News Article | February 21, 2017
Reform des regulatorischen Rahmens und der Bankenaufsicht in Angola Eine Delegation der Angolanischen Nationalbank (Banco Nacional de Angola, BNA) unter der Leitung von Gouverneur Valter Duarte da Silva traf sich in Paris mit der Banque de France und anderen französischen Institutionen des Bankwesens, um die institutionellen Beziehungen zu stärken und im französischen Finanzsektor auf die Reform des regulatorischen Rahmenwerks und der Bankenaufsicht in Angola aufmerksam zu machen. Mit der BNA hat Angola sehr zielgerichtete Bemühungen auf den Weg gebracht, um sein Finanzsystem schnell an internationale Aufsichtsnormen und bewährte Praktiken anzupassen und so die internationale Glaubwürdigkeit und das Vertrauen in das Finanzsystem von Angola wiederherzustellen und im Ausland von seinen jeweiligen Pendants anerkannt zu werden. Die BNA drängte die kommerziellen Banken in Angola dazu, bewährte Praktiken bei Finanzregelung und -überwachung zu übernehmen, und infolge dieser Bemühungen haben sieben der größten angolanischen Banken bereits die internationalen Standards zur Rechnungslegung und Finanzberichterstattung übernommen. "Wir rechnen damit, dass die Europäische Zentralbank und die United States Federal Reserve die Nationalbank von Angola in der ersten Jahreshälfte als ebenbürtige Instanz im Hinblick auf Bankenaufsicht und -regulierung anerkennen werden", so Valter Duarte da Silva. Der angolanische Besuch in der französischen Hauptstadt ist Teil eines Programms für Kontaktaufnahmen und Besuche der BNA in den Finanzzentren der Welt. Die BNA hat zahlreiche Kontakte mit internationalen Institutionen und Pendants aufgebaut, wie z. B. der Weltbank und dem Internationalen Währungsfonds, der Federal Reserve of the United States, der Bank of England, Banque de France, Banca d'Italia, Banco de Portugal und South African Reserve Bank, um gute Praktiken zur Bankaufsicht aus Europa und den Vereinigten Staaten zu übernehmen und zu zeigen, was bereits in Angola geleistet wurde, und überdies ihre Techniker und leitenden Angestellten auszubilden. "Unsere Arbeit wurde in einer Partnerschaft mit dem Internationalen Währungsfonds und der Weltbank und in enger Zusammenarbeit mit den Zentralbanken von Portugal, Südafrika, Italien, dem Vereinigten Königreich, Frankreich und den USA entwickelt, mit denen wir bereits etablierte Protokolle für die Schulung von Mitarbeitern und zur technischen Unterstützung haben", erklärte der Gouverneur der BNA. Die Delegation aus Angola traf sich in mehreren Sitzungen auf höchster Ebene mit dem Gouverneur der Banque de France, François Villeroy Galhau, und mit Vertretern französischer Banken wie z. B. BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole und Natixis, sowie von Institutionen wie der Fédération Bancaire Française, MEDEF International, der Groupe d'Action financière (Arbeitsgruppe für finanzielle Maßnahmen gegen Geldwäsche) und dem Pariser Club.
Dias F.,Banco de Portugal |
Pinheiro M.,Banco de Portugal |
Pinheiro M.,University of Lisbon |
Rua A.,Banco de Portugal
Journal of Forecasting | Year: 2010
The simplicity of the standard diffusion index model of Stock and Watson has certainly contributed to its success among practitioners, resulting in a growing body of literature on factor-augmented forecasts. However, as pointed out by Bai and Ng, the ranked factors considered in the forecasting equation depend neither on the variable to be forecast nor on the forecasting horizon. We propose a refinement of the standard approach that retains the computational simplicity while coping with this limitation. Our approach consists of generating a weighted average of all the principal components, the weights depending both on the eigenvalues of the sample correlation matrix and on the covariance between the estimated factor and the targeted variable at the relevant horizon. This 'targeted diffusion index' approach is applied to US data and the results show that it outperforms considerably the standard approach in forecasting several major macroeconomic series. Moreover, the improvement is more significant in the final part of the forecasting evaluation period. © 2009 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.
Castellani M.,University of Bergen |
Dos Santos E.A.,Banco de Portugal
Studies in Computational Intelligence | Year: 2014
This chapter investigates the use of different artificial intelligence and classical techniques for forecasting the monthly yield of the US 10-year Treasury bonds from a set of four economic indicators. The task is particularly challenging due to the sparseness of the data samples and the complex interactions amongst the variables. At the same time, it is of high significance because of the important and paradigmatic role played by the US market in the world economy. Four data-driven artificial intelligence approaches are considered: a manually built fuzzy logic model, a machine learned fuzzy logic model, a self-organising map model, and a multi-layer perceptron model. Their prediction accuracy is compared with that of two classical approaches: a statistical ARIMA model and an econometric error correction model. The algorithms are evaluated on a complete series of end-month US 10-year Treasury bonds yields and economic indicators from 1986:1 to 2004:12. In terms of prediction accuracy and reliability, the best results are obtained by the three parametric regression algorithms, namely the econometric, the statistical, and the multi-layer perceptron model. Due to the sparseness of the learning data samples, the manual and the automatic fuzzy logic approaches fail to follow with adequate precision the range of variations of the US 10-year Treasury bonds. For similar reasons, the self-organising map model performs unsatisfactorily. Analysis of the results indicates that the econometric model has a slight edge over the statistical and the multi-layer perceptron models. This suggests that pure data-driven induction may not fully capture the complicated mechanisms ruling the changes in interest rates. Overall, the prediction accuracy of the best models is only marginally better than the prediction accuracy of a basic one-step lag predictor. This result highlights the difficulty of the modelling task and, in general, the difficulty of building reliable predictors for financial markets. © 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland.
