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Akbilgic O.,Oak Ridge National Laboratory | Akbilgic O.,University of Calgary | Doluweera G.,University of Calgary | Doluweera G.,Alberta Energy Research Institute | And 3 more authors.
Applied Energy | Year: 2015

The estimated cost of reducing carbon emissions through the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in power systems vary by a factor of five or more across studies published over the past 8 years. The objective of this paper is to understand the contribution of techno-economic variables and modeling assumptions to explain the large variability in the published international literature on cost of avoided CO2 (CACO2) using statistical methods. We carry out a meta-analysis of the variations in reported CACO2 for coal and natural gas power plants with CCS. We use regression and correlation analysis to explain the variation in reported CACO2. The regression models built in our analysis have strong predictive power (R2 > 0.90) for all power plant types. We find that the parameters that have high variability and large influence on the value of CACO2 estimated are levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) penalty, capital cost of CCS, and efficiency penalty. In addition, the selection of baseline technologies and more attention and transparency around the calculation of capital costs will reduce the variability across studies to better reflect technology uncertainty and improve comparability across studies. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

Zhang Y.Y.,Alberta Energy Research Institute | Sun Z.D.,China University of Petroleum - Beijing | Han J.F.,Petrochina | Wang H.Y.,China University of Petroleum - Beijing | Fan C.Y.,China University of Petroleum - Beijing
Geofluids | Year: 2015

The storage spaces within deeply buried Ordovician paleokarst reservoirs in the Tarim Basin are mostly secondary and characterized by strong heterogeneity and some degree of anisotropy. The types of fluids that fill the spaces within these reservoirs are of great importance for hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation. However, fluid identification from seismic data is often controversial in this area because the seismic velocity for this particular reservoir could be significantly influenced by many factors, including pore shapes, porosity, fluid types, and mineral contents. In this study, we employ the differential effective medium-Gassmann rock physics model to interpret and discuss the characteristics of conventional karstic carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin that are filled with different fluids (oil, gas, and water) using logging data and thus objectively build corresponding fluid identification criteria. These criteria are subsequently evaluated by amplitude versus offset (AVO) forward analysis based on typical logging data and further applied to ascertain the reservoir fluid types in two different areas in the Tarim Basin based on prestack inversion results. For conventional carbonate reservoirs, gas can be distinguished from heavy oil and water, but heavy oil and water are broadly similar on seismic data. For condensate carbonate reservoirs, water can be differentiated from light oil (i.e., condensates) and gas, but light oil and gas demonstrate substantial similarities in terms of their seismic responses. The predicted fluid results are in good agreement with the results of drilling and oil testing. In particular, modeling the seismically resolvable reservoirs in the carbonate strata in the Tarim Basin, which have needle- and sphere-shaped storage spaces (pore aspect ratio > 0.3) and clay content that is lower than 5%, indicates that fluid properties could be properly evaluated if the porosity is larger than 5% for conventional carbonate reservoirs and >7% for condensate carbonate reservoirs. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Millington D.,Alberta Energy Research Institute
Geopolitics of Energy | Year: 2013

The skilled labor shortage remains a significant concern, but new oil sands projects will not come online due to pipeline constraints regardless of whether or not there are enough skilled personnel to work on these projects. Hence, when the US government rejected TransCanada's Keystone XL project, originally intended as a 700,000-900,000 barrels per day (BPD) line to carry mainly oil sands streams from Hardisty, Alberta to the Gulf Coast via Cushing Oklahoma, it was a major impediment for the industry and provincial economy; it has become a focal point of the political and environmental pro- and anti-oil sands debate in the US. Given current constraints and opposition to expansion of existing pipeline capacity and new pipeline developments, companies have been proactive at exploring other transport options such as rail. It seems that producers have come full circle, returning to shipping crude in rail cars as had been done in the industry's early days.

Xu T.,China University of Petroleum - Beijing | Baosheng Z.,China University of Petroleum - Beijing | Lianyong F.,China University of Petroleum - Beijing | Masri M.,Alberta Energy Research Institute | Honarvar A.,Alberta Energy Research Institute
Energy | Year: 2011

It is generally acknowledged that the petroleum industry plays an important role in China's national economic and social development. The direct, indirect, and induced impacts of China's petroleum industry are analyzed in this study by using the Input-Output approach. The study also considers the main challenges that China's economy might face in the future. The research results suggest the following: (1) The total economic impacts coefficients on output, given each unit of final demands change in extraction of petroleum and processing of petroleum, are 1.9180 and 3.2747 respectively, and the corresponding economic impacts coefficients on GDP are 1.0872 and 0.9001 respectively; (2) Extraction of petroleum has a more direct impact on GDP, while processing of petroleum has a greater effect on the total output; (3) Extraction of petroleum's total economic impacts coefficients on both output and GDP have remained stable in recent years after a period of long decline; processing of petroleum's total economic impacts coefficient on output is steadily increasing; (4) Import uncertainty, the likelihood of rising oil prices, and net oil exports caused by items manufactured with petroleum products (i.e. " Made in China" goods) are the main challenges the petroleum industry will cause for China's overall economy. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Cubi E.,University of Calgary | Doluweera G.,University of Calgary | Doluweera G.,Alberta Energy Research Institute | Bergerson J.,University of Calgary | Bergerson J.,University of Calgary
Applied Energy | Year: 2015

