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Gerboni R.,Polytechnic University of Turin | Grosso D.,Polytechnic University of Turin | Lavagno E.,Polytechnic University of Turin | Kanudia A.,KanORS EMR | Tosato G.,ASATREM
Lecture Notes in Energy | Year: 2015

Energy modelling can provide a knowledge basis for tackling the security of energy supply issue at different geographical levels. This chapter presents an application of the coupling of the global TIMES Integrated Assessment Model and of the Pan European TIMES model through a series of trade links described and characterised in the REACCESS corridor model. The coupling was developed during the EU FP7 REACCESS project and was further improved and updated during a follow-up phase. The application focuses on the analysis of security of supply to Europe via energy corridors. A new methodology for the assessment of energy security, addressing the risk associated to each supply, is presented together with a scenario analysis related to some of the most populated of the EU’s Member States and to the European Union as a whole. The scenario analysis results show a sample of the possible assessments that stakeholders might be willing to rely on to address the effects of communitarian policies and targets: the preformed analysis, for example, unveils that a risk reduction at communitarian level may not univocally be translated into a benefit for individual Member States. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015. Source

Chiodi A.,University College Cork | Giannakidis G.,Center for Renewable Energy Sources CRES | Labriet M.,Eneris Environment Energy Consultants | Gallachoir B.,University College Cork | Tosato G.,ASATREM
Lecture Notes in Energy | Year: 2015

The role that energy modelling plays in improving the evidence base underpinning policy decisions is being increasingly recognized and valued. The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program is a unique network of energy modelling teams from all around the world, cooperating to establish, maintain and expand a consistent energy/economy/environment/engineering analytical capability mainly based on the MARKAL/TIMES family of models, under the aegis of the International Energy Agency. Energy systems models like MARKAL/TIMES models provide technology rich, least cost future energy systems pathways and have been used extensively to explore least cost options for transitioning to an energy secure system and a low carbon future. This chapter presents an overview of ETSAP’s history and objectives, introduces the main principles of energy system modelling and summarizes the different chapters of the book. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015. Source

Kerimray A.,Nazarbayev University | Baigarin K.,Nazarbayev University | Bakdolotov A.,Nazarbayev University | De Miglio R.,E4SMA | Tosato G.C.,ASATREM
Lecture Notes in Energy | Year: 2015

Kazakhstan is one of the most energy-intensive countries in the world, almost 4 times higher than the world average and 7 times higher than the OECD average. There are various reasons for inefficiencies in Kazakhstan’s energy system: administrative and economic (statistical double counting of energy flows, above normative losses and low profitability), geographic (the extremely continental climate and low population density) and technical considerations (high share of coal in generation mix, high wear on main and auxiliary equipment in energy intensive sectors, high wear on electric lines, dilapidation of housing stock, and an absence of control systems for energy savings) all contribute to the high energy intensity. This study explores energy efficiency potential by analyzing the evolution of the Kazakh energy system. All the technical inefficiencies have been taken into consideration through the explicit representation of existing inefficient technologies/chains in a TIMES-based model. Under the assumptions of a market-oriented development of the economic system, even without specific policies (Business as Usual), the model suggests significant energy efficiency improvement: 22 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) by 2030 and a 40 % reduction in energy intensity of GDP by 2030. The more ambitious policy target of reducing energy intensity of GDP by 40 % by 2020 also appears easily achievable via economically viable solutions. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015. Source

Kerimray A.,Nazarbayev University | Baigarin K.,Nazarbayev University | De Miglio R.,E4SMA | Tosato G.,ASATREM
Climate Policy | Year: 2015

This article analyses Kazakhstan's climate change and energy efficiency policies by making use of a modelling platform that provides a consistent framework for testing dynamic hypotheses. The effects of different P&M have been evaluated as the differences between two scenarios according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines. It concludes that domestic climate mitigation objectives are synergistic with energy efficiency goals, and the set of policies adopted to achieve both objectives should be planned, implemented, and enforced jointly. It also quantifies the GHG emissions reduction if the transition to a market economy proceeds quickly and successfully (∼ −100 MtCO2e in 2030), and if a mitigation-specific policy is implemented (∼ −200 MtCO2e in 2030) compared to a baseline projection, and it highlights the need to prepare more robust and detailed energy balances and inventory of emissions in order to develop and monitor the progress of the policies. © 2015 Taylor & Francis Source

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