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Baruffi F.,Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dellAlto Adriatico | Cisotto A.,Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dellAlto Adriatico | Cimolino A.,Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dellAlto Adriatico | Ferri M.,Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dellAlto Adriatico | And 18 more authors.
Science of the Total Environment | Year: 2012

Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life. + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced information about the potential variations of the water balance components (e.g. river discharge, groundwater level and volume) due to climate change. Such projections were used to develop potential hazard scenarios for the case study area, to be further applied within climate change risk assessment studies for groundwater resources and associated ecosystems. This paper describes the models' chain and the methodological approach adopted in the TRUST project and analyzes the hazard scenarios produced in order to investigate climate change risks for the case study area. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.


Baruffi F.,Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dellAlto Adriatico | Bisaglia M.,Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dellAlto Adriatico | Cappelletto M.,Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dellAlto Adriatico | Pasini S.,Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dellAlto Adriatico | And 5 more authors.
Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Water Management | Year: 2013

The Trust project, funded by the European Commission's Life+ programme and the Italian Ministry of Environment, aims to identify adaptation and mitigation measures to counteract the impacts of climate change on the groundwater of the upper plain in the Veneto and Friuli regions in northeastern Italy. Intensive groundwater abstraction over recent decades has resulted in declining water table levels; this problem, common to many other places in the world, will be exacerbated by future temperature increases unless appropriate solutions are adopted. Trust aims to implement a water balance modelling tool to support institutions in formulating sustainable water management planning policies and best practices. This paper reviews the development and application of the water balance model that simulates water deficit affecting summer crops using agronomic and climatic data at small spatial and temporal resolution. Remote sensing identification methods were employed to map irrigated crops. Projections on the water deficit as a function of climate change have used future precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns derived from climate simulations (SRES-IPCC scenarios A1B and A2) of the Mediterranean region for the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Model outputs showed that, due to climate change, water deficits for summer crops could be of the order of 400 mm, while the balance model showed that climate change can lead to a reduction of average groundwater resource of about 5-10%, especially in the apical areas of the high plain. However, a significant part of the future water deficit might be recovered through rationalisation of water withdrawal and managed aquifer recharge areas.


PubMed | Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dellAlto Adriatico
Type: | Journal: The Science of the total environment | Year: 2012

Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced information about the potential variations of the water balance components (e.g. river discharge, groundwater level and volume) due to climate change. Such projections were used to develop potential hazard scenarios for the case study area, to be further applied within climate change risk assessment studies for groundwater resources and associated ecosystems. This paper describes the models chain and the methodological approach adopted in the TRUST project and analyzes the hazard scenarios produced in order to investigate climate change risks for the case study area.

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