Current building energy and GHG emissions assessments do not account for the variable performance of the electric grid. Incorporating hourly grid variability into building assessment methods can help to better prioritize energy efficiency measures that result in the largest environmental benefits. This article proposes a method to incorporate GHG emissions intensity changes due to grid variability into building environmental assessment. The proposed method encourages building systems that reduce electricity use during peak periods while accounting for differences in grid GHG emissions intensity (i.e., peak shaving is more strongly encouraged in grids that have GHG intense peak generation).A set of energy saving building technologies are evaluated in a set of building variants (office, residential) and grid types (hydro/nuclear dominated, coal/gas dominated) to demonstrate the proposed method. Differences between total GHG emissions calculated with the new method compared with the standard (which assumes a constant GHG emissions intensity throughout the year) are in the 5-15% range when the contribution of electricity to total GHG emissions is more significant. The influence of the method on the assessment of the relative performance of some energy efficiency measures is much higher. For example, the estimated GHG emissions savings with heat pumps and photovoltaics can change by -40% and +20%, respectively, using the new assessment method instead of the standard. These differences in GHG emissions estimates can influence building design decisions. The new method could be implemented easily, and would lead to better decision making and more accurate estimates of the emissions from buildings and building technologies. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

Honarvar A.,Alberta Energy Research Institute
Computational Economics | Year: 2010

An Engle-Granger two-step procedure is commonly used to estimate cointegrating vectors and consequently asymmetric error-correction models. This study uses Monte Carlo methods and demonstrates that the Engle-Granger two-step method leads to biased estimates of asymmetric parameters and in some cases suggests symmetry in the asymmetric data generating process (DGP). The single equation error correction models (SEECM) based on ordinary least squares (OLS) and nonlinear least squares (NLS) are employed for simultaneous estimation of the cointegrating vector and the ECM. The SEECMs perform better than Engle-Granger two-step procedures in estimating the asymmetry and making inferences on its existence in various DGPs. We show that SEECM estimations are less biased and inferences are less likely to be misleading compared to the Engle-Granger two-step procedure. Unlike the asymmetric specifications based on Engle-Granger two-step approach, the asymmetric SEECMs do not refute the possibility of long-run asymmetry by allowing different cointegrating vectors for positive and negative regimes. Examining the model with real data also supports the Monte Carlo results. While the conventional approaches imply symmetry, the proposed asymmetric SEECM, which has been embedded in a Threshold Autoregressive model, uncovers asymmetry at the presence of different cointegrating vectors for positive and negative regimes. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Tippee B.,Alberta Energy Research Institute
Oil and Gas Journal | Year: 2012

Production of bitumen from the Canadian oil sands can reach 3.9 million b/d in 2020 and peak at 6.8 million b/d in 2038 before receding to 6.2 million b/d by 2045 under especially favorable conditions of economics, politics, and technology. For perspective, the 2045 bitumen projection in the reference case is slightly below last year's average production of crude oil and lease condensate by the US, the 2011 output rate of which ranked third among all producing countries. The reference case assumes member-nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, representing developed countries, have emerged from recession and will continue to recover, supporting slow, steady growth in demand for oil. CERI's estimates include costs of compliance with US and Albertan emissions policies harmonized with the current provincial regime. For SAGD, they assume average quality reservoirs.

Walden T.,Alberta Energy Research Institute
Geopolitics of Energy | Year: 2012

The Paul Scherrer Institut has done an analysis for the period 1970-2008 of the comparative risks associated with the natural gas, oil, and other energy supply chains, with only partial results for LPG and none specific to LNG. There is persuasive expert opinion that LPG import terminals deserve greater scrutiny for public safety hazards than would an equivalent-sized LNG terminal. On the other hand, the safety requirements for LPG marine terminals are minimal. LNG as a potential target has not, however, escaped the attention of terrorist and counter-terrorist organizations. The LNG tanker industry is very proud of having logged over 100 million miles without a shipboard death, although there have been several fatal accidents at NGL facilities. Usually the fuel in the undamaged tank expands with rising temperature and releases pressure through a safety vent.

Alizadeh B.B.,Alberta Energy Research Institute
Geopolitics of Energy | Year: 2011

The political upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa started in Tunisia in 2011, leading to the swift toppling of its government. In Jordan, King Abdullah dissolved the government, but Egypt's demonstrations caught the attention of the world and ultimately unseated the country's lifetime president, Hosni Mubarak, who headed a despotic regime for thirty long years. Meanwhile, the Cairo Criminal Court is engaged in a trial of several officials for exporting gas to Israel for prices below the official market price. The deal allegedly incurred losses worth over $714 million to Egypt. The new Egyptian government has been reviewing deals signed during Mubarak's rule. Because of the important role the MENA region plays in meeting world energy demand, major Western oil consuming countries are caught in a very difficult situation. The irony is that consuming regions also understand that despotic regimes can anytime be faced with popular uprisings which imperil the flow of oil.

Rozhon J.,Alberta Energy Research Institute
Geopolitics of Energy | Year: 2011

Jon Rozhon discusses whether the Keystone XL pipeline project is in the US national interest. Initial reaction from environmental groups was elation for a hard-fought victory; industry, on the other hand, felt the blow and many wondered aloud whether or not the pipeline would ever be built. Prior to all of this high drama, when opposition to Keystone XL and other proposed crude bitumen pipelines was beginning to stir, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) conducted research to estimate the effects on GDP and employment in North America of oil sands development. CERI has generated GDP and employment projections using a multiregional Input Output (I/O) model. This model is based on Statistics Canada and US Bureau of Economic Analysis I/O tables and includes a trade flow matrix to handle the flows between the two countries.

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