirational corporate leadership is a powerful one - and I've no doubt we'll need to see a lot more of it over the next few years." The organization was a key supporter of the dialogue. Myoung W Lee, CEO of Dongwon, one of the largest tuna companies, said, "It's remarkable that seafood companies came together to discuss the sustainability and development of the seafood industry and lay grounds for ocean stewardship. I am honored to have contributed to such a significant, historic event and will ensure that Dongwon does our part to uphold the agreement." Cermaq CEO Geir Molvik said, "Cermaq is very much engaged in Sustainable Development Goal 14 - life below water - and have encompassed the SDGs in our business strategy. Working with other keystone actors in the global seafood sector is important because it's only through partnerships we can efficiently pull in the same direction and make significant changes." President of Cargill Aqua Nutrition, a major aquafeed company, Einar Wathne said, "This initiative has a truly global perspective, from east to west. That makes me believe that we will have a powerful impact when addressing the challenges we have in our oceans and marine ecosystems, with the UN Sustainable Development Goals as our guideline." "Creating more awareness of the opportunities - and business necessities - of managing seafood sustainably should be a key priority for CEOs," added Jean-Baptiste Jouffray, PhD candidate at the Stockholm Resilience Centre and co-organiser of the event. The dialogue will now be followed up with additional meetings and dialogue between science and business. A next meeting is already scheduled for next year, where more concrete joint actions will be identified. Companies who attended and signed the statement: Maruha Nichiro Corporation Nippon Suisan Kaisha, Ltd Thai Union Group Marine Harvest ASA Dongwon Industries Nutreco (owner of Skretting) Cargill Aqua Nutrition Cermaq (subsidiary of Mitsubishi Corporation) Additional information about this initiative and the science that support it: http://www. http://www. http://www. http://www. Scientists Henrik Österblom, Deputy Science Director at Stockholm Resilience Centre: henrik.osterblom@su.se Jean-Baptiste Jouffray, PhD-student at the Stockholm Resilience Centre and the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences: jean-baptiste.jouffray@su.se Carl Folke, Science Director at Stockholm Resilience Centre and Director, Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences: carl.folke@beijer.kva.se Johan Rockström, Director, Stockholm Resilience Centre: johan.rockstrom@su.se The dialogue was a Stockholm Resilience Centre event supported by Forum for the Future and the Soneva Foundation. The Walton Family Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation funded the dialogue. Photographs from the dialogue available on request. Please contact jean-baptiste.jouffray@su.se


Polasky S.,University of Minnesota | Polasky S.,National Bureau of Economic Research | Polasky S.,Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics | de Zeeuw A.,Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics | And 2 more authors.
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management | Year: 2011

We analyze how the threat of a potential future regime shift affects optimal management. We use a simple general growth model to analyze four cases that involve combinations of stock collapse versus changes in system dynamics, and exogenous versus endogenous probabilities of regime shift. Prior work in economics has focused on stock collapse with endogenous probabilities and reaches ambiguous conclusions on whether the potential for regime shift will increase or decrease intensity of resource use and level of resource stock. We show that all other cases yield unambiguous results. In particular, with endogenous probability of regime shift that affects system dynamics the potential for regime shift causes optimal management to become precautionary in the sense of maintaining higher resource stock levels. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.


Walker B.,CSIRO | Pearson L.,CSIRO | Harris M.,University of Sydney | Maler K.-G.,Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics | And 3 more authors.
Environmental and Resource Economics | Year: 2010

This paper explores the consequences of changes in a system's resilience on the sustainability of resource allocation decisions, as measured by Inclusive Wealth (IW) (Arrow et al. in Environ Resour Econ 26:647-685, 2003). We incorporate an estimate of resilience in IW by taking account of known or suspected thresholds that can lead to irreversible (or practically irreversible) changes in the productivity and value of assets and hence social welfare. These thresholds allow us to identify policies or projects that may be leading to an increased risk of decline in capital stocks (the wealth of the region). Such risks are not reflected through usual measures of current system performance, e. g. agricultural production. We use the Goulburn-Broken Catchment in south-eastern Australia as a case study to explore the significance and practicality of including resilience in inclusive wealth estimates. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.


Metian M.,University of Stockholm | Pouil S.,University of Stockholm | Boustany A.,Duke University | Troell M.,University of Stockholm | Troell M.,Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics
Reviews in Fisheries Science and Aquaculture | Year: 2014

Increased global demand for bluefin tuna has triggered unsustainable fishing and many wild stocks have seen dramatic declines. Improved fisheries governance is now slowly stabilizing many stocks and recently bluefin aquaculture has emerged as an economic alternative route for supplying the market. Most of captured bluefin tuna directly enters the global seafood market, but an increasing part of catches are destined to aquaculture (17-37%) as bluefin aquaculture almost exclusively depends on wild specimens for stocking. Farming is mainly being performed in the Mediterranean region, Mexico, Australia, and Japan. Few studies have focused on the global importance and future role of bluefin aquaculture and there are confounding uncertainties related to production volumes and trends. This study provides an overview of global bluefin tuna aquaculture and identifies its direct and indirect interactions with wild fish stocks, outlines some of the challenges for future expansion as well as pointing out significant mismatch of production statistics. Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

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