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Schmitz C.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | van Meijl H.,Wageningen University | Kyle P.,Pacific Northwest National Laboratory | Nelson G.C.,International Food Policy Research Institute | And 15 more authors.
Agricultural Economics (United Kingdom) | Year: 2014

Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10-25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland. © 2013 International Association of Agricultural Economists.

Rose S.K.,EPRI | Ahammad H.,Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and science ABARES | Eickhout B.,PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency | Fisher B.,BAEconomics Pty Ltd | And 5 more authors.
Energy Economics | Year: 2012

This paper evaluates the role of land in long-run climate stabilization mitigation scenarios. The details of land modeling for common stabilization policy scenarios are, for the first time, presented, contrasted, and assessed. While we find significant differences in approaches across modeling platforms, all the approaches conclude that land based mitigation - agriculture, forestry, and biomass liquid and solid energy substitutes - could be a steady and significant part of the cost-effective portfolio of mitigation strategies; thereby, reducing stabilization cost and increasing flexibility for achieving more aggressive climate targets. However, large fossil fuel emissions reductions are still required, and there are substantial uncertainties, with little agreement about abatement magnitudes. Across the scenarios, land mitigation options contribute approximately 100 to 340. GtC equivalent abatement over the century, 15 to 40% of the total required for stabilization, with bio-energy providing up to 15% of total primary energy. Long-run land climate modeling is rapidly evolving with critical challenges to address. In characterizing current capability, this paper hopes to stimulate future research and the next generation of land modeling and provide a point of comparison for energy and climate policies considering bio-energy, reduced deforestation and degradation, and cost containment. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Valin H.,International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis | Sands R.D.,U.S. Department of Agriculture | van der Mensbrugghe D.,Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAO | Nelson G.C.,International Food Policy Research Institute | And 16 more authors.
Agricultural Economics (United Kingdom) | Year: 2014

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59-98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is -6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller. © 2013 International Association of Agricultural Economists.

Kirby D.S.,University of Wollongong | Ward P.,Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and science ABARES
Marine Policy | Year: 2014

Mitigating the environmental impact of commercial fishing, by avoiding, minimizing and compensating for adverse effects, is core business for fisheries management authorities globally. The complex interplay of ecological, economic, and social considerations has often resulted in bycatch management being reactive, confrontational and costly. In many cases it has been difficult to demonstrate success and to establish whether bycatch management has been efficient or effective. This article proposes standards for bycatch management following reviews of literature, international agreements and Australian domestic fishery management policies, and consideration by many technical experts and several stakeholder representatives. The standards have been developed using Australian Commonwealth fisheries - and the international fisheries agreements to which Australia is party - as a baseline, but should be applicable to both domestic and regional/international governance systems. The proposed standards involve quantifying fisheries bycatch, agreeing on operational objectives, assessing the effects of fishing on bycatch populations, establishing the cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures, and evaluating performance. The standards encourage domestic management measures that are consistent with the guidance and requirements of international agreements and regional fisheries management organisations. The importance of engaging stakeholders throughout the process is recognised. The standards provide a framework for measuring performance and a checklist of actions for managing bycatch at a fishery level. They have the potential to facilitate the development of more strategic and effective approaches to bycatch management, with defined goals, monitoring systems, and adaptive decision-making. This review of past bycatch management, including the application of the proposed standards to the mitigation of shark bycatch in an Australian longline fishery, demonstrates that the proposed standards are operationally feasible but that they have not always been applied. Specifically, monitoring the performance of bycatch management measures has not always followed their implementation. © 2013.

Mi R.,Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and science ABARES | Ahammad H.,Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and science ABARES | Hitchins N.,Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and science ABARES | Heyhoe E.,Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and science ABARES
Energy Economics | Year: 2012

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) and emerging renewable energy technologies including wind, solar, geothermal and biomass are commonly considered as possible solutions for the electricity sector transitioning to low-carbon future. However, developing and deploying clean electricity technologies is not a cost-free exercise and it will draw resources from other technologies and production sectors. In this paper four mitigation scenarios with identical emissions pathways but with varying degrees of uptake of clean electricity technologies including CCS and emerging renewable energy technologies, are simulated and their welfare implications are analysed using ABARES' Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM). To capture the range of costs and speeds of developing and deploying clean electricity technologies, technological profiles within electricity and other production sectors are determined endogenously within GTEM allowing a fast growth in one technology at the expense of other technologies. With this induced technology innovation modelling and the specific scenarios, the results presented in this paper suggest that, among Asia's three biggest economies, China may benefit from devoting resources to further developing and deploying CCS and emerging renewable energy technologies while Japan and India may gain from devoting resources to certain conventional clean energy technologies. The modelling results also suggest that coal and gas imports into Asia under the mitigation scenarios will be influenced by, among other things, the size of the carbon price, the extent of fossil fuel dependencies, and, in the case of coal, the relativities of emissions intensities of mining across economies. © 2012.

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