Perelman J.,New University of Lisbon |
Felix S.,Banco de Portugal |
Felix S.,New University of Lisbon |
Santana R.,New University of Lisbon
Health Policy | Year: 2015
The Great Recession started in Portugal in 2009, coupled with severe austerity. This study examines its impact on hospital care utilization, interpreted as caused by demand-side effects (related to variations in population income and health) and supply-side effects (related to hospitals' tighter budgets and reduced capacity).The database included all in-patient stays at all Portuguese NHS hospitals over the 2001-2012 period (n= 17.7 millions). We analyzed changes in discharge rates, casemix index, and length of stay (LOS), using a before-after methodology. We additionally measured the association of health care indicators to unemployment.A 3.2% higher rate of discharges was observed after 2009. Urgent stays increased by 2.5%, while elective in-patient stays decreased by 1.4% after 2011. The LOS was 2.8% shorter after the crisis onset, essentially driven by the 4.5% decrease among non-elective stays. A one percentage point increase in unemployment rate was associated to a 0.4% increase in total volume, a 2.3% decrease in day cases, and a 0.1% decrease in LOS.The increase in total and urgent cases may reflect delayed out-patient care and health deterioration; the reduced volume of elective stays possibly signal a reduced capacity; finally, the shorter stays may indicate either efficiency-enhancing measures or reduced quality. © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.
Moreira S.,Banco de Portugal |
Barros P.P.,New University of Lisbon
Health Economics | Year: 2010
Double health insurance coverage exists when an individual benefits from more than one health insurance plan at the same time. We examine the impact of such supplementary insurance on the utilisation of doctor consultations in Portugal, taking advantage of institutional features which make double coverage plausibly exogenous. The novelty is that the analysis is carried out for different points of the conditional distribution, not only for its mean location, within the context of count data modelling and without imposing restrictive parametric assumptions. Results indicate that double coverage creates additional utilisation of health care across the whole outcome distribution for both public and private second layers of health insurance coverage but with greater magnitude in the latter group. We unveil that this additional consumption effect is relatively smaller for more frequent users. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
News Article | November 29, 2016
LISBON, 29-Nov-2016 — /EuropaWire/ — Lúcia Leitão, the head of the Banking Conduct Supervision Department of Banco de Portugal, has been appointed Vice-Chair of the International Financial Consumer Protection Organisation (FinCoNet), an organisation recognised by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the G20, receiving secretarial support from the OECD. The appointment was announced at FinCoNet’s Annual General Meeting that took place in Jakarta, Indonesia, between 15 and 17 November. FinCoNet brings together supervisory authorities from all over the world, and seeks to promote best practices related with market conduct and the protection of consumers of banking and credit products, contributing to enhancing confidence in the financial markets.
Rodrigues P.M.M.,Banco de Portugal |
Salish N.,University of Bonn
Journal of Cardiovascular Translational Research | Year: 2015
This paper proposes threshold models to analyze and forecast interval-valued time series. A relatively simple algorithm is proposed to obtain least square estimates of the threshold and slope parameters. The construction of forecasts based on the proposed model and methods for the analysis of their forecast performance are also introduced and discussed, as well as forecasting procedures based on the combination of different models. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methods, an empirical application on a weekly sample of S&P500 index returns is provided. The results obtained are encouraging and compare very favorably to available procedures. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Amador J.,Banco de Portugal
Energy Economics | Year: 2012
This article compares the energy content in manufacturing exports in a set of 30 advanced and emerging economies and examines its evolution from 1995 to 2005, combining information from the OECD input-output matrices and international trade data in 17 manufacturing sectors. In addition, the article suggests a methodology to disentangle export structure and sectoral energy efficiency effects, presenting results according to technological categories. The article concludes that Brazil, India and, mostly, China, present a high energy content in manufacturing exports, which has increased from 1995 to 2005. Conversely, many advanced economies, notably in Europe and North America, which showed energy contents below the world average in 1995, reinforced their position as exporters with relatively lower energy usage. The contribution of export structure and energy efficiency effects to explain differences in the energy content of exports draws attention to the situation of China. This country increased its relative energy usage in the exports of all technological categories of goods. This effect was reinforced by the stronger export specialization in high-tech products and hindered by a comparatively lower specialization in medium-high-tech products. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.
PubMed | Banco de Portugal
Type: Journal Article | Journal: Health economics | Year: 2010
Double health insurance coverage exists when an individual benefits from more than one health insurance plan at the same time. We examine the impact of such supplementary insurance on the utilisation of doctor consultations in Portugal, taking advantage of institutional features which make double coverage plausibly exogenous. The novelty is that the analysis is carried out for different points of the conditional distribution, not only for its mean location, within the context of count data modelling and without imposing restrictive parametric assumptions.Results indicate that double coverage creates additional utilisation of health care across the whole outcome distribution for both public and private second layers of health insurance coverage but with greater magnitude in the latter group. We unveil that this additional consumption effect is relatively smaller for more frequent users.
News Article | November 29, 2016
LISBON, 29-Nov-2016 — /EuropaWire/ — Every year, Banco de Portugal awards a prize to the best undergraduate students in Economics, recognising merit in a fundamental area of study for the mission of a central bank. This prize has been renamed the Professor Jacinto Nunes Prize, in honour of one of Banco de Portugal’s former governors. Through the Jacinto Nunes Prize, Banco de Portugal distinguishes, for each educational establishment selected, the student with the best final average in Economics in the preceding academic year. The prize-winners for the academic year 2015/2016 were honoured today in a formal session at Banco de Portugal’s Head Office in Lisbon, at which the Governor, Carlos da Silva Costa was present.